全线下跌!上半年各省市水泥产量出炉!反弹还有多远?

2022-07-22 09:31:51

接下来各地基础设施建设一定会呈现较为强劲的复苏态势,由此也将对水泥行业的恢复起到推动作用,水泥需求下半年将快速回暖。

据国家统计局公布的数据显示,国内6月水泥产量为1.96亿吨,同比减少12.9%。1-6月累计水泥产量为9.77亿吨,同比下降15%。

从分省数据来看,2022年上半年9个省市水泥产量同比降幅超20%。其中吉林降45.68%,上海降44.25%、黑龙江降32.65%、贵州降31.91%,北京降30.92%、辽宁降26.19%、云南降24.75%、广西降22.72%,广东降22.06%。

具体情况如下:

需求不佳 上半年水泥企业量价齐跌

今年上半年,水泥需求出现较大下降,量价齐跌,旺季不旺,部分区域水泥价格跌至成本线。

全国水泥价格周K线图

业内人士表示,目前水泥价格处于低位主要是由于行业进入淡季,下游需求减少,厂商库存处于较高水平。

而将时间线拉长来看,今年上半年以来,水泥行业延续了2021年下半年以来的需求疲弱态势,加之2021年下半年以来,上游原材料煤的价格持续走高,成本压力高企导致水泥行业毛利承压。

数据显示,2021年第三季度至2022年第二季度,动力煤均价同比涨幅分别为102%、97%、62%、39%,分别上涨585元/吨、634元/吨、456元/吨、339元/吨,煤炭价格上涨100元/吨则对应水泥成本每吨上涨10元。

水泥供给方面,需求明显下行背景下,库存去化压力增大,传统的4月份至5月份去库周期在今年转而成为累库周期。

“截至6月初,全国、华东平均水泥库容比均高于7成,处于历史高位,需求不振叠加库存高位双重压力,导致水泥价格明显松动,且降价较往年明显提前,受疫情影响较大的长三角地区在多轮降价后,当前价格已明显低于过去4年同期。”业内人士说。

华东地区库容比

多方对下半年水泥走势分析

对于下半年水泥价格及需求的走势分析,上述人士认为,预计2022年8月下旬开始,在下游需求尤其是基建需要拉动下水泥价格有望迎来反弹,全年水泥出货量预计将呈前低后高走势。

国海证券研报显示,下半年基建有望发力,同时伴随房地产政策边际改善,水泥市场需求有望回暖。

水泥大数据研究院郑建辉表示,下半年水泥需求将有所好转,预计同比超2%。

其中,基建仍有发力空间,2022下半年水泥需求有保障。

供给端上半年新点火产能不及同期,预计下半年新投低于计划,错峰力度在升级,整体表现积极。预计下半年旺季提前启动,相对看好价格表现。

近日国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部研究员张立群在与中国水泥网交流时表示,他觉得今年是基建全面提速的重要起点,并且从中央的一系列部署来看,基建已不仅仅是扩内需的的措施,更是为第二个百年奠定一个高水平基础的重大战略安排。

所以可以肯定,接下来各地基础设施建设一定会呈现较为强劲的复苏态势,由此也将对水泥行业的恢复起到推动作用,水泥需求下半年将快速回暖。

张立群还表示,水泥行业虽然目前面临着诸多波动,但不能因此失去信心,应该密切关注波动期存在的机遇,抓住后市的发展态势。

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Correlation

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.

2024-11-08 17:41:17

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the overall market demand in Northwest China has declined, some kilns have been shut down, and most prices are stable. For example, the cement market demand in Gansu is weak at present, especially in Lanzhou and its surrounding areas, the inventory of some manufacturers is not high.

2024-11-08 17:27:44

Asia Cement said in the third quarter report that looking forward to the fourth quarter, the demand for cement will pick up to a certain extent. With the support of increasing peak staggering efforts, the contradiction between supply and demand of cement will be alleviated in stages. It is expected that the results of the increase in cement prices in the third quarter will be maintained until the end of the year, and the benefits of cement enterprises are expected to usher in marginal improvement.

