GCL Group Zhu Gongshan: Photovoltaic Industry Is Showing Three Major Changes (Full Text of 2025 SNEC Speech Attached)

On June 10, at the opening ceremony of the 2025 SNEC PV + International Photovoltaic Two Sessions, the Chairman of the Global Green Energy Council and the Chairman of the Asian Photovoltaic Industry Association, the Executive Chairman of the 2025 SNEC PV + International Photovoltaic Two Sessions. Zhu Gongshan, chairman of Xiexin Group, delivered a keynote speech on "Dancing with Light to Unlock the Future" .

," "What the photovoltaic industry is experiencing is not a cyclical iteration of the past three or five years, but a preview before the advent of the era of great changes in the photovoltaic industry.". At the same time, the "photovoltaic evolution theory" presents three major changes synchronously:

First, the industrial evolution curve changes. It has evolved from a linear growth in the past cycle and a wave-like fluctuation in three or five years to a spiral rise with an uncertain periodic law.

Second, the logic of market development is rewritten. In the past, it was a new model of optimizing the development of the traction industry, which was based on the policy, giving priority to consumption and guaranteeing price and quantity, but now it is a new model of optimizing the development of the traction industry with full marketization, full electricity market entry, floating income and "market rate of return".

Third, the extension of industrial boundary attributes. Photovoltaic has evolved from a simple power supply role to a hub connecting energy production, storage and consumption, from a "single generation grid-connected model" to a "multiple supply of grid-connected and off-grid power" model, and the market no longer takes grid-connected capacity as the sole criterion.

The original text is as follows:

2025 SNEC PV + International Photovoltaic Opening Ceremony Keynote Speech

Dancing with Light to Unlock the Future

Chairman of the Global Green Energy Council, Zhu Gongshan

(June 10)

, Chairman

of Asian Photovoltaic Industry Association 2025 SNEC PV + Executive Chairman of

International Photovoltaic Two Sessions, Chairman of

Xiexin Group, marked the annual SNEC Conference. In the past year, the photovoltaic industry has been systematically reshaped in severe pain, with "big change" and "big shuffle" coexisting, elimination and regeneration coexisting, deep differentiation and dynamic integration taking place at the same time. China's photovoltaic industry, as the core variable of the great changes in the industry, is facing the dilemma of full chain pressure, supply and demand deflection, trade barriers and other stages, driving the industrial revolution by technological intergenerational change, promoting competition by bottom integration, promoting capacity clearance by industry self-discipline, and is moving from scale expansion to value upgrading, from single market dependence. Synchronously realize the historic transformation of the role of development.

2024, The newly installed PV capacity in the world exceeded 600 GW, representing a year-on-year increase of more than 30%, and the total installed PV capacity in operation exceeded 2. In 2024, China's newly installed PV capacity was 278 GW, with a total installed capacity of 887 GW, and its position as the second largest power source continued to be consolidated. The total installed capacity of new energy storage projects driven by "photovoltaic storage peer" has reached 73. The market pattern of global photovoltaic industry with unipolar dominance and multipolar resonance is being established: China's photovoltaic industry has contributed more than 85% of the global full-chain products and solutions with a GDP share of about 1%; The European PV market, represented by Germany and Spain, has shown remarkable resilience; the United States has been the first choice for new power generation for many years; India, Pakistan and other major Asia-Pacific markets have deepened; Saudi Arabia, Turkey and other Middle East regions have become new growth poles; and Africa, Latin America and other emerging markets have risen in a gradient manner. The incremental demand of traditional market and the potential of emerging market will push the total installed capacity of photovoltaic in the world to reach 5200-5800 GW by 2030. Among them, the total installed capacity of the four major photovoltaic markets in China, Europe, the United States and India can reach 3300-3800 GW, and the total installed capacity of photovoltaic in China may reach 1800-2300 GW.

Last year, I said here that "what the photovoltaic industry is experiencing is not a cyclical iteration of the past three or five years, but a preview before the advent of the era of great changes in the photovoltaic industry". In 2000, Germany promulgated the Renewable Energy Law, which for the first time constructed a positive cycle mechanism of "policy-market-technology" for the photovoltaic industry. Over the past 25 years, the photovoltaic industry has experienced many rounds of adjustment, such as policy-driven, capacity expansion, overheated investment, clearing integration, technology-led, system balance, and so on. In essence, it has completed the adult ceremony under the baptism of several cycles. The former "supplementary energy" has grown into a green low-carbon force, and the "golden youth" who used to rely on policy support has become a "sunshine youth" running on the carbon-neutral track. "Photovoltaic evolution theory" presents three major changes synchronously:

increases linearly from the previous cycle and fluctuates in waves every three to five years." It has evolved into a spiral with an uncertain periodic law.

