保供持续动力煤价格现回落 “迎峰度冬”市场高位或仍存支撑

2022-10-05 10:17:27

尽管政策端保供稳价力度持续,但年度旺季临近,动力煤走势受到多方看好。

夏季用煤高峰已过,动力煤却在9月中旬走出了淡季不淡的行情。

虽然近日在系列保供稳价政策作用下,叠加下游错峰限产等因素扰动,动力煤需求减弱,价格有所下行,但在四季度用煤高峰临近之际,市场仍对煤市存看多预期

煤价出现高位回调

虽然随着国内多地气温下行,电厂进入用煤淡季,日耗环比显著回落,但在“金九银十”作用下,化工、建材等用煤大户步入行业旺季,叠加海外能源危机发酵,九月份国内动力煤价格出现显著上行。

国家统计局数据显示,9月上旬全国动力煤价格全部上涨,其中山西大混(热值5000大卡)价格1167.5元/吨,同比上涨9.1%;山西优混(热值5500大卡)价格1304.4元/吨,同比上涨9%。

在9月中旬冲上1150元/吨年内高点后,动力煤期货主力合约2301震荡回落,截至9月28日收盘报1000元/吨,仍处于相对高位。

现货市场上,9月28日国内动力煤价格偏强运行。据百川盈孚数据,28日动力煤市场价格为1044元/吨,较上一工作日上涨5元/吨。产地方面,陕西榆林地区供应紧张,终端补库较为积极,销售情况较好,价格小幅上行;内蒙古鄂尔多斯地区安全检查趋严,产量有限,价格偏强运行。

不过神木煤炭交易中心消息显示,受困于高煤价影响产业成本的上升,终端用户开始抵制高煤价,个别煤矿部分煤种开始下调煤价,下调幅度10元/吨-30元/吨不等。降价原因一是由于终端补库节奏放缓,导致煤价上涨势头放缓;二是电厂日耗下降明显,煤炭库存和电煤可用天数显著增加;三是节前部分行业限产,用煤量有所下降;四是临近月底部分采购合同已经完成;五是市场从业者担心政策调控煤炭市场,为规避政策调控带来的风险,出货贸易商数量有所增加。

面对煤价旺季前夕上行的走势,9月15日国家发改委即发布消息称,按照发改委部署要求,天津市,河北省秦皇岛市、唐山市、沧州市,辽宁省锦州市等多地发展改革委对港口煤炭企业开展专项调查,了解相关企业煤炭销售和价格情况,提醒督促其合规经营,严格执行已签订的电煤中长期合同价格,严禁以“阴阳合同”等方式额外加价,将煤炭价格保持在合理区间。相关企业已就严格执行有关政策、在价格合理区间内销售煤炭等作出了承诺。

近日,广西壮族自治区发改委也发布关于落实煤炭市场价格形成机制有关事项的通知公开征求意见的公告,确定区内电煤生产出矿环节中长期合同交易价格合理区间为每吨270—420元(3000千卡,含税),其他热值按其热值比相应折算;电煤现货交易价格上限不得超过中长期合同交易价格上限的50%。

按照近日太原市人民政府办公室发布的关于印发太原市煤炭增产保供和产能新增工作方案的通知,当地以安全生产为基础,全力挖掘煤矿生产潜力,有序推进产能核增,加快煤矿手续办理,多措并举提升煤炭供给保障能力。目标2022年产量达到4800万吨,力争达到4850万吨。2023年产量力争达到5000万吨。严格落实停产报告制度,严禁对发生事故煤矿区域采取“一刀切”式停产措施。2022年推动2座建设煤矿建成试运转,释放煤炭先进产能210万吨/年。

旺季煤价或存支撑

尽管政策端保供稳价力度持续,但年度旺季临近,动力煤走势受到多方看好。

百川盈孚认为,随着北方转冷,采暖用煤需求较好,电力用煤同比依旧偏强;非电需求方面,化工节前备货接近尾声,甲醇耗煤尚可,水泥方面季节性旺季下,华东和华南水泥需求稳步提升。供应端一定程度受安全生产事故及安监趋严影响,陕蒙地区在长协保供下市场煤也依旧偏紧。陕西发改委要求发电企业必须在大会之前将电煤库存提升至20天以上,守牢15天存煤底线,也加剧了榆林地区的市场煤紧张形势。预计煤价调整幅度在10-20元/吨左右。

宝城期货分析,近期国内矿山安全事故引发关注,安检力度有加强趋势,煤炭产量或受到小幅压制;非电行业用煤需求增量明显,黑色、冶金、化工行业煤炭采购需求不断兑现,动力煤供需格局短期内边际改善。全球能源紧张的大背景下,国内动力煤短期基本面较强,加之国庆临近,非电行业煤炭补库需求逐渐释放,多因素支撑市场煤价不断上涨。不过需注意的是,今年保供稳价决心有增无减,10月份前,随着电煤需求进一步回落,煤价上行的阻力或逐渐显现,而进入冬季后,在俄乌冲突影响延续的前提下,煤价上行动能将再次回归。

山西证券研报显示,动力煤受供给因素扰动淡季不淡,四季度国内动力煤将会迎来全年最大旺季,叠加欧盟能源危机也将在冬季持续发酵,冬季动力煤的价格有望再次冲高。冶金煤开工旺季价格回升,存在一定结构性机会。当前煤炭股板块动态估值仍处于历史偏低位置(近5年的5.12百分位),叠加股息率保持在较高水平,板块安全边际高。同时,根据价格走势判断,下半年板块业绩仍将有不低的增速,未来煤炭股仍具备比较大的修复空间。


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Correlation

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According to the data center of China Cement Market, the implementation of the new national standard has increased the cost of cement production. Leading enterprises in most areas have notified to raise the price of cement by 30-50 yuan/ton. Enterprises in Chongqing plan to raise 100-130 yuan/ton on the 8th.

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Leading enterprises in Chengdu plan to raise cement prices by 30-50 yuan/ton on the 30th.

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Can the supply and demand of cement industry improve in 2024? Can prices be boosted? How will enterprises break the situation?

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2023年,受房地产持续调整等影响,水泥行业发展景气度继续下降。一季度下游复工情况尚佳,整体需求好于同期;二、三季度“旺季不旺、淡季更淡”,需求减弱明显,加之市场竞争激烈,水泥价格持续走低;四季度需求弱势恢复,水泥价格小幅上涨。总体来看,2023年水泥产量创下近13年新低,尽管煤价重心有所下移,但水泥价格降幅较深,行业利润大幅萎缩。展望2024年,我们认为地产对水泥需求拖累减弱,水泥产量或将小幅下降,产能过剩压力下水泥价格中枢下移,行业效益难言乐观。

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