【CEMPI周评】上海湖北领跌 价格大幅下行

2014-06-03 11:24:59

上周五中国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为109.1点,与去年同期相比,上涨4.09%,与上一报告期相比,下跌-1.21%,已连续三周出现下跌走势,创今年以来新低。长江流域水泥价格指数(YRCPI)为110.8点,与上一报告期相比,下跌了-1.52%,跌幅仍高于全国水平。

  上周五中国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为109.1点,与去年同期相比,上涨4.09%,与上一报告期相比,下跌-1.21%,已连续三周出现下跌走势,创今年以来新低。长江流域水泥价格指数(YRCPI)为110.8点,与上一报告期相比,下跌了-1.52%,跌幅仍高于全国水平。上周行情继续下挫主要是受到上海、湖北、陕西三省价格大幅度下行的影响。

图1:CEMPI与YRCPI走势大幅走跌

数据来源:中国水泥研究院

  分区域看,上周,东北地区行情稳定,但销量依旧呈下滑趋势;华北地区北京、内蒙古两省个别厂家有所上涨,总体报价平稳;华东地区受雨水、外来熟料降价、下游资金不足等多重因素影响,水泥价格整体走低,个别城市如济南、济宁企业受天气好转开工率提升影响价格有所走高;中南地区各省天气略有好转,整体需求有所回升,广西价格继续走高;西南地区贵渝受雨天影响,价格有所下调;西北地区陕西再度下跌,目前已基本探底,其他省市表现平稳。

  从价格异动分析,水泥价格主要下跌的省份是上海、湖北、陕西,下跌幅度分别为-7.71%、-4.92%和-3.98%;主要上涨的省份是广西、贵州、四川,上涨幅度分别为0.37%、0.11%和0. 05%。

图2:全国31省市上周价格环比情况(%)

数据来源:中国水泥研究

  从具体变化上看,价格下调前三省份中,上海市受亚信会及中俄军演港口运输受限、部分原材料供应紧缺、上下游资金不足等多重因素影响,水泥价格走低30元/吨;湖北地区行情萎靡,各企业为刺激成交量,继续下调水泥价格20元/吨左右;陕西受市场竞争加大影响,西安、咸阳、渭南等地海螺、尧柏、冀东、声威等主要企业42.5级散装出厂普遍下调20-25元/吨,部分厂家同步下调32.5级袋装出厂下调10-15元/吨左右。价格上涨前三省份中,实际成交价格上涨幅度均较小,广西西北一带需求形势表现不错,企业库存走低,百色地区凌云海螺、田阳华润、田东登高、东泥等主要厂家相继对各规格袋装水泥出厂上调20元/吨,但高标水泥价格保持稳定;贵州遵义市拉法基上涨20元/吨,其他区域基本稳定;四川乐山市峨胜小幅上涨,区域整体价格稳定。

表1:价格下跌省份具体品牌价格跌幅分析

数据来源:中国水泥网行情数据中心

表2:价格上涨省份具体品牌价格涨幅分析

数据来源:中国水泥网行情数据中心

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Correlation

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Under the background of such a complex and severe cement market, how can the cement industry survive and develop next? The participants had a heated discussion.

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