2017年前三季度水泥行业运行报告

2017-11-03 09:33:43

全国前三季度共生产水泥17.61亿吨,同比小幅下滑0.5%,比去年同期减少了2.1个百分点。水泥行业实现收入7206亿元,同比增长19.94%,利润达到579亿元,同比增长137%。

一、水泥需求北降南涨,整体持平去年同期

  随着我国经济新常态的形成,经济增长速度由高速增长转为中高速增长,投资对经济的驱动力呈下行趋势。同时,近几年来我国固定资产投资同比增速持续下滑,去年年中以来,增速下滑的速度出现明显放缓。今年1-9月份,我国固定资产投资完成额同比增长7.5%,比去年同期增速减少0.7个百分点。此外,今年固定资产投资增速更加趋于平缓,前三季度最大振幅1.7个百分点,低于前两年的水平。

  图1:2015年-2017年9月固定资产投资情况(%,万亿元)

  数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥网,水泥研究院

  今年前三季度房地产投资同比增速呈现出先涨后跌并最终平稳的态势,截止9月底,实现房地产投资8.06万亿元,同比增长8.1个百分点。相对于2015年的大幅下跌和2016年的震荡式上行,今年的房地产投资增速更加稳定。

  图2:2015年-2017年9月房地产投资情况(%,万亿元)

  数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥网,水泥研究院

  在房屋施工面积、新开工面积、竣工面积和销售面积中,施工面积同比增速一直是最为平稳的,稳定的施工在一定程度上支撑了水泥需求。今年前三季度,施工面积同比增速为3.1%,与前两年同期相比增速基本持平,但与年初相比,1-9月内并没有像前两年一样出现明显的下滑。新开工面积同比增速在经历2015年持续的负增长之后,2016年开始大幅回升并逐渐稳定,今年前三季度实现新开工面积同比上涨6.8个百分点,与去年增速持平。竣工面积增速上,今年前三季度整体呈下行趋势,截止9月底,实现同比上涨1%,远低于去年同期增速水平。销售面积同比增速自2016年年初之后便不断下行,今年前三季度增速为10.3%。

  图3:2015年-2017年9月房屋新开工、施工、竣工和销售增速情况(%)

  数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥网,水泥研究院

  基础设施建设方面,虽然年初基建投资同比增速与2015年持平,并高于2016年的水平,但前两个季度增速下滑速度较快,导致今年前三季度的基建投资同比增速明显低于前两年的水平。截止9月底,基础设施建设投资完成额为12.44万亿元,同比上涨15.88%,比去年同期减少了2个百分点左右。

  图4:2015年-2017年9月基础设施建设投资情况(%,万亿元)

  数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥网,水泥研究院

  今年前三季度,铁路运输投资增速整体呈下行趋势,虽然7-8月有反弹回升,但截至9月底,铁路运输投资增速再次回落至0.5%,相比去年大幅减少8.9个百分点。道路运输固定资产投资增速在今年基本稳定在较高的水平,而且在1-9月保持平稳中实现小幅上升,前三季度共实现24.9%的同比增速,高于去年同期9.9个百分点。今年前三季度水上运输业固定资产投资增速基本保持两位数的负增长,同比去年降幅扩大,1-9月,共实现同比增速-12.8%,比去年同期水平下降了3.5个百分点。公共设施管理在前三季度的投资增速缓慢下滑,但仍保持在近两年的相对高位上,截止9月底,公共设施管理固定资产投资共实现同比增速23.7%,与去年基本持平。

  图5:2015年-2017年9月铁路、道路、水利、公共设施投资增速情况(%)

  数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥网,水泥研究院

  今年的水泥产量同比增长速度相对往年来说更加平稳,1-9月的水泥累计产量同比涨跌幅度一直保持在1个百分点之内。这一稳定的增速略低于2016年的水平,但远高于2015年的同比负增长。全国前三季度共生产水泥17.61亿吨,同比小幅下滑0.5%,比去年同期减少了2.1个百分点。稳定的水泥产量再次验证了目前我国水泥需求已经达到了高位平台期,今年全年水泥产量与去年基本持平在24亿吨左右的预期不变。

  图6:2015年-2017年9月水泥产量增速情况(%,亿吨)

  数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥网,水泥研究院[Page]

