核心资产海螺水泥,它还有多少空间?

2019-12-13 09:18:53

水泥作为基础原材料需求主要来源于大规模的工业化和城市化进程。谈到需求,最好的需求是永不消逝的需求,,如果一家公司的产品是针对终端消费者、针对个人的话,比如说吃的东西,那这个需求就是永不消逝的,因为你总要不停的吃。

  核心资产诞生的过程:市场极度分散---行业增速减缓----出现激烈的价格战----有些公司不断提高自身经营管理效率----行业大量低效率企业被迫出清----活下来的有竞争优势的企业享受最后胜利的果实(成为核心资产),海螺水泥非常符合这一发展路径!

  水泥作为基础原材料需求主要来源于大规模的工业化和城市化进程。谈到需求,最好的需求是永不消逝的需求,如果一家公司的产品是针对终端消费者、针对个人的话,比如说吃的东西,那这个需求就是永不消逝的,因为你总要不停的吃。而像水泥这样的产品,是针对企业的,你首先要考虑的是它的需求会不会消逝?

  很显然,我们的工业化和城市化尚未完成,特别是二三线城市,还有很大的完善空间,所以暂时看不到水泥需求下降的趋势。

  行业详解:

  特性一:无可替代。所有厂商生产的水泥都是无差别的。

  特性二:因为水泥具有遇水成石,不可库存的特性,所以它的产量就是就是市场对它的需求。

  海螺水泥的核心竞争力:

  内部因素一:出身不凡,地理优势明显

  作为水泥生产主要原材料的石灰石资源,我国渤海湾以南离海岸线100km的地区内没有可供大规模开采的石灰石资源;我国水泥需求量最大东南沿海城市带长期作为水泥输入地区,长三角是人类历史上过去20年发展最快的城市群;紧邻长三角的安徽省石灰石品质高且储量丰富,并且主要分布在长江沿线20KM内,而长江水道是我国成本最低的运输资源,并且淮南拥有煤炭资源;

  内部因素二:举世瞩目的T型战略

  T型战略:即沿长江拥有丰富石灰石资源的地区建设熟料基地,在长江下游和沿海地区兼并小型水泥企业并,改造成粉磨厂或水泥转运站,形成“熟料基地+长江水运+粉磨站” 的独特经营模式。

  T型战略带来的结果:

  1、 原材料成本优势:熟料生产基地选址考究,或山坡建厂,利用重力势能运输石灰石;或靠近矿山,可用履带短距离运输,履带传输的运输成本约2元/吨,明显低于陆运成本。

  2、长江水路运输成本更具优势:利用长江水道运输熟料至粉磨站,减少运输成本。

  参考行业数据,每吨水泥的公路运输成本约0.5元/公里,而水运成本约0.05元/

  公里,是陆运价格的十分之一。

  3、降低销售费用:在水泥市场需求旺盛但熟料资源匮乏地区建设粉磨厂,扩大销售

  半径,降低了水泥的销售费用。

  外部因素一:行业的整合

  海螺2009-2014年从华东市场扩展至全国,期间不断新建与收购兼并。此期间新增产能1.69亿吨,增幅80%。销量从2009年1.19亿吨增长至2014年2.49亿吨,增幅达68%。中建材开启兼并收购大幕。中国建材集团成立于1984年,是世界领先的综合性建材产业集团。2009-2014年中建材开启兼并收购大幕,通过联合重组上千家民营企业,推动了水泥行业市场集中度的提升(市场集中度CR10从2010年39%上升到2014年52%),大整合为日后水泥市场变革奠定了基础。

  外部因素二:政策影响

  错峰生产、环保限产形成供给侧改革新常态,大企业寻求合作而非扩张,冀东水泥及金隅股份水泥资产整合,行业“弱周期化”新常态;海螺水泥经营战略上的重大转变:在核心区域内与中国建材、华润水泥等大企业走向战略合作,并且牵头维护市场竞争格局,在非核心利润区展开收购兼并,并进一步海外扩张;

  具体来看,2019年1-10月我国水泥行业产量19.0亿吨,同比增长5.8%。产量增速变化趋势与基础设施建设投资增速与房地产投资增速的加权变化趋势较为一致,年内水泥增量主要由地产端贡献。根据估算,2019年全国新点火水泥熟料生产线共计15条,合计年度新增熟料设计产能2500万吨,同增1.3%与2018年基本持平预计2020年新点火产能也在2500万吨左右,产能冲击1.3%,冲击有限。这组数据已经解释了海螺水泥不断创新高的原因:需求增速大于新增产能。

  这种状况能持续下去吗?市场上主流的观点是基建接力地产,所以水泥的需求还会维持一段时间,增速也能维持。于是有估值:持有三年24%的空间。

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