In this context, we need to be soberly aware that a series of major changes taking place in the photovoltaic industry are essentially the result of the resonance of the triple variables of technology, market and policy: technology iteration accelerates the elimination of backward production capacity, market mechanism reconstructs the income model, and cross-border integration expands the value boundary. Promote the transformation of photovoltaic from "energy revolution participant" to "zero carbon system architect". Instead of looking forward to the cyclical recovery of photovoltaic, it is better to face the subversive reconstruction of the industry.

the entry threshold and value dimension-photovoltaic is no longer a capital game that any player can compete for, but a professional competition that relies on feelings, dedication, innovation, power generation and reasonable profit. High-end production capacity is not excessive at any time, to capacity, inventory clearance, to a certain extent, in exchange for curbing speculative "bubble" and "bad currency clearance". Low-level redundant construction has come to a temporary end. Endure short pain, for Changan. From quantitative change to qualitative change, photovoltaic is breeding a new ecology.

around the world, At present, photovoltaic is still one of the most prominent energy forms with technical and economic advantages. The energy transmitted by the sun to the earth every second is equivalent to about 5 million tons of coal. More than 150 countries around the world have proposed carbon neutral or zero emission targets. The essence of the carbon neutral process is the energy revolution. A series of natural advantages, such as technology, cost and environmental benefits, make photovoltaic the best carrier of the energy revolution. Photovoltaic power energy payback period is only 1. Photovoltaic storage parity or even LCOE is lower than thermal power threshold, driving the market to sink, photovoltaic storage parallel, independent networking. In the next five years, the global demand for energy transformation, and about 7. From the trend point of view, it took 68 years for the global photovoltaic installed capacity to reach 1 terawatt, the second terawatt took only two years, and it is expected that there will be 3 terawatts in the future. Even if we fully consider the fluctuation of policy and financing environment, trade barriers and other factors, the linear growth and even exponential outbreak of photovoltaic is still a big probability event. The

identified technological singularity determines that the photovoltaic industry will systematically unlock the low-carbon future. It has been four or five years since the photovoltaic power generation side parity to the user side parity. With the introduction of relevant policies as the watershed, the photovoltaic power generation has now entered the era of hard parity with full marketization. The arrival of technological singularity has led photovoltaic to leap directly into the era of new quality productivity with low price and low carbon resonance. The breakthrough in mass production of perovskite batteries is a landmark event in the advent of the singularity of photovoltaic technology. The combination of gold technologies such as FBR granular silicon + BC + perovskite outlines a new picture of "only green" photovoltaic in the next decade.

year." With the continuous strengthening of relevant policy constraints and market incentives, it is necessary for the photovoltaic industry to be guided by the ESG concept, with low carbon at the source, carbon reduction in the process, carbon control at the end, and recycling and reuse. In the iteration of photovoltaic technology, carbon value is the key indicator, which drives the value migration of the industrial chain, the rational calibration of the market, and the redistribution of manufacturing profits. With the rapid expansion of the scope of carbon footprint rules, backward technology and production capacity that can not meet the requirements of carbon value will be ruthlessly eliminated by the market. In 2024, the premium income of China's green electricity transaction will be