  从单月需求端变化和供给端同比增速走势来看,房地产开发投资当月同比增速在二季度有所下滑,除7月最低仅有4.82%的当月同比增速外,其他月份当月同比增速基本保持在7%~10%之间。施工面积当月同比上下波动较大,6月份当月同比大幅增长至13.44%,但其他月份增速相对较低,3、7、8月更是出现了负增长。房地产新开工面积当月同比整体呈下行趋势,6月实现最高14.02%的当月同比增速,而7月又迅速回落至-4.91%。基础设施建设投资当月增速稳中有降,8月份最低仅实现了11.42%的水平。

  图7: 2017年前三季度水泥供需面单月增速走势(%)

  数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥网,水泥研究院

  各区域水泥产量方面,前三季度华东地区水泥产量最多,共生产5.64亿吨水泥,中南地区紧随其后,生产了5.05亿吨水泥。西南、华北和西北也分别生产了3.17亿吨、1.43亿吨和1.51亿吨水泥,东北地区产量最少,仅8056万吨。同比增速上同样是华东和中南地区最高,分别实现了2.75和2.32个百分点的增长。其他四个区域水泥产量均实现了同比负增长,其中,华北地区降幅最大,水泥产量同比增速为-13.09%,东北则同比减少了7.62个百分点。此外,西南和西北相比去年基本持平,水泥产量仅有小幅减少。

  图8: 2017年前三季度六大区域水泥产量及增速情况

  数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥网,水泥研究院

  分省市来看,由于错峰生产等因素导致生产时间缩短,而许多地区水泥需求也有所回落,今年前三季度有16个省市自治区水泥产量同比减少,其余15个地区水泥产量不同程度增加。其中,宁夏地区水泥产量同比增长最高,达到20.3%,其他产量增长的地区主要集中在华东和西藏新疆等局部地区。北方地区水泥产量大范围沦陷,除局部地区外各省水泥产量基本都呈负增长,北京以-25.4%的增速位列末位,内蒙古、天津、甘肃、黑龙江、青海等地也有两位数以上的降幅。

  图9: 2017年前三季度各省水泥产量及增速情况(%,万吨)

  数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥网,水泥研究院

二、水泥价格淡季不淡,旺季迅速回升

  今年前三季度,在需求的平稳支撑和供给端的有效控制下,全国水泥市场行情持续好转。根据全国水泥价格指数和长江水泥价格指数可以看出,冬季市场淡季刚过,3月份开始全国水泥市场行情便迅速回升上扬,5月底6月初达到顶峰后逐步平稳回落,8月底开始市场行情再次起涨,并迅速超过上半年最高水平。

  图10: 2017年前三季度全国及长江水泥价格指数

  数据来源:中国水泥网,水泥研究院

  从近几年的全国水泥价格指数走势来看,我国水泥市场行情在经过了2014和2015年连续两年的持续下跌后,终于在2016年下半年快速回升。2017年前三季度水泥市场行情波动情况基本与2016年相仿,均在传统旺季迅速上涨,市场淡季时出现下滑,但今年行情明显高于去年水平,水泥价格指数逐渐逼近2014年以来的最高水平。

  图11: 近几年全国水泥价格指数

  数据来源:中国水泥网,水泥研究院

  从各区域水泥价格指数来看,东北地区的水泥市场行情在3月中旬和5月上旬有两次明显的上浮,9月份出现小幅下行波动;华北地区上半年调涨则主要集中在3月中旬至4月中旬之间,8月淡季小幅回落后,9月又逐步恢复;华东地区市场行情与全国走势相似,自3月至6月初不断上行,6月开始稍有回落,8月底又逐步回升;中南地区由于各省市市场差异较大,涨跌往往不统一,整体市场行情较为平稳,但9月份区域市场行情出现明显的旺季上涨;西南地区水泥市场也比较平稳,6-7月稍有微微下滑,之后又逐步回升;西北地区市场则在3月至4月有小幅稳定的增长,7月份再次出现上行波动,之后一直保持平稳。。

