浙江:需求下滑 2022年水泥行情不乐观

2022-01-20 15:04:16

“有人欢笑、有人忧愁”可能是对2021年浙江水泥行业的很好概括。

水泥价格过山车般的震荡、能耗双控的冲击、煤炭成本的暴涨、房地产需求下滑,种种因素叠加,让2021年的水泥行业显得更为跌宕起伏。

一直以来,长三角都是水泥市场的风向标,而身处风向标中心的浙江在过去一年又是什么样的状况呢?

“2021年水泥销量同比增加15%左右。”浙江一大型水泥粉磨基地销售负责人指出,受益于亚运会相关工程的需求带动、省内高铁等重大项目的建设,以及企业本身管理得当,智能化水平高,加之水泥价格的高涨,企业2021年实现了利润翻番。

浙江另一水泥大企也表示:“据我粗略计算,2021年杭州、绍兴片区水泥均价同比提高了40元/吨左右,得益于此,企业利润也较为可观。”

但这样“火热”的景象并非处处都是。“2021年能耗双控形势严峻,水泥销量一般。水泥成本过高,利润也不理想。”浙西一水泥企业对中国水泥网表示。

中国水泥网数据显示,2021年浙江水泥价格5月到达“小高峰”,回落之后从7月开始飞快上涨,最高均价超过了750元/吨,即便年末价格有所回落,也与2020年的最高价位相持平。水泥需求方面,受能耗双控等因素影响,浙江9月以后的水泥产量明显少于2019年、2020年。

从上述信息来看,“有人欢笑、有人忧愁”可能是对2021年浙江水泥行业的很好概括。

不过,在谈及今年浙江水泥行业走势时,诸多业内人士却看法一致:不乐观

概括来看,原因主要有以下几个方面:

一是需求下滑。疫情后时代,基础设施建设或有所放缓,浙江新农村建设步入尾声,房地产行业水泥需求大幅减少,加上杭州2022年举办亚运会,与之相关的重大工程基本完工,水泥需求下滑或是大概率事件。

二是外来水泥冲击。仅浙江区域来看,水泥产能过剩情况并不突出。但浙江水泥价格居高位,“吸引着”江苏、安徽等地水泥通过内河输入,北方地区水泥通过海运输入,而这些都对浙江当地市场造成不小震荡。“据我估算,2021年有2000多万吨外来水泥进入浙江,2022年外来水泥是否会增多还不好说。”一业内人士表示了担忧。

三是供给受限。能耗双控的进一步严控,水泥企业碳排放指标的收紧,或都将对2022年水泥企业生产带来不小影响。

如何应对这样的形势?“心态放好”或许是一大利器。上述一企业负责人表示,落后产能的淘汰是一定的,碳指标、能耗指标的收紧势必将退出一批竞争力弱的中小企业,对行业而言也并非坏事。

不过总体而言,“优胜劣汰”放在任何时期都是大趋势。尤其在可能到来的需求下行期,成本控制能力、市场管控能力、企业管理能力就显得更为重要。

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Correlation

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