Recently, cement prices in many places have risen, and cement prices across the country have continued to rise. However, this round of price increase is not driven by demand, but the passive transmission of the sharp rise in upstream coal prices, the industry efficiency has not substantially improved, and the downstream profit repair space is limited. Since the beginning of this year
, especially in the third quarter, driven by many factors such as increased security inspection and higher daily consumption of power plants, coal prices have been rising all the way, currently around 1000 yuan/ton, reaching a new high level in the same period of three years. Coal, as the largest cost of cement production, accounts for about 50%. For every 100 yuan/ton increase in coal price, the production cost of cement per ton increases by 10-15 yuan/ton. Coal prices have risen sharply, enterprises can only passively raise prices to cover costs, pricing power is seriously weakened, the current round of cement price increases are almost entirely forced by the cost side.
Figure 1: The price of thermal coal reached a new high in the same period of three years (yuan/ton)
Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Although the short-term price difference widened, The national cement and coal price difference index released by
China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute is an important indicator to observe the impact of coal price trend on industry efficiency. If the index widens, it indicates that the increase in cement price will absorb the increase in coal cost, and vice versa. In the short term, the price difference has widened to a certain extent, largely due to the long-term low cement price base. The widening of the price difference is more "passive digestion" than "active improvement", and the actual profit of the industry has not been significantly improved synchronously.
Figure 2: National Cement Price Index, Trend of cement-coal price difference index (point)
Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Low shipment rate confirms weak
demand The cement industry is a typical "short-legged" industry. Shipment rate is the most direct indicator to observe terminal demand. As of September 18, 2026, the average daily shipment rate of cement in China was 41.27%, slightly higher than 37.34% on August 14, but still at a low level in the same period in recent years. Compared with history, the shipment rate of the same period in September 2021 is generally in the range of 70% -75%, and the same period in 2023 is also around 50%. The current level of 40% means that the utilization rate of production capacity is less than 50%, and the social inventory is generally high.
In this context, it is a helpless move for enterprises to push up prices: while hedging costs by raising prices, it is intended to stabilize channel confidence and curb vicious price falls. However, the low shipment rate determines the limited range of this round of price increase. Once the price exceeds the downstream critical point, the volume of transactions will further shrink. Enterprises can only balance between "price increase guarantees profit" and "volume guarantees cash flow". The duration of cement price increase in the period of weak demand is often short.
Figure 3: Trend of national shipment rate (%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
The demand for the whole year is still weak, and the profit repair space is limited
. The fundamental contradiction faced by the cement industry has not been alleviated: the area of new construction in the real estate sector continues to decline, and the sales of commercial housing are difficult to improve significantly; although the issuance of special bonds for infrastructure construction is accelerated, the transmission of physical workload is slow; the overall demand for cement is likely to remain low. Cement prices may still rise sporadically in the fourth quarter, but there is little room for growth without demand support, and profit repair is relatively limited. The current "price increase" is only a cost transfer for the industry to survive in a weak market, rather than a signal of a recovery in the economy, and the industry is under great pressure to operate throughout the year.
Figure 4: It is estimated that the national cement output will decrease by 8%
in 2026. Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
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