美联储加息楼市承压 明年水泥行情再添阴霾

2016-12-16 10:30:21

楼市对水泥市场形势的影响不言而喻,在本轮美联储加息面前,国内房地产市场面临破裂的风险,加之国内经济形势持续下行,行业产能过剩严重,对于即将开启的2017年水泥市场而言,恐难言乐观。

美联储加息

  北京时间12月15日凌晨3点,美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间上调25个基点到0.5%至0.75%的水平,时隔一年后再度加息,全球非美元资产应声跳水。

  今年以来,国内经济形势有所企稳,原因依然要“归功于”我们老生常谈的房地产市场。不管你愿不愿意,至少在支撑经济形势方面,房地产的影响力仍然不可或缺。国家统计局数据显示,今年1至11月份,商品房销售额达102503亿元,已高过韩国、澳大利亚、俄罗斯等国去年的GDP。

  那么,销售额的上涨是否意味着国内房地产去库存问题开始缓解呢?其实不然,至少到11月末为止,全国商品房待售面积69095万平方米,仅比10月末减少427万平方米,去库存压力依然巨大。

  那么又是什么原因导致了房地产市场的“火热”呢?答案是资本投机。

  趁着国家要求楼市去库存的契机,社会资本流向一线、二线城市房地产市场,推高房价,加剧楼市虚假繁荣,而实际最需要去库存的三、四线城市面临的房地产产能过剩问题依然没有得到解决。虚高的价格在很大程度上已经将中国楼市推到了危险的边缘。

  回到此轮美联储加息,对中国经济的影响是多方面的,而最直接的当属人民币资产的贬值。对于靠资本投机支撑起来的中国楼市而言,这绝对不是什么好事。美元强势,人民币贬值压力加大,资本逃离加速,在这轮“剪羊毛”过程中,楼市站在中国经济的浪尖将面临极大的压力。

  由此,在即将开始的2017年,市场对国内楼市的预期将会下降。另外,有消息称,美联储本次加息周期中还将进行两次加息,无疑又将进一步打击对中国经济的信心,楼市在未来一段时间里压力有增无减。

  作为当前国内经济的关键支撑点,楼市承压带来的影响是方方面面的,尤其是对钢铁、水泥等产能严重过剩的大宗工业品行业而言,明年行业形势将再添阴霾。以水泥行业为例,房地产市场约占水泥总体需求的40%左右(不同地方,受经济发展阶段不同有所差异),其重要性不言而喻。

  今年1-11月全国1-11月份全国水泥产量220328万吨 同比增长2.7%。从纸面数据来看,貌似比去年有所回暖,但实际情况却并不尽然。据笔者对国内某大型水泥集团负责人的采访,今年国内水泥市场实际需求恐低于去年,行业产能过剩形势依然极为严峻。

  另外,今年下半年,国内水泥价格经历了多轮上涨,整体价格涨幅超过100元/吨的地区不在少数。对此,业内人士直言,煤炭、运输等成本上涨在其中起到了一定的作用,但是更主要的是业内企业协同力度增大,但是如果市场形势进一步下降,行业协同难度将持续加大。

  楼市对水泥市场形势的影响不言而喻,在本轮美联储加息面前,国内房地产市场面临破裂的风险,加之国内经济形势持续下行,行业产能过剩严重,对于即将开启的2017年水泥市场而言,恐难言乐观。

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Correlation

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.

2024-11-08 17:41:17

Recently, the construction in the south is relatively active, the local market demand is warming up, coupled with the increasing pressure on the cost side, the market price trend is stable and small. From October 17 to October 23, the national concrete price index closed at 112.14 points, down 0.02% annually and 10.65% year-on-year.

2024-10-25 17:29:24

In September, real estate investment continued to decline, infrastructure funds in place were insufficient, and some areas were greatly affected by typhoons and heavy rainfall, terminal demand was still relatively low, Jinjiu market expectations failed, but at the end of the month, affected by peak staggering and production reduction, the Yangtze River Delta region sharply pushed up cement and clinker prices, and the national cement prices rose. In October, on the supply side, it is expected that the supply side will be relatively stable, the terminal demand will continue to improve, and the overall cement price in October will show a strong trend of volatility.

