诸葛文达:看世界,抑煤价,实现水泥行业碳责任

2021-10-19 11:10:49

诸葛文达表示:错峰生产,降低水泥产量;提高水泥质量,提供有效供给,提高建筑物寿命,是减少水泥行业碳排放的有效措施。

编者按:近期,全国煤炭等原燃料价格保持高位上涨趋势,水泥成本大幅攀升,针对这一形势,湖北世纪新峰水泥董事长诸葛文达发表了自己的看法。  

图为湖北世纪新峰水泥董事长 诸葛文达

一、宇宙恒久远  

1.地球的年龄平均的天文估值45.5亿年;  

2.银河系的年龄各种方法测量,约在80~180亿年左右;  

3.宇宙的年龄不知道多久,想像不出来。  

4.宇宙之迷,不知道您从哪里来,也不知道您要到哪里;不知道今时之宇宙,有没有经历过轮回,以后还会不会轮回。  

二、生命短暂,智慧久远  

地球生命起源:在约35亿年前,地球经历逐渐冷却,轻浮重沉之后,相对稳定下来后,生命就出现了。我们发现,只要条件适合,生命就会产生,然后死去,然后重生。我在猜想,生命产生的程序记录在物质的各种层次中,从DNA到分子、原子、质子、电子甚至更微小的粒子中,静静地待时而发。  

三、人生的意义和价值在于改变世界  

对世界上绝大多数人来说,人生一无意义,二无价值。他们也从来不考虑这样的哲学问题。  

世界还需要一小部分人,考虑这样的问题。这一小部分人或是思想家,或是政治家,也可能是喜欢考虑的普通人。  

宇宙的形成,这些人影响不了;地球的形成,这些人影响不了;地球上形成生命,并进化出各种微生物、植物、动物,这些人影响不了;这么多的微生物、植物或是动物,历亿万年形成煤炭或是原油,这些人影响不了。  

直到人类出现,并不断增加,成为影响食物链、环境链、生产链、消费链中的重要一极,并从被动适应环境转为主动控制环境,这些思考者、行动者和领导者,才变得重要起来,并真实有效地改变世界。他们的人生意义和价值正在于改变世界,虽然这些改变世界的行为不能确保都是正确的。  

前一阶段,这样的改变的努力方向,主要是改善环境。  

目前,这样的改变的努力方向,正在向控制碳排放,以防止地球变暖的目标进发。  

四、影响地表温度的主要因素分析  

1.太阳发散能量的强弱变化,是影响地表温度的第一重要因素  

这样的影响,亿年级的长期的总的趋势是变冷;万年级的趋势是时冷时热;百年级的趋势更是时冷时热。目前的阶段是从小暖季趋向于小寒季。  

2.地球自身的灾难,是影响地表温度的第二重要因素  

这样的影响,主要有不太小的小行星撞击地球,或地球自身的特大火山爆发,带来的地表温度变化,基本上都是极寒,并带来生物大灭绝,典型如五千万年前外星撞出墨西哥湾导致恐龙灭绝;又如明末冰岛火山爆发导致全球变冷,中国因饥荒,爆发农民起义,满清也在与明抢粮过程中意外练兵崛起;欧洲则因此而走向工业革命和殖民扩张。  

3.工业革命带来的碳排放增加,是近百年全球气温上升的主要影响  

工业革命带来的矿石能源的大量使用,排出大量以二氧化碳为主的温室气体,导致地表温度逐步上升。  

工业粉尘的增加,则有双重作用,在热带和温带,粉尘在空中飘浮,会把太阳光反射回太空,使得地表温度降低;飘落到冰川的粉尘,则有利于冰川吸收太阳光热,导致南北极和藏区温度升高,冰川加速融化。  

4.农林业的发展,吸收了大量的二氧化碳,抵消了部分碳排放  

工业革命产生的大量的二氧化碳,正是植物的粮食,并促进了农林业产出的大幅增加。正因如此,世界人口才实现了大幅增加,从唐朝时的全球两亿多人口,增加到现在的近百亿人口。  