2024-11-06 10:05:59

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places in Yunnan in southwest China has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Liangshan and Panzhihua in Sichuan have also begun to push up by 50 yuan/ton. In Guizhou, some major manufacturers in Qiannan, Qianxinan, Zunyi, Tongren and other regions have recently raised the cement price by 10-40 yuan/ton, while the quotation in other regions has been stable for the time being.

2024-11-01 17:32:29

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

Since October, the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market has been relatively stable and has not risen yet. At present, the 4600t/d production line of the local cement industry has been ignited recently, which is expected to have a certain impact on the eastern Guangdong market in the short term. However, the increase in the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta and Fujian can lay a certain foundation for the increase in the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market.

2024-10-29 09:40:30

Under the current supply and demand situation of the industry, strict implementation of off-peak production is still the key to maintain the stable development of the industry. According to its introduction, the number of off-peak production days in Chongqing this year may reach nearly 200 days, about 20 days more than last year. However, from the implementation of this year, two key problems need to be solved to promote off-peak production. 1、 Some small enterprises are not enthusiastic about participating. According to its introduction, large enterprises and some small enterprises in the region can strictly implement the peak-staggering production plan, but some small-scale cement enterprises, especially single-line enterprises, have poor enthusiasm for the implementation of peak-staggering production, which makes it difficult to implement the regional peak-staggering production as a whole.

2024-10-15 14:42:58

After the National Day, the domestic concrete market demand rebounded slightly, but the total amount is still relatively weak, concrete enterprises are mainly shipping at stable prices, and have not yet followed the rise of raw materials. From October 3 to October 9, the national concrete price index closed at 112.82 points, in line with the National Day holiday, with a year-on-year decline of 10.21%.

2024-10-12 17:25:54

The price of raw materials in East China has been pushed up, and the implementation is relatively positive. This week, the price of concrete is mainly stable..

2024-10-12 15:03:04

In September, real estate investment continued to decline, infrastructure funds in place were insufficient, and some areas were greatly affected by typhoons and heavy rainfall, terminal demand was still relatively low, Jinjiu market expectations failed, but at the end of the month, affected by peak staggering and production reduction, the Yangtze River Delta region sharply pushed up cement and clinker prices, and the national cement prices rose. In October, on the supply side, it is expected that the supply side will be relatively stable, the terminal demand will continue to improve, and the overall cement price in October will show a strong trend of volatility.

2024-10-11 15:31:54

Recently, the local weather conditions in China are not good, the recovery of market demand is insufficient, the price of concrete is mainly stable, and the local pressure is falling. From September 12 to September 18, the national concrete price index closed at 112.93 points, down 0.21% annually and 10.83% year-on-year.

2024-09-20 17:55:34

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: The commercial mixed market in Northwest China is running steadily.

2024-09-20 16:41:28

Tianfeng Securities Research Report shows that with the arrival of the peak season in September, the progress of special bonds and special bonds at the infrastructure end has been accelerated and major local projects have been started, and the demand for cement is expected to pick up. Recently, the cement shipment data continued to recover, and the price side also rose synchronously. At present, most cement enterprises are still in a state of loss. With the strengthening of industry supply self-discipline, the superimposed demand is expected to improve marginally, and the industry profit center is expected to be lifted.

2024-09-19 10:18:37

As a "veteran" of the industry, Li Wenxiu has personally experienced the ups and downs of the cement industry for decades. Faced with the current difficulties, Li Wenxiu believes that solidifying the market and share is the key to stabilizing the development trend of the industry, steadily promoting capacity removal and realizing the "soft landing" of the industry under the background of a sharp decline in demand. "The more the economic downturn, the more stable employment, stable income, capacity is inevitable, but how to go to capacity is the way we can choose, the current solidification of the market, solidification of share, to maintain the basic efficiency of the industry is very critical.".

