On July 22, the "2026 Photovoltaic Industry Supply Chain Development (Ningbo) Supply Chain Seminar" organized by China Photovoltaic Industry Association was held in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province. At this meeting, Yao Yao, chief analyst of new energy and power equipment of Guojin Securities, made a keynote report on the supply and demand situation and price analysis and forecast of photovoltaic industry chain. In the
first half of this year, the cost of PV modules decreased, mainly due to the decrease in the prices of major raw materials such as silicon materials and silver paste . On the demand side, under the background of high base, the cumulative new installed capacity in China from January to May this year was 59.59 GW, down 71.9% from the same period last year, mainly due to the "rush to install" affected by the policy in early 2025.
Looking forward to 2026, in terms of installed capacity, Yao Yao expects that under conservative/neutral/optimistic assumptions, the new installed capacity in China this year will be 155/190/230 GW, with a year-on-year increase of -51%/-40%/-27% . Yao Yao said that under the background of high base, the installed capacity is under great pressure year on year, and the domestic installed capacity in 2026 is more likely to show the first negative growth since the photovoltaic parity. However, considering that the modes of distribution and storage, direct connection of green power and zero-carbon park are expected to ease the pressure of photovoltaic consumption, and the implementation of the new distributed policy, it is expected that domestic demand will usher in a turning point in the second half of 2026; Domestic new installed capacity is expected to resume growth in 2027.
Affected by the pressure of new photovoltaic installed capacity in China, Yao Yao predicts that under conservative/neutral/optimistic assumptions, the new installed capacity in the world this year will be about 393/442/497 GW, -28%/-20%/_ 10% year-on-year; In 2027, global demand is expected to return to growth driven by the recovery of domestic demand. On
the supply side, Yao Yao said that as the southwest region entered the wet season in the third quarter, the operating rate of polysilicon increased, in this context, the price of polysilicon and silicon wafers will have some pressure; Due to the weak demand and high pressure on the supply side, it is expected that the price center of battery components will not rise significantly, but considering the obvious trend of "high efficiency" of terminal demand, it is expected that the premium of high efficiency components will gradually expand . With the promotion of less silver and efficient technology, the head enterprises are expected to usher in a turning point in the second half of the year, further widening the gap with the second and third-tier enterprises.
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