In October, the volume of market pull fell, and India showed a small increase against the trend, not only breaking through 2GW in September, but also slightly increasing by 8.6% month-on-month, and almost equaling the total amount of pull in the first half of this year. According
to InfoLink customs data, China exported 16.5G W photovoltaic modules in October, down 16.7% from 19.8 GW in September and up 39.8% from the same period last year. From January to October 2023, the cumulative export volume reached 174.1GW, which increased by 30.6% compared with 133.3GW in the same period last year, and exceeded 154.8GW in the whole year of last year . In
the European market
, China exported 6.2G W photovoltaic modules to the European market in October, down 18% from 7.6G W in September and 10% from the same period last year. From January to October, Europe imported 91.6GW PV modules, an increase of 22.6% compared with the same period last year. Photovoltaic modules imported from
Europe to China have been decreasing month by month since a slight rebound in August. Although the fourth quarter is the traditional off-season, it is still mainly affected by the inventory accumulation caused by a large number of goods pulled in the first half of the year, which affects the strength of goods pulled in the second half of the year. It is estimated that the overall demand in the second half of this year will be significantly smaller than that in the first half of the year. European module spot prices in mid-
November fell between 0.11 and 0.15 euros per watt, almost flat with October module prices, indicating a slowdown in price declines and a gradual easing of module inventory problems. As it is the construction period before winter in Europe, the demand in the near future has not shown an avalanche decline. Considering that Europe is now in the transition stage of technology selection, and manufacturers continue to try to solve the problem of component inventory and some continue to re-export to other countries for consumption, the analysis is optimistic that the fourth quarter will have the opportunity to maintain a certain degree of pulling volume. However, as Europe is about to enter the winter holidays, In November and December, the volume of single-month pull will begin to end as in the past, and the export volume will decline normally.
The Asia-Pacific market
imported about 5.9 GW photovoltaic modules from China in October, a significant decrease from 7 GW in September, with a month-on-month decrease of about 16%. From January to October this year, it imported 39.3GW photovoltaic modules from China, an increase of nearly 43% compared with the same period last year, and has exceeded 31.5 GW in the whole year of last year.
India is the only major Asia-Pacific country with an increase in pulling goods this month. In October, India's imports of photovoltaic modules from China reached 2.2G W, which not only broke through 2G W in September, but also increased slightly by 8.6% month-on-month, and was almost the same as the total pulling goods in the first half of this year. Due to the rapid increase of large-scale tenders and ground-based projects in India, the demand for components has risen significantly in the near future, coupled with the implementation of the ALMM list and the approaching grace period for some projects, it is analyzed that Indian developers plan to acquire a large number of Chinese components at relatively low prices in the near future for use in next year's case. It is expected that the momentum of pulling goods will continue from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year, and the overall pulling of goods in the fourth quarter is expected to surpass the third quarter.
The American market
imported 2.4G W Chinese PV modules from China in October, down 12% month-on-month compared with 2.7 GW in September, and up 10% year-on-year. From January to October, China imported 24.4 GW PV modules, an increase of about 13.5% compared with the same period last year. The main reason for the slight month-on-month decline in
October came from Brazil, where the import volume of Chinese PV modules in October was 1.8GW, with a slight month-on-month decline of 7.2%, but the total volume was still considerable, accounting for 75% of the overall American market. Even though the new regulations will affect the distributed demand, the decline in component prices will still stimulate centralized projects, and the strength of pulling goods will increase again in the second half of the year. Recently, the issue of canceling tariff relief for imported components has also attracted attention in the local market, and it is speculated that some of the pulling goods are preparatory shipments for manufacturers to avoid risks.
Middle East and Africa
In October, the Middle East market imported about 1.5g W photovoltaic modules from China, down 20% month-on-month, up 200% year-on-year. From January to October, the cumulative import of 11.8GW PV modules from China increased by about 68.6% compared with the same period last year, which has exceeded the volume of 8.4GW in the whole year of last year.
This month, Saudi Arabia is still the main country affecting the Middle East market. In October, China exported about 0.9 GW photovoltaic modules to Saudi Arabia, accounting for about 62% of the Middle East market demand this month, but compared with 1.2G W in September, the month-on-month ratio decreased by 25%. Saudi Arabia has successively promoted a number of large-scale centralized project tenders this year, resulting in a cumulative import volume of 6.1GW this year, which is about five times higher than last year's annual import volume, and has become one of the fastest growing photovoltaic emerging markets this year. In addition, Saudi Power Purchasing Company (SPPC) has recently launched a tender for 3.7 GW installed capacity, optimistically anticipating the long-term photovoltaic demand and market development in Saudi Arabia.
The African market imported about 449 MW PV modules in October, with a month-on-month decrease of about 22.9% and a significant year-on-year increase of 159%. From January to October, the cumulative import of about 7 GW PV modules from China almost doubled compared with the 3.4G W pull in the whole year of last year. The main reason for this month's decline came from Egypt, which imported 120 MW photovoltaic modules from China in October, surpassing 97 MW from South Africa and becoming the largest demand country in Africa in October.
However, looking at the cumulative imports of Chinese photovoltaic modules from Africa from January to October this year, South Africa is still the largest photovoltaic market in Africa. At present, the cumulative pull of goods from January to October has reached 3.9 GW, which is at least three times more than 1.2 GW pulled in the whole year of last year. It shows that the stimulus policies and reform measures offered by the South African government in the first half of this year helped to boost short-term demand, but in the second half of this year, demand began to decline month by month, reflecting that problems such as inadequate infrastructure and slow green energy procurement process in South Africa still need to be improved.
Looking forward to the fourth quarter, as the overall market heat in the second half of the year is not as good as expected, most countries are gradually closing down, and the European market still has a certain inventory and enters the traditional off-season, it is expected that the momentum of oversea s pulling goods will fall normally in the fourth quarter. Among them, 11 and 12 months should only maintain the momentum of October or show a slight decline, the overall volume of the second half of the year is difficult to match the level of the first half of the year. In the first quarter of
next year, considering that the Spring Festival holidays of China's lunar calendar in the photovoltaic market are approaching, the demand for components can not play a supporting role, while Europe and the United States are still in the traditional off-season, and there are still some stocks that can not be fully digested, only India and Japan are expected to maintain a certain degree of pulling goods affected by the annual nodes. Considering the supply side, the local production capacity in the United States and India may start production in early next year. It is expected that the first quarter of next year will be difficult to repeat the tide of pulling goods in the first quarter of this year. Overall, we are cautiously pessimistic about the demand in the first quarter of next year.
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