2024-09-18 11:20:28

In September, on the supply side, the current storage level is relatively high, enterprises in many places continue to carry out self-discipline self-help activities, continue to carry out off-peak shutdown, and it is expected that the pressure on the supply side is relatively small; on the demand side, the high temperature weather gradually exits, coupled with the acceleration of the issuance of special bond funds, downstream construction activities will be strengthened, and it is expected that the terminal demand will usher in a turning point; in summary, the supply-demand relationship may improve in September. In addition, after two months of decline in cement prices in July-August, the market has a strong willingness to raise prices, and it is expected that cement prices will show a strong trend of volatility in September.

2024-09-10 13:14:43

However, in the semi-annual reports issued by major cement listed companies, despite the sharp decline in profits of the cement sector, the development of the aggregate sector is still steady. China Cement Network data show that in the first half of 2024, the demand for aggregate for concrete fell 10.8% year-on-year, with a total demand of 6.25 billion tons, dragged down by both downstream infrastructure and real estate. Therefore, how long the aggregate can support cement enterprises is indeed a pessimistic unknown.

2024-09-04 09:39:36

Relevant data show that the industry lost about 1.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with sales falling by 11%. Conch Cement: In the first half of the year, the Company achieved an operating income of RMB45.566 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 30.44%, and a net profit of RMB3.326 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 48.56%. Tapai Group: achieved operating income of RMB1.976 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31.17%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB226 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 53.43%. It is expected that with the arrival of the traditional peak season of cement sales, the demand side will be better in the second half of the year than in the first half, and the price side is expected to continue to repair.

2024-08-30 10:06:24

Domestic high temperature rain weather has not yet subsided, downstream construction activity is still low, the concrete market is relatively flat, and the market price is stable. From August 15 to August 21, the national concrete price index closed at 114.16 points, down 0.28% annually and 11.40% year-on-year.

2024-08-23 17:35:52

The price of raw materials in many places has fallen, and the price of concrete in southwest China is running weakly.

2024-08-23 15:45:37

Domestic construction conditions have not improved significantly, coupled with the small number of new key projects, the market demand is still relatively low, and the price of concrete has fallen more or risen less. From August 8 to August 14, the national concrete price index closed at 114.48 points, down 0.33% annually and 11.69% year-on-year.

2024-08-17 10:46:53

With the improvement of construction progress in North China, the growth of market demand is still limited by the off-season.

2024-08-16 17:10:08

The domestic market continued to be controlled by the hot and rainy weather, the market demand was weak, the price of concrete continued to fall steadily, and the decline in Sichuan and Chongqing was relatively large. From August 1st to August 7th, the national concrete price index closed at 114.86 points, down 0.43% from the previous month.

2024-08-09 18:09:08

The rainy season in North China affects construction, market demand is low and prices are weak and stable.

2024-08-09 16:25:44

Since the beginning of this year, enterprises around the country have generally increased their efforts to stagger the peak, but it is still not enough to reverse the imbalance between supply and demand. In the future, the cement industry may face a severe test.

2024-08-05 13:48:41

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the shutdown of kilns in Liaoning, Northeast China, was extended to 20 days in August, the overall price was high and stable, the demand performance was not good, and the momentum to push up again was insufficient.

2024-08-02 17:28:08

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the demand and sales in southwest China are sluggish, cement prices in Sichuan and Chongqing continue to fall, and some regions have fallen back to the level before the price increase in June. Some markets in the surrounding Yunnan-Guizhou region are still pushing up in the week, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-08-02 17:25:15

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong in central and southern China has recovered by 10-15 yuan/ton, and the quotation in Guangxi is temporarily stable. Prices in some areas of the two lakes have fallen in the early stage, and the overall market is mainly stable this week.

2024-08-02 17:16:26

According to the market data of China Cement Network, affected by the high temperature weather and rainy season, the demand performance of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is flat and the price is weak.