Determined application expansion determines that the photovoltaic industry scenario is unbounded and has unlimited prospects. In terms of large-scale application, Shagehuang Base + integration of source, network, load and storage + coupling of new energy and high-energy industrial chain has become the mainstream. In 2030, the total installed capacity of China's "Shagohuang" will exceed 500GW, and the deserts such as Kubuqi, Ulan Buhe, Tengger and Badain Jilin will become the home of super-large ecological photoelectricity. In 2025, the total investment in China's power grid is expected to exceed 800 billion yuan. During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, UHV channels will be put into operation intensively, distribution networks will continue to upgrade, trans-regional transmission capacity will be greatly improved, the national power grid will be mutually beneficial, green power will flow freely, and thousands of industries will be empowered. In terms of ubiquitous applications, photovoltaic cross-border applications can contribute more than 50% of the industry's profits. As far as China is concerned, by 2030, the installed capacity of PV in the transportation sector will exceed 50GW, the cumulative installed capacity of BIPV in the construction sector will be about 150GW, the installed capacity of industrial PV will exceed 200GW, and the high-energy industries such as steel, chemical industry and data center will drive about 60% of the demand for industrial PV. It is particularly worth mentioning that the cross-border supply of "non-grid-connected photovoltaic power" is expected to account for more than half of photovoltaic power generation. Green electricity, green certificate and carbon market "three cities linkage", green electricity preparation of green hydrogen, green alcohol, green ammonia gradually inclusive. Digital energy technology drives the deep interaction of power electronics and material science, combines photovoltaic with energy storage and virtual power plants, and optimizes the profit model under the three-dimensional trading system of "medium and long-term + spot + ancillary services". In the future, all surfaces that can carry sunlight can become "photoelectric skin".

At present, the surplus of the whole link is still the sword of Damocles hanging over our heads. From surplus clearance to ecological reconstruction to stable development, photovoltaic still has a way to go. Q1 from the second half of this year to next year is the key window period of photovoltaic supply-side reform, which requires our joint efforts to promote the industry into a high-quality development channel. As a veteran of the industry, I would like to take this opportunity to issue three proposals:

First, the government and enterprises should work together to promote clearance. "Market-oriented merger and reorganization + technology elimination mechanism + policy mandatory constraints" to capacity, through "supply-side self-discipline + demand-side stimulation" to inventory. Photovoltaic capacity indicators will be unified into the national planning of the big plate, record verification, capacity monitoring, illegal clearance, full link supervision. In addition to disruptive new technologies, new production capacity should be strictly controlled. Avoid unreasonable local protection behavior and prevent "increasing while clearing". Establish a national adjustment fund for the new energy industry to promote the ecological restoration of the industry. Every time in history, the supply and demand situation and price improvement of polysilicon have led to the prosperity of the whole industry chain without exception. Starting from the material side, the integration and clearance of ineffective capacity and excess capacity can restore the price of silicon materials and components to a reasonable range, drive the annual output value and profit of the whole industry chain back to normal level, and increase export revenue significantly year on year.

introduces PV green value classification systems such as" dark green "and" light green ". Eliminate the price of tractors and Rolls-Royce on the same stage, so that new technologies, new products and new paradigms with high-tech, high-efficiency and high-quality characteristics, especially in terms of carbon value, play a leading role. The introduction of differentiated green financing, carbon finance, IPO and export tax rebate treatment and other green grading support policies. The full-cycle carbon value is included in the precondition of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation, breaking the production function combination of high energy consumption, and getting rid of the inherent impression of "first energy consumption, then energy saving".Expanding the consumption scenario and proportion of green certificates, improving the carbon footprint accounting system and database construction, ESG rating mechanism, promoting international convergence, mutual recognition and mutual trust, and making China's photovoltaic low-carbon technology standards an important part of global green trade rules.

to create a cross-industry technology and standards integration." Break through barriers for cross-border photovoltaic applications. Change the value distortion situation that photovoltaic manufacturing attributes are greater than technology attributes, and form a closed-loop development of "R & D investment-technology premium-profit feedback", so that China's photovoltaic industry can change from a simple capacity output to a combination of "technology standard output + localized capacity". For photovoltaic enterprises that break through the "bottleneck" technology, we should open the green channel for the selection of relevant national honors, and encourage and support photovoltaic scientists to become the top of the times.

is now in a crucial period of radical reform of the industry." At the same time, we should also guard against the vicious dumping of cross-border capital and establish a fair competitive industrial defense line. It is also hoped that our media organizations will continue to keep the overall situation in mind, guide all walks of life to take a higher position, correctly view the industrial transformation under the background of the construction of the new power system, talk more about the way out and less about the problems. The problems are still the old ones. What we need most is to find a way out through the problems, strengthen confidence, see the future and open up the future. To achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, China needs to add an average of 500-700 GW of photovoltaic installed capacity every year, and the theoretical growth space of global photovoltaic in the future is far beyond imagination. This golden track of dancing with light is waiting for you and me to work hand in hand and do our best to unlock the future.

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