On August 31, with the final disclosure of the semi-annual report of Longji Green Energy, the disclosure of the semi-annual report of A-share photovoltaic listed companies in 2026 officially ended. In the first half of the year, the photovoltaic industry continued to "bleed like a river".
Thirty-four listed companies in the main photovoltaic industry chain lost nearly 25 billion yuan in net profit in the first half of the year, and the loss continued to expand. Longji, Jingke, Tongwei, Jingao, Tianhe and TCL Central have lost more than 20 billion yuan . The
serious oversupply and the cliff-like decline in demand have led to the continuous bottoming of the market and the erosion of the profits of enterprises. In addition, in the context of oversaturated domestic market, photovoltaic enterprises collectively increased overseas market shipments in the first half of the year, only to be cut by exchange rate losses due to exchange fluctuations. When will the
photovoltaic industry really usher in a turning point? Then for a long time, whether it is public speech or investor exchanges, few people dare to give a clear prediction, when will spring come? Looking forward to the
future market trend, many enterprises have given clear judgments in their first half performance presentations and other occasions.
Longji Green Energy: The most difficult period has passed
. On the afternoon of September 3, at the online presentation of the semi-annual performance of Longji Green Energy in 2026, Zhong Baoshen, chairman and general manager of Longji Green Energy, said that the photovoltaic industry was still in a deep adjustment cycle, and the enterprises in the whole industry chain were generally under pressure.
Regarding the next performance trend, Zhong Baoshen said that with the continuous landing of the national "anti-involution" policy, the price of products in the industry chain is expected to stabilize and rebound, the most difficult period has passed , and the company's follow-up business situation is expected to gradually improve.
JinkoSolar: PV demand will hit bottom in 2026, and 20-30% of its production capacity will be withdrawn from the market
next year. JinkoSolar will exchange information and share its judgment in the semi-annual report performance statement disclosed on August 27 that the PV market demand will hit bottom in 2026. Because of the promotion of electricity market reform, the investment model of power investors and the phased pressure on large-scale power station projects in the demand of household market is strong, and the demand of industrial and commercial market is healthy.
Looking forward to 2027, Jingke Energy believes that with the reconstruction of investment model and the gradual stabilization of new power system cognition, as well as the planning and gradual landing of large-scale transmission and distribution projects, the demand for large-scale ground power plants will recover.
At the same time, starting next year, the mandatory national standard for photovoltaics will be implemented. Affected by this, Jingke Energy judges that the industry is expected to withdraw 20-30% of its production capacity from the market from January 1 next year. Next year, the photovoltaic market demand may increase slightly, and the supply and demand pattern will improve quarter by quarter.
In addition, Jingke Energy lowered its annual Looking ahead to 2027, Trina Solar believes that next year's photovoltaic demand is expected to continue to grow on the basis of this year, due to the rising global energy demand, the acceleration of energy transformation brought about by changes in the geopolitical situation, the increase of energy storage allocation rate and the deepening of the application of new energy in the grid system; Although demand in the Middle East is affected by geopolitics, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America are still growing, and the industry as a whole shows a clear upward trend.
At the same time, Trina Solar believes that with the landing of the new mandatory national standard for components next year, Trina Solar judges that the industry will eliminate about 20% of the production capacity of battery components.
Jingao Technology: The industry has entered a small and stable growth process, and the combination of light and storage is closer
. On the evening of August 28, Jingao Technology looked forward to the future in its disclosure of investor relations activity records. It is believed that the photovoltaic industry will enter a small and stable growth process in the next few years, and the probability of substantial growth will not occur, but the combination of photovoltaic and storage will be closer .
"Next year, the probability of China's market will be flat or grow slightly: the rush to install in 2025 and the export tax rebate policy will have a certain impact on the demand in 2026, which will be the year of adjustment and the installed capacity will be low ." There will be an increase in 2027; the average increase in 2026-2030 of the 15th Five-Year Plan is about 200 GW; After the implementation of the policy rules, the wait-and-see mood is expected to subside, the mechanism price is straightened out, the green power is directly connected, the energy storage policy is released, the rate of return of the power station can be measured, and the restrained demand will be released one after another; AI computing power and data center will be the fastest growth track of optical storage integration in the next five years, and the capacity of UHV lines and distributed transformers will be cancelled to open the way. Overseas markets continue to grow steadily, energy storage grows faster , driven by energy security, rapid growth of AIDC, high electricity prices in Europe and the United States, the economy of light storage enters the dual drive of parity and arbitrage, and negative electricity prices and absorption pressure in Europe create energy storage demand in reverse.
In addition, for the annual shipment target, Jingao Technology said: "Considering the balance of volume and price, the company's shipment target has been revised downward this year, and the annual shipment is planned to be around 50GW."
On August 31, Atlas said in its disclosed record of investor relations activities in August that the overall operating environment of the photovoltaic industry is still grim, and the industry is still in a period of deep adjustment. Atlas judges that China's photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to decline annually this year, and the global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to decline for the first time in many years.
But it also said that at the bottom of the cycle, more and more positive signals are gradually emerging . With the upgrading of energy efficiency standards, the acceleration of technology iteration and the enhancement of industry self-discipline consensus, although the supply-demand relationship can not be restored to the level that supports the overall improvement of industry profitability in the short term, the industry is gradually entering a new stage of supply-side adjustment.
In the future, with the new demand brought by technology iteration, supply-side adjustment and energy storage application, photovoltaic business will enter a stable state of development after a period of time. Capacity clearance is expected to continue for some time, and only companies that can differentiate themselves can achieve growth.
Hengdian Dongci: PV industry demand is expected to improve
in the second half of the year On the evening of August 20, Hengdian Dongci disclosed the latest record of investor relations activities, believing that the domestic market demand in the second half of the year is expected to be better than that in the first half of the year from the perspective of project construction progress. Large base projects still have some certainty , but factors such as the two taxes on photovoltaic land and the uncertainty of the rate of return on distributed projects may still affect the pace of domestic installation next year.
For overseas markets, Hengdian Dongci said that mature markets such as Europe are expected to be relatively stable, and some emerging markets still have room for growth. The US market is greatly affected by the policy. Overall, overseas demand will remain resilient, but there will be differences between different regions.
For the recent "anti-involution" activities in the photovoltaic industry, Hengdian Dongci believes that this round of "anti-involution" may be better in the degree of marketization and more in line with market rules, so the possibility of actual landing and implementation is relatively high . At the same time, after the adjustment of the industry in the past year, many enterprises continue to bear the pressure of operation, and the urgency of improving the state of low-price competition is higher than that of the previous period, which also helps to improve the implementation of relevant measures.
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