2020年世界粮食总产量(不包括水果林木)为26亿吨,如果秸秆与之一样数量,则共为52亿吨,仅粮食生产一项,需要吸收二氧化碳50亿吨左右。  

中国的森林吸收了中国大约百分之四十五的二氧化碳,世界的森林和海洋藻类吸收了世界大部分的二氧化碳排放,所以,空气中的二氧化碳增长得并不快,这不及地球形成之初时的千分之一。  

今年的5月份,地球大气中的二氧化碳含量达到419ppm,为500年来的最高值,即二氧化碳在空气中的体积比为千分之0.419。  

5.畜禽业的发展,释放出大量的以甲烷为主的碳排放,成为碳排放新大户  

此前世界气象组织发布的温室气体公报显示,2019年主要温室气体的全球大气年平均浓度达到新高,二氧化碳、甲烷、氧化亚氮分别为工业化前水平的148%、260%和123%。注意,平均浓度增长最快的甲烷,其温室效应是二氧化碳的28倍。甲烷最大的来源是畜禽(包括人)的粪便,在自然界中发酵产生。  

大家一讲全球变暖,就想到碳减排;一讲碳减排,就想到减少二氧化碳排放。没有人琢磨怎么样减少甲烷排放。  

世界每年消耗26亿吨粮食,约有6~8亿吨成为粪便,最终约产生2~3亿吨甲烷,其温室效应当量约等于50~80亿吨二氧化碳排放。  

五、稳定地表温度的方法  

1.调节地球对太阳能量吸收的比例,从根本上实现地表温度的可控  

实现路径:在太空中建设大面积可调角度反光镜,合理增加或减少太阳光射入地球的比例(我们什么时候才能实现这一目标?50年?)。  

2.防范小行星直击地球(我们什么时候才能实现这一目标?100年?)  

3,控制地球火山大喷发,用多次主动小喷发代替一次性大喷发(我们什么时候才能实现这一目标?100年?)  

4.利用清洁能源,减少煤炭用量,从而减少碳排放,降低温室带来的地表温度上升(电力需求刚性增长,清洁能源增长乏力,伪清洁能源滥竽充数,怎么办?)  

5.减少畜禽业甲烷排放,是切实可行的碳减排措施  

改变畜禽业的粪污处理方式,抛弃有机肥路线,改为大型高效沼气路线。  

有机肥路线的最终结果是有机物转化为甲烷并分散入空气中。  

沼气池路线的最终结果是有机物转化为甲烷经燃烧回收能量,甲烷燃烧生成二氧化碳,温室效应大幅降低。德国的沼气能源已经占能源总量的20%左右,德国经验表明,这才是方向。  

6.适度容忍秸秆燃烧,是减少碳排放的重要手段  

与畜禽粪污处理一样,秸秆燃燃生成二氧化碳,秸秆还田生成甲烷,甲烷的温室效应是二氧化碳的几十倍。  

7.减少工业二氧化碳排放  

(1)依靠科技进步,逐步减少工业二氧化碳排放  

这种方法见效慢,不容易出政绩,特别是经济刚性增长时,更难实现总量减少。我们需要耐心。  

(2)依靠行政力量,快速减少工业二氧化碳排放  

这种方法简单易行,见效快,对经济实质性伤害大,已经引起能源价格大涨,PPI大涨,CPI不涨,风险极大。我们不能急功近利。  

8.减少居民用电,减少其它消费品消费量,以减少温度气体排放量  

减少浪费,知易行难,预计实现不了。  

9.低生育率将导致碳减排自动实现  

老龄化带来消费动能减弱,少子化带来房地产业危机,2022年起,水泥钢铁玻陶消费量预计会明显下降,带动煤炭消费量下降。  

10.小结  

目前为实现碳减排采取的措施,严重扰动经济正常运行;碳减排的新重点在于实现农业生产的低碳化;低生育率将导致三十年后自动实现碳减排。  

六,水泥行业的碳责任  

水泥行业是碳排放大户,不仅燃煤产生二氧化碳,主要原料石灰石高温分解产生更多的二氧化碳。  

错峰生产,降低水泥产量;提高水泥质量,提供有效供给,提高建筑物寿命,是减少水泥行业碳排放的有效措施。  

最近煤价连续暴涨,水泥和煤炭比价持续下降,煤价带动水泥价格上涨,水泥销量减少,部分区域仍然全行业亏损。水泥行业应该加大限产力度,减少煤炭用量,顺便实现碳减排的任务。

