Recently, a number of photovoltaic companies have issued performance forecasts for 2025.
It is estimated that in 2025, Tongwei will suffer a net profit loss of 9 to 10 billion yuan ; TCL Zhonghuan will suffer a net profit loss of 8 to 96 billion yuan ; Trina Solar lost 6.5-7.5 billion yuan; Longji Green Energy lost 6-6.5 billion yuan in net profit ; Jingao Technology has a net profit loss of 4.5-4.8 billion yuan ; Aixu has a net profit loss of 1.2-1.9 billion yuan ; Junda has a net profit loss of 1.2-1.5 billion yuan; The net profit loss of Daqo Energy is 1.0-1.3 billion yuan ; the net profit loss of Yijing Optoelectronics is 450-600 million yuan ; the net profit loss of Shichuang Energy is 298-358 million yuan ..
The above 9 PV enterprises are expected to have a total net profit loss of 383.48-440 in 2025.
, the industry was "delighted" when the third quarter report was released. From the perspective of enterprise performance, the photovoltaic industry seems to be coming out of the difficult period, in the context of "anti-involution", we have a little expectation for the performance of 2025. Digital new energy DataBM. Com also released a " , but after the 2025 annual performance forecast was disclosed, it was a big surprise. The fourth quarter's performance did not improve, but "dragged its feet".
According to the performance forecast of the above enterprises, the net profit in the fourth quarter is calculated respectively. In the
fourth quarter of 2025, it is estimated that Tongwei will lose 3.73-4.73 billion yuan; TCL Zhonghuan will lose 2.423-3.823 billion yuan; Trina Solar will lose about 2.299-3.299 billion yuan; Longji Green Energy will lose 2.597-3.097 billion yuan; Jingao Technology has a loss of 947-1.247 billion yuan; Aixu has a loss of 668-1.368 billion yuan; the net profit of Daqo Energy is expected to be -2.27-0.7.3 billion yuan..
For the "Waterloo" of the fourth quarter performance, on the one hand, based on the principle of prudence, many enterprises have concentrated on a large amount of asset impairment provision. For example, the total provision for impairment of long-term assets of Tongwei is about 1.5 billion to 2 billion yuan; On the other hand, " insiders disclosed to the media that the prices of large quantities of auxiliary commodities such as polysilicon and silver prices have continued to rise. Give PV Digital New
Energy DataBM.2026, Harder?"?
However, at the beginning of 2026, "Greeting" the photovoltaic industry is two heavy punches: First, the self-discipline of the photovoltaic industry has been completely stopped (for details, please click: before. Through "self-discipline" efforts, the photovoltaic industry pushed the price up to the "rational" range, and the price of polysilicon soared from 30,000-35,000 yuan/ton to 55,000-60,000 yuan/ton ; The price of silicon wafer rises from about 1 yuan/piece to 1.3-1.66 yuan/piece ; the price of battery rises to 0.4 yuan/piece ; The price of components rose to 0.8 yuan/W . Even 0.
The industry has not yet recovered from the suspension of the "self-regulatory alliance", followed by the news that the photovoltaic export tax rebate policy is about to be cancelled.
Since April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate for value-added tax of photovoltaic products has been abolished. In the short run, the imminent abolition of export tax rebates has brought about a "rush for goods" and "hoarding tide" in overseas markets, but it is an indisputable fact that China's photovoltaic export profit margins will be squeezed in the future. According to industry estimates, the cancellation of the 9% export tax rebate policy is expected to increase the cost of photovoltaic export products by 0.06-0.
In the long run, this is an opportunity to force the photovoltaic industry out of low-price competition, homogeneous competition and towards high-quality development.
In recent years, the export of photovoltaic industry in China is facing the situation of "volume increase and price decrease". Some enterprises convert the amount of tax rebate into bargaining space, and transform the support for photovoltaic enterprises in China into subsidies for overseas terminal markets, which not only causes the loss of profits of domestic enterprises, but also causes domestic enterprises. It also increases the risk of international trade frictions such as "double reverse" in China's photovoltaic industry overseas.
by the above policies, the overseas "rush to install" has also caused people in the industry to worry about overdrawing overseas markets in advance.
At present, the domestic demand is weak, and the overseas market is not optimistic: the prospect of the US market is still uncertain, the European market is constantly "building a green wall", and the demand of emerging markets has not yet formed an effective support. In this context, if the demand of overseas markets is overdrawn in advance, the business situation of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises will be more difficult this year.
Postscript
2026 is destined to be the key year for the photovoltaic industry to "scrape the bone and cure the poison". This means that the market competition will enter a white-hot stage, and the industry structure will also be deeply reshaped: those enterprises that lack the advantages of technology, cost, brand and so on are likely to be permanently left on this page.
In the painful "baptism" process of the industry, the continuous release of market demand will play a core supporting role for the photovoltaic industry in the adjustment period. Since the second half of 2025, China has promulgated a number of major favorable policies for the photovoltaic industry, such as "100 zero-carbon parks" and "10 million kilowatts of photovoltaic". At present, the most urgent expectation is when these favorable policies can be implemented smoothly, turning the blueprint into real orders and absorptive capacity, and providing a stable market base for the transformation and upgrading of the photovoltaic industry.
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