海螺水泥未来的增长潜力

2019-11-28 10:20:19

本篇文章主要探讨过去几年水泥价格大涨的原因以及“海螺水泥”未来的增长潜力。

       近期,水泥价格再现“涨停潮”,A股水泥板块也持续走强。其实这波水泥涨价浪潮从9月份就已经开始了,主要是因为随着夏季结束,房地产和基建迎来施工旺季,水泥需求旺盛。

  另外冬季来临,因为环保要求“错峰限产”大面积铺开,供给相应紧缩,助推了价格走势!

  今天要介绍的是海螺水泥。

  如果去翻一翻“海螺水泥”水泥近3年的年报,可以发现这几年业绩暴涨主要是水泥涨价导致的,反倒是水泥销量增长不多,从16的2.56亿吨到18年的2.98亿吨,增长约16.4%。

  所以,本篇文章主要探讨过去几年水泥价格大涨的原因以及“海螺水泥”未来的增长潜力。

  01 水泥涨价:供给和需求侧的“双击”


  从2016年初,全国水泥价格开始上涨

  【1】供给端

  1)供给侧改革,严控新增产能。

  从2013年开始,国内水泥行业开始出现产能过剩的现象。

  为解决这一问题,政府相继出台政策对水泥行业的新建产能进行严格控制,并且加大落后产能淘汰力度。

  比如:2013年的国务院41号文《国务院关于化解产能严重过剩矛盾的指导意见》提出了严禁建设新增产能,未开工的违规项目一律不得开工建设,实行等量或者减量置换的原则。

  历年水泥熟料产能

  目前,水泥行业净增产能处于历史低位,水泥熟料产能近2年的增长几乎为0,稳定在18.2亿吨附近。

  2)环保高压。

  2015年1月1日史上最严厉的《环保法》开始实施,加大了处罚力度,环保法不再流于形式。

  新环保法的实施导致大批实力较弱的中小水泥企业退出市场,但是这些企业的产能占比较小,对于供给的冲击不大!

  历年水泥产量

  新环保法的实施,真正的威力在于“错峰限产”,因为它针对的是所有的水泥企业。

  目前,“错峰限产”已经在全国铺开,从冬季扩展到夏季,执行力度逐年加大,相当于变相减少水泥产量,通过上图4可以看出:从16年开始,全国水泥产量已经连续3年下滑了!

  【2】需求端

  水泥的需求主要受房地产开发和基建投资这两个因素的影响,房地产端约占水泥需求的25%-35%,基建端约占水泥总需求的30%-40%!

  从16年开始,房地产景气周期开启,开发投资金额整体处于上升趋势中,其中17年至今,虽然政策调控压力较大,但投资总额不改上升趋势,19年1-10月份,全国房地产开发投资109603亿元,同比增长10.3%,仍然保持较高增速。

  另外,16、17以及18年上半年基建投资保持了较高的增速。

  不过,18年下半年由于“金融去杠杆”导致基建投资增速急剧下滑,好在在18年底政府推出“地方专项债”稳定基建投资,19年1-9月基建投资(不含电力)同比增速回升到4.2%,基建投资增速对水泥需求的负面影响基本消除。

  综上,在水泥产量逐步减少、需求量稳步提升的基础上,水泥价格从16年初一直上涨至今!(见上图)

  02 剩者为王:龙头是集中度提升的最大受益者

  【1】水泥行业的标杆

  多年来,海螺水泥凭借出色成本控制能力和杰出的战略(T字战略),市场布局辐射全国,成为国内水泥行业的标杆!