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Correlation

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2025-04-25 17:12:37

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On April 24, the Chongqing Economic and Information Commission issued the Announcement on the Calculation Days of Annual Production Capacity of Chongqing Cement Clinker Production Line and the List of Enterprises Affiliated to It. According to the announcement, among the 47 cement clinker production lines in Chongqing, the annual production capacity of 22 cement clinker lines is 300 days, and that of 25 cement clinker lines is 270 days.

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2025-04-25 14:54:47

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2025-04-25 13:29:25

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2025-04-25 10:42:01

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2025-04-24 15:49:18

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2025-04-24 10:52:51

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2025-04-24 10:03:28

Beginning in 2024, according to the requirements of the relevant policy documents of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the cement industry began to fill the overcapacity. According to the statistics of China Cement Network, as of April 23, 57 production lines in the national cement industry had completed their production capacity, with a total of 19.45 million tons of cement clinker production capacity, and at least 41 production lines had been withdrawn, with a total capacity of 31.65 million tons.

2025-04-24 10:01:53

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Xizang Langxian Gaozheng Building Materials Co., Ltd. intends to build a 4000t/d cement clinker production line project (hereinafter referred to as "Langxian Project") in Nyingchi City Langxian County by means of capacity replacement within the autonomous region.

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2025-04-24 09:24:04

Since April 23, the main cement enterprises in Liaozhong area have again notified the increase of cement price by 10 yuan/ton.

2025-04-23 17:24:32

The market price range of C30 concrete in Tianjin is between 280 yuan/m3 and 290 yuan/m3, showing some regional differences. Jinnan District has the highest price of 290 yuan per square meter, while Jizhou District and Xiqing District have the lowest price of 280 yuan per square meter.

2025-04-23 17:14:42

Recently, affected by the market situation, coupled with the poor implementation of the policy of staggering peak and stopping kilns, cement prices in Wuhan have fallen again, with a cumulative decline of about 30 yuan/ton..

2025-04-23 16:45:10

Relevant technicians of Suzhou Shijing Science and Technology Co., Ltd. pointed out that SCR is a very mature denitrification technology, which has been widely used in power and other industries. However, the cement industry still needs to focus on the catalyst, soot blower and reaction tower flow field to further optimize the three aspects.

2025-04-23 15:08:00

For a long time, cement has been the main loading and unloading cargo in Changgang Port. Faced with the continuous decline of domestic cement market demand in recent years, Changgang actively responded to the situation, actively sought change, timely adjusted the market development strategy, and took the development of foreign trade cement market as an important breakthrough in transformation and upgrading through comprehensive consideration of the domestic and foreign cement market.

2025-04-23 13:40:23

On April 21, information from the Beijing Property Exchange showed that 51% of the shares of Xin'an Zhonglian Wanji Cement Co., Ltd. held by China United Cement Group Co., Ltd. were listed for transfer at a base price of about 200 million yuan.

2025-04-23 11:50:52

Price governance is an important part of macroeconomic governance. In order to further deepen the price reform and improve the price governance mechanism, with the consent of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the following opinions are put forward.

2025-04-23 10:34:13

The two sides will deepen cooperation around green building materials, new energy materials, circular economy and other fields, jointly create a new benchmark for the coordinated development of the industrial chain, and inject new momentum into the construction of "three places and one district" in Anhui.

2025-04-23 10:18:33

According to the announcement, the production capacity of Luoyang Huanghe Tongli Cement Co., Ltd. is 5000t/d after the cement clinker production line with a daily output of 4500 tons is completed. The replacement capacity for this project is 1000t/d of the 2000t/d clinker production line of Henan Tongli Cement Co., Ltd., and the replacement ratio is 2:1.

2025-04-23 10:13:11