[原创]贵州水泥市场的“前生、今世和未来”

2013-10-15 10:21:13

“十一五”期间,贵州省在西部大开发政策的大力支持下,加大固定资产投资,尤其是基础设施建设方面投资,区域内的水泥消费量快速提升,2008年以后水泥产量增速远高于全国水平,引致当地水泥行业膨胀式发展,产能过剩的隐忧已突显。伴随2012年国务院2号文又快又好建设贵州,由此产生的未来水泥需求可期。本文深入解析了贵州水泥行业的发展历史及现状,根据GDP和全社会固定资产投资增长目标测算未来的水泥需求预期。在不断演变的市场竞争格局下,详尽解读重点地区市场和主导企业的规划布局。

  “十一五”期间,贵州省在西部大开发政策的大力支持下,加大固定资产投资,尤其是基础设施建设方面投资,以完善经济发展基础,取得了显著成就,同时也显示出未来巨大的发展空间。随着基础设施和房地产建设的快速发展,自2008年以后,省内水泥消费需求快速增长,致使区域内的水泥行业膨胀式发展,出现了严重的产能过剩,行业盈利水平急剧下滑,水泥市场竞争格局不断演变。2012年,随着国务院《进一步促进贵州经济社会又好又快发展的若干意见》的出台,大力实施工业强省和城镇化带动战略,着力加强交通、水利设施建设和生态建设,全面提升又好又快发展的基础条件,由此产生的未来水泥需求可期。

一、近年来水泥需求有扩大,但过剩隐忧已突显

  尽管在“十一五”之前贵州早已纳入国家的西部大开发战略之中,但其经济发展效果并未明显发挥,直至2008年经济危机爆发国家刺激经济增长的4万亿投资有如助燃剂,终使贵州的GDP增速在全国增速进入下行通道的环境下逆势快速提升,2009、2010年的GDP增速均高出全国平均值2.2、2.4个百分点,而2011和2012年差距进一步扩大至5.7、5.9个百分点。这说明贵州省在“十一五”期间牢牢把握国家加快推进西部大开发的历史机遇,加快区域发展建设,提升地方经济实力,显示出了巨大的发展潜力。

  图1:自2008年起贵州经济增长速度明显加快,发展潜力

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

  贵州在经济获得快速增长的背后,是当地政府加大了固定资产投资力度,特别是近三年来的年均投资增速高达33%,高出全国平均水平10个百分点。2012年在全国固定资产投资增速有所减缓的情况下,贵州的增速仍高达31.8%。其中,在全国房地产市场在一系列限购、限贷等严厉政策的调控下,房地产投资增速快速回落,而贵州区域房地产市场却呈现一片火热景象,2012年的房地产投资增速创新高达68%;省内基础设施建设投资在2009年以后上升到一个新的台阶,年投资增速基本保持在30%以上,较此前20%的增速大幅度提升,突出加快基础设施建设是整个区域获得快速发展的重要基础。

图2:近三年贵州省加大固定资产投资力度,投资增速远高于全国水平

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

图3:2010-2012年贵州房地产与基础设施投资增速逆势上涨 


数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

  近几年贵州的经济快速增长,但其人均GDP却仍远低于全国平均水平,2012年人均GDP仅为1.97万元,远低于全国人均3.84万元的水平,发展迟缓的经济显示尚有巨大的提升空间。2008年以后,随着省公路、铁路、水利等基础设施重点工程、房地产建设以及农村危房改造建设力度的加大,区域内的水泥需求明显增加,当地水泥企业获得了蓬勃发展的时机,水泥市场竞争格局不断发生演变。

  2009至2012年间,贵州水泥产量在下游需求的强力拉动下迅猛增长,年均增速高达36.66%,此前水泥产量增速均保持在20%以下,2011年水泥产量增速达到50.11%的高峰,即使在最不景气的2012年也保持着28.79%的高增长,高出全国水平23个百分点。近年来各大水泥企业集团发现贵州水泥市场需求潜力巨大,纷纷踊跃进入贵州投资建线布局,导致区域产能呈现爆发式的增长,使得整个贵州水泥产能出现严重过剩。

图4:2009-2012年贵州水泥产量迅猛增长

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

  对贵州水泥市场而言,自2006年以来,国家加大对西部地区的投资使得贵州成为水泥投资的热点地区之一。在2006至2009年的四年间,贵州水泥制造工业固定资产投资增速呈现高速增长,在2007和2008年的投资增速达到高峰,分别高达124.3%、149.7%,远高出同期全国平均的32.98%、60.76%。随后面对全国水泥产能严重过程的局面,国家出台38号和892号文件以严控新增产能,贵州地区的水泥固定资产投资增速也出现快速回落,但依然高于全国水平。

图5:2006-2010年贵州水泥工业固定资产投资增速呈爆发式增长

数据来源:中国水泥协会,中国水泥研究院

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