    数据来源:中国水泥网         2018 年全球水泥熟料产能排行榜十强,单位:万吨

  2018 年公司水泥产能3.53亿吨,熟料产能达2.52亿吨,同比增长5.4%、2.4%,居“2018 年全球水泥熟料产能百强榜”第二,龙头地位毋庸置疑。

  【2】行业集中度不断提升

  我国前10 大水泥企业熟料产能集中度达66%

  1)上文提到的“供给侧改革+环保高压”使得大批实力弱小的中小水泥企业退出市场,它们退出市场后的空缺由剩下的实力较强的企业填补。

  2)政策鼓励并购。早在2013年,工信部就发布了《关于加快推进重点行业企业兼并重组的指导意见》,《意见》重点支持优势骨干水泥企业开展跨地区、跨所有制兼并重组。

  2016年中国建材集团和中材集团合并、金隅集团和冀东集团重组、华新水泥整合拉法基瑞安水泥资产等多家龙头企业进行了兼并重组。

  整合完成后,龙头企业竞争优势愈发突出,至2018年中国建材、冀东金隅产能分别为3.94亿吨和1.04亿吨,合计产能占比已达到41%。

  未来,环保压力只会越来越大,“大鱼吃小鱼”只会愈演愈烈,水泥行业集中度大概率会持续上升!

  03 结语

  鉴于现在的水泥价格已经处于历史高位,且需求持续增加难以为继,供给下滑也趋于平缓,所以价格继续上涨的概率不大,这意味着后续“海螺水泥”的增长动力大概率只能来源于市占率的提升和规模持续扩大带来的成本节约,所以未来的业绩增长速度会变慢。

All can be viewed after purchase
Correlation

Yang Dan led a team to visit Anhui Conch Group to explore deepening strategic cooperation, focusing on smart factories, new energy, new materials and digital technology, and jointly promote the healthy and high-quality development of the cement industry.

2024-07-24 23:11:27

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, 25 major manufacturers in Nanjing notice to raise the price of bulk cement 20 yuan/ton, the implementation remains to be observed. The market demand in other regions is general, and the cement market is stable and weak.

2024-03-30 13:06:23

On March 29, the "2024 13th China Cement Industry Summit Main Forum and TOP100 Award Ceremony" was held grandly.

2024-03-29 18:00:30

According to the cement market data center, In the early stage, the leading enterprises in Guanzhong area of Shaanxi had notified to raise the cement price by 30 yuan/ton. Recently, the market demand has declined, coupled with the impact of price reduction in the surrounding market, the quotation of enterprises in Guanzhong area has dropped by about 20 yuan/ton in the week.

2024-03-29 17:12:50

Pan Zhonghong, deputy general manager of Anhui Conch Cement Co., Ltd., said that the current situation of the industry is very anxious and we do not want to see it. The serious overcapacity and the sharp decline in demand have further intensified the contradictions in the industry.

2024-03-28 18:49:53

How about the performance of cement market after the festival? The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Guidelines for the Construction of Carbon Neutralization Standard System in the Industrial Field; Hunan assessed 6 A-level cement enterprises; Jidong Cement 3 million tons of aggregate project was officially put into production and shipped; Duyun Shangfeng Southwest Cement signed the intention of 300000 tons of cement production and marketing order; Guangzhou Lixinsha Bridge was broken.

2024-02-22 13:45:03

The price of cement in Guangdong Pearl River Delta rises; the price of cement in Nigeria soars; CNBM, Conch and Huaxin actively expand outward; the energy consumption data of the cement industry in 2023 is introduced

2024-02-21 13:13:16

Actions speak louder than words, and practical work is the key. Conch Cement pays tribute to every striver! In the new year, all the cadres and staff of Conch Cement will anchor the goal, work hard, overcome difficulties and move forward tenaciously, strive to complete the annual target task, promote high-quality development, and contribute to the realization of the new "Double One" goal of the Group!

2024-02-21 10:09:04

The price of cement in Jiangsu declined and the price of bagged cement in Guangxi increased; Conch Cement participated in the establishment of a 15 billion fund to invest in the new material industry; CNBM's 40 million tons of aggregate project was put into operation this year; Shandong Linyi and Kangding Paomashan cement assets were auctioned.

2024-02-20 14:52:09

How did Ningxia become a "price depression" in Northwest China? Conch Cement won the mining right of limestone mine in Guangxi with 730 million yuan. Bahrain Cement consumed about 1 million tons. Nanning Hongshi Cement won the mining right of limestone mine in Guangxi with 300 million yuan. Several cement production line projects in Guizhou are in progress.

