美联储加息楼市承压 明年水泥行情再添阴霾

2016-12-16 10:30:21

楼市对水泥市场形势的影响不言而喻,在本轮美联储加息面前,国内房地产市场面临破裂的风险,加之国内经济形势持续下行,行业产能过剩严重,对于即将开启的2017年水泥市场而言,恐难言乐观。

美联储加息

  北京时间12月15日凌晨3点,美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间上调25个基点到0.5%至0.75%的水平,时隔一年后再度加息,全球非美元资产应声跳水。

  今年以来,国内经济形势有所企稳,原因依然要“归功于”我们老生常谈的房地产市场。不管你愿不愿意,至少在支撑经济形势方面,房地产的影响力仍然不可或缺。国家统计局数据显示,今年1至11月份,商品房销售额达102503亿元,已高过韩国、澳大利亚、俄罗斯等国去年的GDP。

  那么,销售额的上涨是否意味着国内房地产去库存问题开始缓解呢?其实不然,至少到11月末为止,全国商品房待售面积69095万平方米,仅比10月末减少427万平方米,去库存压力依然巨大。

  那么又是什么原因导致了房地产市场的“火热”呢?答案是资本投机。

  趁着国家要求楼市去库存的契机,社会资本流向一线、二线城市房地产市场,推高房价,加剧楼市虚假繁荣,而实际最需要去库存的三、四线城市面临的房地产产能过剩问题依然没有得到解决。虚高的价格在很大程度上已经将中国楼市推到了危险的边缘。

  回到此轮美联储加息,对中国经济的影响是多方面的,而最直接的当属人民币资产的贬值。对于靠资本投机支撑起来的中国楼市而言,这绝对不是什么好事。美元强势,人民币贬值压力加大,资本逃离加速,在这轮“剪羊毛”过程中,楼市站在中国经济的浪尖将面临极大的压力。

  由此,在即将开始的2017年,市场对国内楼市的预期将会下降。另外,有消息称,美联储本次加息周期中还将进行两次加息,无疑又将进一步打击对中国经济的信心,楼市在未来一段时间里压力有增无减。

  作为当前国内经济的关键支撑点,楼市承压带来的影响是方方面面的,尤其是对钢铁、水泥等产能严重过剩的大宗工业品行业而言,明年行业形势将再添阴霾。以水泥行业为例,房地产市场约占水泥总体需求的40%左右(不同地方,受经济发展阶段不同有所差异),其重要性不言而喻。

  今年1-11月全国1-11月份全国水泥产量220328万吨 同比增长2.7%。从纸面数据来看,貌似比去年有所回暖,但实际情况却并不尽然。据笔者对国内某大型水泥集团负责人的采访,今年国内水泥市场实际需求恐低于去年,行业产能过剩形势依然极为严峻。

  另外,今年下半年,国内水泥价格经历了多轮上涨,整体价格涨幅超过100元/吨的地区不在少数。对此,业内人士直言,煤炭、运输等成本上涨在其中起到了一定的作用,但是更主要的是业内企业协同力度增大,但是如果市场形势进一步下降,行业协同难度将持续加大。

  楼市对水泥市场形势的影响不言而喻,在本轮美联储加息面前,国内房地产市场面临破裂的风险,加之国内经济形势持续下行,行业产能过剩严重,对于即将开启的2017年水泥市场而言,恐难言乐观。

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Correlation

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