September, domestic cement prices have been pushed up on a large scale for a long time. From the beginning of the month to the end of the month, the national average price has risen by about 23 yuan/ton.
This should have been a signal of relief for the industry, but when the price curve was opened, the conclusion immediately became heavy-after the 23 yuan rise, the national cement price index remained at its lowest level in ten years. The national average price of cement is still about 20 yuan/ton lower than same period last year. At the same time, the cost side is all the way up . There are less than three months left in 2026, and there is really not much time left for the cement industry to move.
Up 23 yuan, still standing at the bottom
of the lowest price in ten years, this round of push up since September, the coverage is indeed not small, from the beginning of the month to the end of the month, the national average price has risen by about 23 yuan/ton, and many enterprises have simultaneously issued price adjustment letters.
However, if the time axis is lengthened, the gold content of 23 yuan will be questioned: the current cement price is still about 20 yuan/ton lower than same period last year. After this round of large-scale push up, the national cement price index is still at the lowest point in ten years. In other words, the essence of this rally is low repair- prices return from "very low" to "very low" .
Regionally, the price differentiation is more illustrative. Among the six regions, except that the cement price index in central and southern China was slightly higher than that in the same period last year, the other regions were all significantly lower than that in the same period last year: the price index in Northeast China was 36.78 points lower, that in North China was 25.82 points lower, that in East China was 17.43 points lower, that in Northwest China was 16.17 points lower, and that in Southwest China was 64.14 points lower, more than twice the average decline in the other four regions. The deep decline in the southwest reflects the long-term imbalance between supply and demand in the region, while the slight rise in the central and southern regions relies more on the short-term support of local infrastructure and peak staggering. What we need to be
more vigilant about is the implementation of the push up-the recent implementation varies greatly from place to place, and after the National Day, cement prices in many places have been lowered. The letter of price increase can be sent out, and the price can not be kept, which are two different things . The
coal price has risen by more than 140 yuan since the beginning of August, which is a sharp contrast
with the low price and a high cost. From early August to early October, the overall increase in coal prices exceeded 140 yuan/ton, which directly raised the cost of cement production, and in the short term, the coal price will probably remain high. The 140 yuan increase will eventually fall on the cost bill of tons of clinker and tons of cement.
What really makes 2026 special is the contrast with 2024.
2024 is recognized as the "worst year" in the industry in recent years, but even in that year, the high point of coal price in the second half of the year is only 875 yuan/ton, and it has gradually fallen since November, and the cost pressure has eased significantly at the end of the year-that is to say, the more relaxed it is at the end of 2024.
In 2026, on the contrary, coal prices in the second half of the year showed an obvious upward trend, climbing all the way from August to early October, which is now more than 100 yuan/ton higher than same period in 2024. At the same time, the average price of cement was about 80 yuan/ton lower than same period in 2024.
In the first half of
2024, the whole industry suffered a loss of about 1.1 billion yuan; in the first half of 2025, the whole industry made a profit of about 15 billion yuan; but in the first half of 2026, the industry again suffered a loss of about 4 billion yuan. In
one year, from a profit of 15 billion yuan to a loss of 4 billion yuan, the gap was close to 19 billion yuan, and the loss scale returned to more than three times that of the same period in 2024. 2024 has been the most difficult year in recent years, and the repair in 2025 once made people think that the turning point is now, but in 2026, it started from a worse starting point and entered the second half of the most profitable period. The
problem is that the second half of 2026 has not repaired the two legs that determine profits. On the
price side, the national average price is about 80 yuan/ton lower than that of the same period in 2024, the foundation of pushing up is not firm, and it has been lowered after the festival; on the cost side, the coal price is more than 100 yuan higher than that of the same period in 2024, and there is no clear downward channel in the short term. The peak season was supposed to be a window for the industry to repair its profits, but now the window is caught at both ends. The high
cost and low price indicate that according to the current rhythm, the profit probability of the cement industry in 2026 is significantly lower than that in 2024, while the total profit of the national cement industry in 2024 is about 26 billion yuan. This means that this year's total profit will probably be lower than 25.116 billion yuan in 2007, a new low in 20 years. It may even fall below 15 billion yuan and return to the level before 2006.
The following October, November and December will be the last chance in 2026. If we can fight back, there will be a chance of survival for the whole year. If we can't keep the price and control the cost, the total profit for the whole year will probably hit a new low, which will be much worse than that in 2024. Time is running out
for the cement industry.
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