  图12:2017年前三季度各区域水泥价格指数

  数据来源:中国水泥网,水泥研究院

三、行业效益大幅提升,亏损面进一步减小

  2017年前三季度,水泥行业实现收入7206亿元,同比增长19.94%,利润达到579亿元,同比增长137%,利润水平已超过去年全年518亿水平。今年上半年水泥行业利润为334亿元,因此今年仅第三季度就实现利润245亿元,其中,9月水泥行业实现利润88.75亿元,同比增长40%。预计今年全年水泥行业将实现800亿左右的利润。

  图13: 近几年前三季度水泥行业收入、利润及其同比增长情况

  数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥网,水泥研究院

  截止10月底,除了部分港股上市公司外,大部分水泥上市企业和部分非上市水泥企业陆续公布了前三季度的财务报表。其中,中国建材共实现营业收入880.38亿元,位居行业第一,同比增长26.02%,海螺水泥也实现了500.38亿的营业收入。归属母公司股东净利润方面,海螺以98.09亿元位居第一,占到了全行业近17%的利润。同比去年同期,冀东水泥、亚洲水泥、青松建化实现了扭亏为盈。此外,仅福建水泥一家出现亏损,亏损额为8022万元,相比去年同期亏损更多。

  表1:2017年前三季度水泥上市公司和部分主要企业业绩报告

  数据来源:上市公司公告,中国货币网,水泥研究院整理

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Correlation

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the overall market demand in Northwest China has declined, some kilns have been shut down, and most prices are stable. For example, the cement market demand in Gansu is weak at present, especially in Lanzhou and its surrounding areas, the inventory of some manufacturers is not high.

2024-11-08 17:27:44

Asia Cement said in the third quarter report that looking forward to the fourth quarter, the demand for cement will pick up to a certain extent. With the support of increasing peak staggering efforts, the contradiction between supply and demand of cement will be alleviated in stages. It is expected that the results of the increase in cement prices in the third quarter will be maintained until the end of the year, and the benefits of cement enterprises are expected to usher in marginal improvement.

2024-11-06 10:05:59

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places in Yunnan in southwest China has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Liangshan and Panzhihua in Sichuan have also begun to push up by 50 yuan/ton. In Guizhou, some major manufacturers in Qiannan, Qianxinan, Zunyi, Tongren and other regions have recently raised the cement price by 10-40 yuan/ton, while the quotation in other regions has been stable for the time being.

2024-11-01 17:32:29

The incorporation of the cement industry into the national carbon market will have a significant impact on cement enterprises in terms of production and operation, data control, transaction costs, energy saving and carbon reduction investment. With the carbon quota from basic satisfaction to tight reduction, it will effectively promote production reduction, thereby affecting competitiveness and supply and demand pattern.

2024-11-01 09:52:46

Since October, the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market has been relatively stable and has not risen yet. At present, the 4600t/d production line of the local cement industry has been ignited recently, which is expected to have a certain impact on the eastern Guangdong market in the short term. However, the increase in the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta and Fujian can lay a certain foundation for the increase in the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market.

2024-10-29 09:40:30

According to the statistics of China Cement Network, the annual carbon emissions of the cement industry exceed 1.2 billion tons of standard coal, second only to the power and steel industries, including more than 100 cement enterprise groups with annual carbon emissions exceeding one million tons. In the next stage, with the establishment of the carbon trading market, the cement industry will face unprecedented opportunities and challenges. The introduction of carbon trading mechanism will encourage enterprises to take the initiative to reduce emissions, transform the cost of carbon emissions into economic benefits, and promote the industry to develop in a more environmentally friendly and efficient direction. "Double carbon" is not only a responsibility, but also a cost and benefit.

2024-10-24 09:22:35

According to the China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in Lanzhou-Baiyin area of Gansu Province has risen by 10 yuan/ton; the prices in Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Shaanxi are stable. Affected by the big drop in temperature, rain and snow before the festival, the market demand in Qinghai has declined significantly. As the weather cleared up, cement sales in the region rebounded, and the market showed signs of warming up.

2024-10-12 17:29:56

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong in the central and southern regions is general, while the Guangxi region is stable and declining. Eastern Hubei and other regions plan to push up the price of cement by 30 yuan/ton again. Driven by the price increase in eastern Hubei, individual market prices in Hunan have been notified to rise again.