2024-08-02 17:12:52

According to the cement network market data center news, Ningxia prices continue to decline; Shaanxi region recently due to the contradiction between supply and demand and price competition led to a larger price reduction.

2024-08-02 16:39:35

According to the data center of China Cement Market, due to the low ex-factory prices in various regions, some regions began to resume pricing this week.

2024-08-02 16:30:32

Looking forward to the second half of 2024, we believe that the demand for cement will improve compared with the first half of the year, and the price will continue to rebound. However, under the constraints of weak demand and serious overcapacity, the repair of cement price is limited. Throughout the year, cement demand will face

2024-08-01 09:19:52

Demand is declining, supply is increasing, and the price of sand and gravel industry is adjusted in an all-round way.

2024-07-31 15:56:20

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the Northeast region shut down the kiln again for 15 days in August, which played a supporting role in cement prices.

2024-07-26 17:06:09

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the intensity of peak staggering has been increased, and the price of cement in Yunnan-Guizhou region has been raised by 30-100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed. Cement prices in some markets in Sichuan and Chongqing have dropped by 30-50 yuan/ton.

2024-07-26 16:56:03

From the perspective of various factors, the cement industry was flat in the first half of the year, and in the second half of the year, under the stimulation of the steady growth policy, the physical workload of the project landing was expected to increase.

2024-07-25 10:00:09

Some regions in China are affected by high temperature and rain weather, coupled with insufficient new projects, the price of concrete is weakening. From July 11th to July 17th, the national concrete price index closed at 116.73 points, down 0.47% from the previous month.

2024-07-19 17:35:12

The market demand is not good, and the price of concrete is stable and falling.

2024-07-19 14:44:42

According to the research and statistics of the People's Bank of China, according to the issuance plans announced by various places, the issuance scale of new local bonds in the third quarter was as high as 1966.9 billion yuan, an increase of 605.3 billion yuan over the same period last year; plus the maturity scale of 1067.6 billion yuan of local bonds, it is expected that in the third quarter

2024-07-10 14:08:28

Tapai Group issued a performance forecast for the first half of 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company during the reporting period was RMB218,586,600 to RMB242,874,000, representing a decrease of 55% to 50% as compared with the same period of last year.

2024-07-09 09:30:18

According to the data center of China Cement Network, the cost of cement production has risen, and the price of cement in Dali and Lijiang areas of Yunnan has risen again by 30 yuan/ton. The market demand in Sichuan and Chongqing is weak, and local cement prices have fallen.

2024-06-28 17:06:31

Following the increase of cement price by 50 yuan/ton at the end of May, leading enterprises in Dali and Lijiang areas of Yunnan continued to notify the increase of cement price by 50 yuan/ton from June 25.

2024-06-26 16:51:15

Cement prices in Gansu and Qinghai were temporarily stable after rising this week, while the actual implementation range in Ningxia was narrowed, according to the cement market data center. The overall performance of Shaanxi market is stable.

2024-06-21 15:30:08

According to the data center of China Cement Network, some areas in central and southern Hebei in North China have once again pushed up the price of cement by 30-50 yuan/ton and the price of clinker by 20 yuan/ton. The overall market demand is insufficient, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-06-14 17:45:01

According to China Cement Network Market Data Center, driven by factors such as kiln shutdown and the implementation of the new national standard, the price of cement in Guangxi Province has risen by 30 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed. The Guangdong market is tepid, and the quotation is temporarily stable. After the market of the two lakes rose, the implementation was not good.

2024-06-07 16:54:49

Traditional investment in infrastructure construction is difficult to support strong demand for cement.

2024-05-30 16:02:02

According to the market data of China Cement Net, the price of cement in Guizhou has bottomed out and rebounded. Around the 20th, enterprises in most parts of the province notified the price of cement to be raised by 20-50 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-05-24 15:36:32