2024-02-02 12:28:12

In 2024, Xinjiang's fixed investment increased by 10%; Conch Cement's losses expanded; Jiangsu Jinfeng Cement Group's "trench spirit" continued; Maanshan Masteel Jiahua's commercial concrete equity was auctioned again with a price reduction of 37.01 million yuan.

2024-01-30 15:32:02

Reasons for the rise and fall of cement prices in Guangxi and Shijiazhuang; Ma Zhifeng: In the era of high cost and low demand, cement enterprises are playing a game between small profits; Conch Cement plans to invest 560 million yuan to build a photovoltaic power generation project; Shanshui Cement is expected to lose 850 million yuan in 2023; the central bank's reduction of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate will help improve the economic and real estate recovery expectations.

2024-01-25 13:05:17

Declining cement prices in Hunan and Yunnan; How to resolve overcapacity in the cement industry; Tapai Group expects net profit growth of 150% -200% in 2023; Announcement of heavy pollution weather performance rating results of Hunan cement enterprises

2024-01-24 13:21:29

The price of cement in many places in Yunnan increased by 30 yuan/ton, and the price of cement in Zhejiang dropped by more than 6%; the forecast profit of Asia Cement (China) and China Resources Building Materials Technology decreased; the State Council approved large projects in 18 provinces; Conch Cement planned to co-ordinate coal procurement resources to reduce costs.

2024-01-22 14:26:33

The price difference of cement in different regions of Gansu is large; Xu Mingxia: the industry capacity is getting bigger and bigger; Hainan Kunlun Group has built a new cement project with an annual output of 6 million tons

2024-01-15 13:41:51

According to the cement network market data center news, in mid-December, some major enterprises in Guanzhong area of Shaanxi notified to raise the cement price by 40 yuan/ton. Recently, according to market feedback, the mainstream of this push up is 10-20 yuan/ton.

2024-01-12 17:31:44

In the long run, Zhang Zhenkun believes that the cement industry will be in a difficult period in the next ten years, and the demand for cement will drop from 2.04 billion tons to 1.4 billion tons or even less in ten years.

2024-01-12 09:27:58

Cement price in East China decreased by 1.02%; national cement output in 2023; Western International Group invested US $1 billion to build a factory in Zimbabwe

2024-01-10 13:05:08

Shandong cement market price falls; Li Rongshan: cement off-peak production is a win-win policy; Liaoning plans to shut down kilns for 151 days in 2024

2024-01-09 14:12:31

Cement market price shocks; Zhang Xiaohua: "Rational capacity reduction" is an important strategy for the cement industry to get out of the predicament; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the list of typical application scenarios and cases of industrial green microgrid in 2023.

2024-01-04 13:09:03

The market is stable, Henan fell more than 5%; "2023 Top 100 List of China's Cement Clinker Production Capacity" was released; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced 27 industry standards related to cement, sand and concrete!

2024-01-02 15:02:03

湖北宜昌水泥价格下滑;水泥巨头纷纷“出招破局”; 薄克刚:维护行业正常秩序是第一要务

2023-12-29 15:33:05

水泥行业应认清形势变化,捕捉低碳大势带来的商业模式变革机会。

2023-12-29 15:02:54

作为行业龙头,大型水泥企业肩负着引领行业方向、推动行业进步的责任。面临“需求下滑、效益萎缩、产能过剩”等行业困局,水泥巨头们又是如何“出招”的呢?

2023-12-29 14:53:53

青海、江苏、浙江水泥价格上调;海螺、上峰、南方等入选安徽散装水泥10强企业;中国电建签署一重大合同

2023-12-26 13:59:19

精选|2024年混凝土需求预计下滑;超3.5亿元!国家给水泥厂“发钱”;国务院印发《空气质量持续改善行动计划》

2023-12-21 13:29:50

广东珠三角、云南多地及贵州毕节地区水泥价格上调;四川等地公布2024年错峰生产计划;福建五家水泥企业获得中央大气污染防治资金;华润水泥福州公司股权成功拍出;甘肃积石山县发生6.2级地震对当地水泥企业影响不大。

2023-12-19 14:49:50

贵州水泥价格大幅上调60-100元/吨;亚泰集团拟以近10亿收购公司;四川计划2024年一季度每条熟料生产线错峰生产50-60天

2023-12-18 13:14:07

陕西关中、安徽多地水泥价格上涨;国家统计局:2023年1-11月全国水泥产量下降0.9%;温州预计年进口水泥量将达到100万吨

2023-12-15 14:44:41

珠三角水泥价格结束连涨态势;海螺集团连签多个重要合作协议;取消地价上限,或将催生新水泥需求?