2024-09-27 16:48:15

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, cement prices in the Pearl River Delta market in central and southern Guangdong are planned to stop falling and rise again, while prices in individual markets in Guangxi have experienced a second round of decline. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, the range of price increases in the two lakes areas has been extended to the whole province, pushing up by about 30 yuan/ton. Since the 10th, some major manufacturers in Henan have pushed up the price of cement by 30 yuan/ton, but the actual implementation is not ideal, some enterprises have not implemented in place, and the quotation remains at the level before the rise.

2024-09-20 17:10:16

This article is selected from Song Zhiping's book "Reform Heart Road", which describes his motivation and effect of restructuring cement in those years, and has been published by China Cement Network. Recently, there has been a call for restructuring and mergers and acquisitions in the cement industry. Reviewing this old article may have the effect of reviewing the old and learning the new, encouraging the industry to promote a new round of restructuring, and solving the persistent problems of the industry.

2024-09-16 10:19:30

At the beginning of August, the National Cement Price Index (CEMPI) was 116.45 points, closing at 113.19 points at the end of the month, down 3.21% annually and up 3.8% year-on-year.

2024-09-12 10:41:53

However, in the semi-annual reports issued by major cement listed companies, despite the sharp decline in profits of the cement sector, the development of the aggregate sector is still steady. China Cement Network data show that in the first half of 2024, the demand for aggregate for concrete fell 10.8% year-on-year, with a total demand of 6.25 billion tons, dragged down by both downstream infrastructure and real estate. Therefore, how long the aggregate can support cement enterprises is indeed a pessimistic unknown.

2024-09-04 09:39:36

We need to establish the core values of "others earn more, I can earn more" to guide production and operation. In the short run, only by actively limiting production and restoring the balance of supply and demand in the weak market, can the cement industry achieve a recovery in efficiency. Without enough initiative and consistency to limit production, all those who talk about the price of cement are cheaters and hooligans, and they can not succeed.

2024-08-13 15:12:11

In August, the market outlook was weak, inventory pressure increased, demand was low..

2024-08-07 14:09:46

Demand is declining, supply is increasing, and the price of sand and gravel industry is adjusted in an all-round way.

2024-07-31 15:56:20

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the Northeast region shut down the kiln again for 15 days in August, which played a supporting role in cement prices.

2024-07-26 17:06:09

In the past two decades, the demand change of China's cement industry has gone through three development stages: high-speed development period (2004-2012), high-level platform period (2013-2021), and downward demand period (from 2022 to now).

2024-07-23 16:45:00

Cement and aggregate are "grasshoppers on a rope".

2024-07-05 11:41:59

According to China Cement Market Data Center, this week, the current round of kiln shutdown in Northeast China is coming to an end. Since April, leading enterprises have repeatedly pushed up prices, making cement prices in the region currently at the leading level in the country.

2024-06-14 17:27:12

Taiwan's cement industry has experienced a complete life cycle from germination, growth, prosperity to recession. Study Taiwan cement industry from the development since demand drops period, have draw lessons from a meaning very much to market of current mainland cement.

2024-05-28 11:53:23

China Cement Network Market Data Center News, Northeast China stopped kilns to boost the implementation of price increases, 13-17 leading enterprises in Northeast China have notified to promote cement price increases of 30-50 yuan/ton again, the actual implementation range is about 30 yuan/ton.

2024-05-17 17:32:33

At the beginning of April, the National Cement Price Index (CEMPI) was 104.8 points, closing at 108.1 points at the end of the month, up 2.51% annually and down 20.36% year-on-year.

2024-05-07 16:54:23

According to China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, more than 90% of cement enterprises will fall into losses in the first quarter.

2024-04-23 14:31:56

In the first quarter of 2024, the demand for infrastructure fell short of expectations, housing projects continued to shrink, and the concrete industry continued to weaken. By the end of March, the National Concrete Price Index (CONCPI) closed at 122.38 points, down 1.8% from the beginning of the year. Compared with the same period in 2023, the concrete price index fell by 12.8%.

2024-04-22 10:18:23

Recently, a number of cement listed companies have been surveyed by institutions and expressed their views and judgments on the market trend this year.

2024-04-18 11:15:12

We will make every effort to promote the development of aggregate industry and the development of production capacity, promote the layout of commercial and mixed industries, and create new profit growth points.

