[原创]贵州水泥市场的“前生、今世和未来”

2013-10-15 10:21:13

“十一五”期间,贵州省在西部大开发政策的大力支持下,加大固定资产投资,尤其是基础设施建设方面投资,区域内的水泥消费量快速提升,2008年以后水泥产量增速远高于全国水平,引致当地水泥行业膨胀式发展,产能过剩的隐忧已突显。伴随2012年国务院2号文又快又好建设贵州,由此产生的未来水泥需求可期。本文深入解析了贵州水泥行业的发展历史及现状,根据GDP和全社会固定资产投资增长目标测算未来的水泥需求预期。在不断演变的市场竞争格局下,详尽解读重点地区市场和主导企业的规划布局。

  “十一五”期间,贵州省在西部大开发政策的大力支持下,加大固定资产投资,尤其是基础设施建设方面投资,以完善经济发展基础,取得了显著成就,同时也显示出未来巨大的发展空间。随着基础设施和房地产建设的快速发展,自2008年以后,省内水泥消费需求快速增长,致使区域内的水泥行业膨胀式发展,出现了严重的产能过剩,行业盈利水平急剧下滑,水泥市场竞争格局不断演变。2012年,随着国务院《进一步促进贵州经济社会又好又快发展的若干意见》的出台,大力实施工业强省和城镇化带动战略,着力加强交通、水利设施建设和生态建设,全面提升又好又快发展的基础条件,由此产生的未来水泥需求可期。

一、近年来水泥需求有扩大,但过剩隐忧已突显

  尽管在“十一五”之前贵州早已纳入国家的西部大开发战略之中,但其经济发展效果并未明显发挥,直至2008年经济危机爆发国家刺激经济增长的4万亿投资有如助燃剂,终使贵州的GDP增速在全国增速进入下行通道的环境下逆势快速提升,2009、2010年的GDP增速均高出全国平均值2.2、2.4个百分点,而2011和2012年差距进一步扩大至5.7、5.9个百分点。这说明贵州省在“十一五”期间牢牢把握国家加快推进西部大开发的历史机遇,加快区域发展建设,提升地方经济实力,显示出了巨大的发展潜力。

  图1:自2008年起贵州经济增长速度明显加快,发展潜力

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

  贵州在经济获得快速增长的背后,是当地政府加大了固定资产投资力度,特别是近三年来的年均投资增速高达33%,高出全国平均水平10个百分点。2012年在全国固定资产投资增速有所减缓的情况下,贵州的增速仍高达31.8%。其中,在全国房地产市场在一系列限购、限贷等严厉政策的调控下,房地产投资增速快速回落,而贵州区域房地产市场却呈现一片火热景象,2012年的房地产投资增速创新高达68%;省内基础设施建设投资在2009年以后上升到一个新的台阶,年投资增速基本保持在30%以上,较此前20%的增速大幅度提升,突出加快基础设施建设是整个区域获得快速发展的重要基础。

图2:近三年贵州省加大固定资产投资力度,投资增速远高于全国水平

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

图3:2010-2012年贵州房地产与基础设施投资增速逆势上涨 


数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

  近几年贵州的经济快速增长,但其人均GDP却仍远低于全国平均水平,2012年人均GDP仅为1.97万元,远低于全国人均3.84万元的水平,发展迟缓的经济显示尚有巨大的提升空间。2008年以后,随着省公路、铁路、水利等基础设施重点工程、房地产建设以及农村危房改造建设力度的加大,区域内的水泥需求明显增加,当地水泥企业获得了蓬勃发展的时机,水泥市场竞争格局不断发生演变。

  2009至2012年间,贵州水泥产量在下游需求的强力拉动下迅猛增长,年均增速高达36.66%,此前水泥产量增速均保持在20%以下,2011年水泥产量增速达到50.11%的高峰,即使在最不景气的2012年也保持着28.79%的高增长,高出全国水平23个百分点。近年来各大水泥企业集团发现贵州水泥市场需求潜力巨大,纷纷踊跃进入贵州投资建线布局,导致区域产能呈现爆发式的增长,使得整个贵州水泥产能出现严重过剩。

图4:2009-2012年贵州水泥产量迅猛增长

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

  对贵州水泥市场而言,自2006年以来,国家加大对西部地区的投资使得贵州成为水泥投资的热点地区之一。在2006至2009年的四年间,贵州水泥制造工业固定资产投资增速呈现高速增长,在2007和2008年的投资增速达到高峰,分别高达124.3%、149.7%,远高出同期全国平均的32.98%、60.76%。随后面对全国水泥产能严重过程的局面,国家出台38号和892号文件以严控新增产能,贵州地区的水泥固定资产投资增速也出现快速回落,但依然高于全国水平。

图5:2006-2010年贵州水泥工业固定资产投资增速呈爆发式增长

数据来源:中国水泥协会,中国水泥研究院

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Correlation

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Facing the future, Haokai Filter Industry will continue to uphold the spirit of innovation and constantly improve the technical content and market competitiveness of its products. The company will continue to pay attention to industry trends, keep up with changes in environmental protection policies, and provide customers with more high-quality, efficient and environmentally friendly dust removal solutions. Through continuous technological innovation and high-quality services, Haokai Filter Industry will help the cement industry to achieve green transformation, promote high-quality development of the industry, and jointly meet a better future.