2023-12-14 15:12:13

广东珠三角水泥价格下滑,贵州黔中大幅上调;湖南郴州市调整水泥企业错峰生产停窑时间;海螺环保高层人事变动;葛洲坝、冀东等四家水泥企业拟入围湖南能效“头雁”企业名单。

2023-12-13 15:21:49

据中国水泥网行情数据消息,京津、内蒙古地区市场无明显变化。

2023-12-08 18:05:08

云南、贵州、河北水泥市场动态;海螺集团与隆基绿能签约;华润水泥控股改名

2023-12-06 14:45:27

水泥市场震荡上涨;水泥行业专属对话大模型ChatCEM即将上线;撤销!海螺水泥多个新建熟料线项目何去何从

2023-12-05 15:44:14

北方错峰停窑导致多省水泥价格上调;吴国强分析称市场需求低迷原因有三:房地产低迷、外来水泥侵占市场、产能过剩严峻,建议叫停产能置换政策。前三季度全国水泥产量14.95亿吨,同比下降4.32%,行业效益大幅萎缩。海螺水泥转让一宗土地使用权,底价仅1.8万元。河南查出5批次水泥产品不合格。

2023-11-13 15:20:48

1. 贵州、浙江、湖北武汉等地水泥价格上调。 2. 陈文胜表示,水泥行业应保持合理利润,转型升级是“必修课”。 3. 山东省发布2023-2024年度水泥常态化错峰生产工作通知,采暖季错峰生产共计120天。 4. 贵州省多家水泥企业获得大气污染防治资金,主要用于大气污染物超低排放改造。 5. 吉林省3家水泥企业入选省级节水型企业名单。

2023-11-03 14:31:42

湖北、上海推涨;万亿国债来袭,水泥股冲高;中国建材集团调整中国建材总院领导班子

2023-10-25 13:22:49

王建超认为,供求关系才是能否提升企业效益最重要因素,但在产能过剩如此严重的背景下,用能耗总量或者用碳排放总量控制,作为刚性指标控制水泥产能都是不错的办法,但他个人认为用碳排放总量控制是既迎合国家大政策、又能实现去产能的最佳选择。

2023-10-25 09:29:32

据中国水泥网行情数据中心消息,前期广西地区水泥价格持续下跌,为减少亏损省内多数地区尝试复价上调水泥价格10-30元/吨,广东地区有跟进上调计划。湖南地区周内继续通知上调水泥价格20元/吨。

2023-10-13 16:31:57

浙江、河南水泥价格上调; 1.[专题]2023年水泥行业上市公司中报综评 2.水泥冷暖大家谈|徐贵生:跟着海螺走 围着海螺转 3.再不抓紧节能降碳技改,两年后贵州33条熟料生产线将面临淘汰! 4.海螺、华新、红狮向外“突围”! 5.总投资约5亿!海螺水泥拟建220万吨/年绿色建材项目

2023-09-20 13:15:38

徐贵生表示,当前水泥行业的现状并不乐观,水泥价格跌势难止。尽管市场在不断萎缩,但稳预期、稳增长仍是下阶段经济发展的重中之重,引导房地产行业实现“软着陆”是当前各方的共识,在各路政策的加持下,水泥需求将会得到一定程度的恢复。

2023-09-19 17:30:26

水泥价格跌至5年最低水平; 1.海螺说是底线!山水说是生存关键!各大企业目标确定! 2. 总投资约1.5亿!红狮集团签约一飞灰资源综合利用项目! 3. 中国能建:副董事长、总经理辞任! 4. 高速大桥偷工减料?中铁五局深夜发声了!反转再反转!

2023-09-08 13:32:22