2024-10-11 15:31:54

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong in the central and southern regions is general, while the Guangxi region is stable and declining. Eastern Hubei and other regions plan to push up the price of cement by 30 yuan/ton again. Driven by the price increase in eastern Hubei, individual market prices in Hunan have been notified to rise again.

2024-09-27 16:48:15

Recently, the local weather conditions in China are not good, the recovery of market demand is insufficient, the price of concrete is mainly stable, and the local pressure is falling. From September 12 to September 18, the national concrete price index closed at 112.93 points, down 0.21% annually and 10.83% year-on-year.

2024-09-20 17:55:34

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, cement prices in the Pearl River Delta market in central and southern Guangdong are planned to stop falling and rise again, while prices in individual markets in Guangxi have experienced a second round of decline. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, the range of price increases in the two lakes areas has been extended to the whole province, pushing up by about 30 yuan/ton. Since the 10th, some major manufacturers in Henan have pushed up the price of cement by 30 yuan/ton, but the actual implementation is not ideal, some enterprises have not implemented in place, and the quotation remains at the level before the rise.

2024-09-20 17:10:16

The market demand for concrete in North China is weak, and the price is under pressure.

2024-09-20 16:25:22

Most regions in China are affected by capital factors, lack of construction increment downstream, no improvement in concrete market demand, and downward pressure on local quotations. From August 22 to August 28, the national concrete price index closed at 113.68 points, down 0.42% annually and 11.12% year-on-year.

2024-08-30 17:31:27

Market demand in central and southern China is general, and concrete prices are weak..

2024-08-30 16:41:14

The demand for concrete in North China is weak and the price is under pressure.

2024-08-30 16:29:57

According to the cement network market data center news, Ningxia prices continue to decline; Shaanxi region recently due to the contradiction between supply and demand and price competition led to a larger price reduction.

2024-08-02 16:39:35

According to the data center of China Cement Market, due to the low ex-factory prices in various regions, some regions began to resume pricing this week.

2024-08-02 16:30:32

Demand is declining, supply is increasing, and the price of sand and gravel industry is adjusted in an all-round way.

2024-07-31 15:56:20

Rainfall continued in many parts of the country, local typhoons invaded, downstream construction was slow, and concrete prices fell steadily. From July 18th to July 24th, the national concrete price index closed at 116.05 points, down 0.58%.

2024-07-26 20:17:51

Affected by the typhoon weather, the price of concrete was under great pressure during the week.

2024-07-26 14:38:38

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, heavy rainfall is prevalent in East China this week, with mountain torrents and floods in some areas. Many construction sites have been shut down, cement demand has plummeted, and cement prices have fallen slightly.

2024-07-12 15:40:36

In the first quarter of 2024, the demand for infrastructure fell short of expectations, housing projects continued to shrink, and the concrete industry continued to weaken. By the end of March, the National Concrete Price Index (CONCPI) closed at 122.38 points, down 1.8% from the beginning of the year. Compared with the same period in 2023, the concrete price index fell by 12.8%.

2024-04-22 10:18:23

The market is gradually recovering, and concrete shipments have increased slightly..

2024-03-15 14:56:23

According to the market data of China Cement Network, affected by the temperature, the market in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei has not improved this week, the environmental warning in Baoding and its surrounding areas has not been lifted, and the construction site continues to be shut down.

2024-01-05 17:01:27

据中国水泥网行情数据中心消息,7月底关中地区一些主要企业通知上调水泥价格30元/吨,但整体市场价格上调动力不足,本轮价格推涨基本宣告失败。

2023-08-18 16:25:18

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2023-08-04 17:20:55

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2023-08-04 17:19:52

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2023-08-04 15:24:04

需求疲软,混凝土行情继续走弱......

2023-08-04 14:59:52

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2023-08-04 14:35:19

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2023-05-12 10:54:31

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2023-04-27 15:50:13

当前,我国水泥产能仍然过剩是不争的事实,能源成本高企也同样是企业无法立刻解决的难题。那么,在此背景之下,水泥行业将驶向何方?

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2023-04-14 17:30:10

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.