2024-04-16 17:29:01

Looking forward to 2024, CNBM will continue to unswervingly promote the implementation of internationalization strategy, promote the internationalization of all business, all processes and all elements, comprehensively strengthen the construction of overseas compliance risk control system, and take various measures to achieve high-quality development of international business.

2024-04-16 10:11:46

Looking forward to the second quarter, with the gradual stabilization of real estate and the accelerated issuance of special bonds, demand is expected to continue to release, but we should also be alert to the adverse factors such as insufficient funds, the arrival of rainy season and busy farming season, the amount of project start-up may be variable, the overall demand may still be less than the same period, and the space for cement price to rise under high inventory pressure. It is expected that the profit level may be at a low level in recent years.

2024-04-12 16:16:19

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the demand in many places is not good, and the price of cement is under pressure.

2024-04-08 10:15:54

The profit situation of the cement industry may improve in March.

2024-04-07 09:17:51

The general aggregate market is already fighting in the Red Sea, while the high-end fine aggregate market is still the blue sea market.

2024-04-03 14:16:17

Shao Jun believes that the industry should analyze its internal and external causes, take the initiative to solve the problems of overcapacity, the elimination of the elimination, the merger of the merger, the volume of the volume, the development of the development.

2024-03-29 11:12:17

Under the background of such a complex and severe cement market, how can the cement industry survive and develop next? The participants had a heated discussion.

2024-03-28 21:39:54

It is highly probable that demand will fall to less than 1 billion tons in 10 years!

2024-03-25 09:31:24

On March 28-29, China Cement Network will hold the "13th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony" in Hangzhou. During the conference, awards will be given to the top 100 cement and supplier enterprises. At the same time, experts and scholars, China Railway and other construction units will be invited to discuss the new development trend of the cement industry in the future, and work together to create the future!

2024-02-27 09:41:58

The new year means greater responsibility and higher pursuit. With the application of artificial intelligence technology in the industrial field becoming more and more mature, China Cement Network will write a new chapter of intellectualization and digitalization of the cement industry with colleagues in the industry under the guidance of the national "14th Five-Year Plan".

2024-02-10 11:13:17

Although the company suffered losses in the context of the sharp decline in the operating performance of the whole industry, the operating cash flow in the first three quarters was basically flat compared with the previous year, maintaining financial stability and ensuring the potential for development.

2024-02-05 09:23:30

In 2024, three new clinker production lines will be put into operation in Hunan; the construction of the western region will accelerate the development of new markets; the listed concrete companies will have mixed profits and losses in 2023; the performance of many cement enterprises will decline; and the cement products produced by seven enterprises in Hainan are not up to standard.

2024-02-01 14:26:38

Anhui and Zhejiang cement index prices rose on a month-on-month basis; cement enterprises suffered losses! How to Break Through; Jinyuan, Fujian, Jidong, Jianfeng, etc. Release 2023 Performance Forecast

2024-01-31 13:03:23

Declining cement prices in Hunan and Yunnan; How to resolve overcapacity in the cement industry; Tapai Group expects net profit growth of 150% -200% in 2023; Announcement of heavy pollution weather performance rating results of Hunan cement enterprises

2024-01-24 13:21:29

Can the supply and demand of cement industry improve in 2024? Can prices be boosted? How will enterprises break the situation?

2024-01-23 09:30:22

In this difficult period, how can the building materials industry find a turning point?

2024-01-03 17:44:39

The national cement price index (CEMPI) was 113.53 points at the beginning of December and closed at 113.37 points at the end of the month, up 0.21% from the previous month and down 19.96% from the previous year.

2024-01-03 14:34:56

With the decline of demand, the increase of new production capacity and the overall decline of the average price of cement, where is the bright future of the cement industry?

2024-01-02 15:58:24

难关未过,未来已来。接下来,让我们一起回顾2023年水泥行业热点事件,总结过往,戮力前行。

2023-12-28 11:49:29

2023年,下游终端市场仍然面临资金偏紧的局面,多数区域施工增量不及预期,加之上游企业竞争加剧,成本端支撑乏力,混凝土行业易跌难涨,效益进一步走弱……

2023-12-21 09:21:01

花园式工厂,高达近百米的预热器和旋窑熟料生产系统像一个来自未来世界的战士,刚毅稳健、充满活力。

2023-12-02 17:51:12

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.