[原创]全省逐步全面停产 江西水泥价格即将推涨

2020-12-23 13:55:52

在库位不高,一年的建设高峰时期停产是否会推涨水泥价格?一位水泥行业人士透露,在停产消息公布后,省内已经有大厂的销售人员表现了即将涨价的意向。

“目前已经一条生产线已经停产,第二条也在计划中。周边地市的南方和万年青的企业也陆续准备停窑。”九江当地一水泥企业负责介绍。按照江西省生态环境厅22日消息,经过和工信厅、省水泥协会的沟通,决定从今天(23日)至28日,全省水泥熟料生产线全面停产。

位于弋阳的海螺水泥、玉山万年青也对中国水泥网表示熟料生产线也已经开始停产。江西亚东表示已经对一条窑进行了停产,其余生产线相应减产。

为何在此时做出停产的决定?从江西生态环境厅的公布的消息来看,与近期空气质量的恶化有直接关系。

进入今年12月份,北方地区陆续出现大面积污染天气,污染物随冷空气南下影响江西,加之冬季大气边界层下降,环境容量变小,静稳天气多发,导致空气质量急剧恶化,截至12月20日,江西12月各地共出现了31个污染天气,南昌、九江等地分别启动天气应急Ⅲ级响应,江西面临着难以完成空气质量优良率目标的严重挑战。而据预测,未来几日省内不少城市还将出现重度污染。

其实此前21日,九江市就发布要求,“重点工业企业应按照减排清单执行黄色预警减排措施。砖瓦窑、水泥粉磨站、混凝土生产、露天开采等行业停产...”

据中国水泥网水泥大数据研究院统计,截至目前江西水泥库存在五成左右徘徊,熟料库位不足五成。“显然此次大面积的停窑会对市场供给产生影响,但还有库存,总体影响有限。倘若出现售尽的情况,会逐步恢复生产。”亚东一负责人表示。

在库位不高,一年的建设高峰时期停产是否会推涨水泥价格?一位水泥行业人士透露,在停产消息公布后,省内已经有大厂的销售人员表现了即将涨价的意向。

在今年年初疫情得到一定控制后,江西在全国率先推动复工复产工作,对于水泥行业产生了积极的影响,从当地主导企业江西万年青发布的业绩公告也可以看出全省水泥行业在今年表现的韧性。上半年江西省共生产水泥3224.2万吨,同比下降2.2%;全省水泥行业利润达到44亿元,同比增长10.7%。

从近期与江西多家水泥企业负责人交流的情况看,全年江西水泥需求呈现小幅下降的态势。“全省总销量下降5%左右,赣北表现好于赣南,南部主要受临近福建厂家的冲击。”江西一主流厂商销售人员介绍。另一家大厂透露该企业全年销量下降在百万吨以上。

“2019年下半年江西全省总共有六到七轮的涨价,而今年下半年只有四轮,且后面两轮调价落实情况水分较大。除了上半年价格没有多大回调外,与需求也有一定关系。”上述销售人员认为。

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国内气温普遍回升,南方局部需求略有改善,但混凝土价格易跌难涨,实际成交继续稳中有降。12月25日至12月29日,全国混凝土价格指数报收124.79点,环比下跌0.26%,同比跌幅为11.58%……

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2023年,受房地产持续调整等影响,水泥行业发展景气度继续下降。一季度下游复工情况尚佳,整体需求好于同期;二、三季度“旺季不旺、淡季更淡”,需求减弱明显,加之市场竞争激烈,水泥价格持续走低;四季度需求弱势恢复,水泥价格小幅上涨。总体来看,2023年水泥产量创下近13年新低,尽管煤价重心有所下移,但水泥价格降幅较深,行业利润大幅萎缩。展望2024年,我们认为地产对水泥需求拖累减弱,水泥产量或将小幅下降,产能过剩压力下水泥价格中枢下移,行业效益难言乐观。

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台风天气影响,混凝土量价双弱......

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[水泥大数据研究院]水泥产业链指数运行周报(2023.7.14)

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据不完全统计,截至2月14日,已有广东、福建、山东、重庆、陕西、天津、上海、广西等14个省份公布了2023年重点项目投资计划,合计14235个项目,总投资达35.29万亿元。另有部分省份尽管未出清单,但早已公布过年度投资计划。

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春节后国内大多数城市尚未完全复工,混凝土市场行情仍较为低迷,尽管局部上游水泥熟料价格有所调整,但混凝土企业报价暂时保持稳定为主。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收140.09点,相较于春节前持平,同比下跌9.39%……

2023-02-03 17:15:14

据中国水泥网行情数据中心消息,1月29日-2月2日期间华东长三角熟料价格连续推涨两轮,累计涨幅30元/吨,出厂报价涨至310-320元/吨。

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适逢春节假期,国内施工项目基本进入放假停工状态,混凝土市场成交量降至低位水平,部分混凝土企业节前继续下调报价,春节以来价格基本维持平稳运行。截至1月底,全国混凝土价格指数(CONCPI)报收140.09点,较12月底下跌0.69%,与去年同期相比,价格跌幅为9.39%……

2023-02-02 16:03:44

1月初全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为140.82点,月末报收136.75点,环比下跌3.45%;由于同期绝对价格较高,本期水泥价格同比下跌19.64%。

2023-02-01 16:01:00

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.