海螺水泥未来的增长潜力

2019-11-28 10:20:19

本篇文章主要探讨过去几年水泥价格大涨的原因以及“海螺水泥”未来的增长潜力。

       近期,水泥价格再现“涨停潮”,A股水泥板块也持续走强。其实这波水泥涨价浪潮从9月份就已经开始了,主要是因为随着夏季结束,房地产和基建迎来施工旺季,水泥需求旺盛。

  另外冬季来临,因为环保要求“错峰限产”大面积铺开,供给相应紧缩,助推了价格走势!

  今天要介绍的是海螺水泥。

  如果去翻一翻“海螺水泥”水泥近3年的年报,可以发现这几年业绩暴涨主要是水泥涨价导致的,反倒是水泥销量增长不多,从16的2.56亿吨到18年的2.98亿吨,增长约16.4%。

  所以,本篇文章主要探讨过去几年水泥价格大涨的原因以及“海螺水泥”未来的增长潜力。

  01 水泥涨价:供给和需求侧的“双击”


  从2016年初,全国水泥价格开始上涨

  【1】供给端

  1)供给侧改革,严控新增产能。

  从2013年开始,国内水泥行业开始出现产能过剩的现象。

  为解决这一问题,政府相继出台政策对水泥行业的新建产能进行严格控制,并且加大落后产能淘汰力度。

  比如:2013年的国务院41号文《国务院关于化解产能严重过剩矛盾的指导意见》提出了严禁建设新增产能,未开工的违规项目一律不得开工建设,实行等量或者减量置换的原则。

  历年水泥熟料产能

  目前,水泥行业净增产能处于历史低位,水泥熟料产能近2年的增长几乎为0,稳定在18.2亿吨附近。

  2)环保高压。

  2015年1月1日史上最严厉的《环保法》开始实施,加大了处罚力度,环保法不再流于形式。

  新环保法的实施导致大批实力较弱的中小水泥企业退出市场,但是这些企业的产能占比较小,对于供给的冲击不大!

  历年水泥产量

  新环保法的实施,真正的威力在于“错峰限产”,因为它针对的是所有的水泥企业。

  目前,“错峰限产”已经在全国铺开,从冬季扩展到夏季,执行力度逐年加大,相当于变相减少水泥产量,通过上图4可以看出:从16年开始,全国水泥产量已经连续3年下滑了!

  【2】需求端

  水泥的需求主要受房地产开发和基建投资这两个因素的影响,房地产端约占水泥需求的25%-35%,基建端约占水泥总需求的30%-40%!

  从16年开始,房地产景气周期开启,开发投资金额整体处于上升趋势中,其中17年至今,虽然政策调控压力较大,但投资总额不改上升趋势,19年1-10月份,全国房地产开发投资109603亿元,同比增长10.3%,仍然保持较高增速。

  另外,16、17以及18年上半年基建投资保持了较高的增速。

  不过,18年下半年由于“金融去杠杆”导致基建投资增速急剧下滑,好在在18年底政府推出“地方专项债”稳定基建投资,19年1-9月基建投资(不含电力)同比增速回升到4.2%,基建投资增速对水泥需求的负面影响基本消除。

  综上,在水泥产量逐步减少、需求量稳步提升的基础上,水泥价格从16年初一直上涨至今!(见上图)

  02 剩者为王:龙头是集中度提升的最大受益者

  【1】水泥行业的标杆

  多年来,海螺水泥凭借出色成本控制能力和杰出的战略(T字战略),市场布局辐射全国,成为国内水泥行业的标杆!

    数据来源:中国水泥网         2018 年全球水泥熟料产能排行榜十强,单位:万吨

  2018 年公司水泥产能3.53亿吨,熟料产能达2.52亿吨,同比增长5.4%、2.4%,居“2018 年全球水泥熟料产能百强榜”第二,龙头地位毋庸置疑。

  【2】行业集中度不断提升

  我国前10 大水泥企业熟料产能集中度达66%

  1)上文提到的“供给侧改革+环保高压”使得大批实力弱小的中小水泥企业退出市场,它们退出市场后的空缺由剩下的实力较强的企业填补。

  2)政策鼓励并购。早在2013年,工信部就发布了《关于加快推进重点行业企业兼并重组的指导意见》,《意见》重点支持优势骨干水泥企业开展跨地区、跨所有制兼并重组。

  2016年中国建材集团和中材集团合并、金隅集团和冀东集团重组、华新水泥整合拉法基瑞安水泥资产等多家龙头企业进行了兼并重组。

  整合完成后,龙头企业竞争优势愈发突出,至2018年中国建材、冀东金隅产能分别为3.94亿吨和1.04亿吨,合计产能占比已达到41%。

  未来,环保压力只会越来越大,“大鱼吃小鱼”只会愈演愈烈,水泥行业集中度大概率会持续上升!

  03 结语

  鉴于现在的水泥价格已经处于历史高位,且需求持续增加难以为继,供给下滑也趋于平缓,所以价格继续上涨的概率不大,这意味着后续“海螺水泥”的增长动力大概率只能来源于市占率的提升和规模持续扩大带来的成本节约,所以未来的业绩增长速度会变慢。

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Correlation

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