Hengdian Dongci: Component prices are not expected to rebound well in the first half of next year

On October 28, Hengdian East Magnetic Disclosure Agency Research Express said that through the continuous strengthening of differentiation strategy, the layout of production capacity and marketing network according to local conditions, the shipments of high-quality markets at home and abroad in the first three quarters increased year on year. The announcement shows that in the first three quarters of this year, Hengdian East Magnetic Photovoltaic Industry realized revenue of 11.47 billion yuan, an increase of 43.6%

over the same period last year. The anti-involution policy has indeed achieved good results on the silicon material side, but due to the full entry of new energy into the market, the decline in the yield of power plants and the weak demand, the price of components has not yet rebounded significantly, and even the Q3 ring-to-ring ratio has a downward trend .

In view of the outlook for the new year, Hengdian Dongci said that if the supply side still maintains the existing relatively sufficient volume, it is expected that Q4 and the first half of next year's domestic component prices will not rebound too well.

At the same time, Hengdian Dongci expects that the global installed capacity will decline in 26 years. The main reasons are:

due to the high installed capacity in 24 and 25 years in China, the development and construction speed of downstream power plants has slowed down with the subsequent decline of power plant income, especially the uncertainty of incremental project income;

The European market is basically stable, and even if there is growth, it may be single-digit growth ;

The U.S. market is expected to rise after the introduction of OBBBA, but with the uncertainty of subsidies and the tightening of other approval policies, the increase is not expected to be too large ; There will be an increase in

the Middle East, Africa and other markets, but the increase is not enough to hedge against the decline in major markets.

In addition, Hengdian Dongci disclosed that since the first quarter, the company has made corresponding adjustments to the small board products for the shipment of BC 4 products in Europe, and continued to increase the market share in Europe. It is expected that shipments in the European market will continue to grow next year.

The following is the full text. From January to September

2025, the company achieved revenue of 17.56 billion yuan, an increase of 29.3% over the same period last year, net profit of 1.45 billion yuan, an increase of 56.8% over the same period last year, and revenue and profit of all sectors increased year on year; The net cash flow generated by operating activities was 3 billion yuan, with a weighted average return on equity of 13. Q3 achieved a revenue of 5.63 billion yuan in the single quarter, an increase of 40.2% over the previous year, and a net profit of 430 million yuan, an increase of 52.

Among them, the photovoltaic industry achieved a revenue of 11.47 billion yuan. Shipments 19. The Company continued to strengthen its differentiation strategy and launched ultra-high power products in a timely manner through continuous R & D investment, technological transformation investment and process optimization, which further enhanced its product strength; The layout of production capacity and marketing network according to local conditions has also made the shipments of high-quality markets at home and abroad better than same period last year.

At the same time, through the forward-looking supply chain layout, the fluctuation of cost is effectively managed.

1. With the promotion of "anti-involution", the upstream price increase is obvious, but the downstream transmission is more difficult. The company's outlook for the follow-up component price?

From the point of view of the centralized procurement bidding of domestic central enterprises, due to the restriction of the anti-involution policy on the bidding price, there has even been a flow of bids . If the supply side still maintains the existing relatively sufficient volume, we expect that the domestic component prices in Q4 and the first half of next year will not rebound too well. In this case, companies that can do a good job of supply chain layout in a forward-looking way will have relatively smaller cost fluctuations.

2. What is the impact of the US double-counter investigation on Indonesia on the company's photovoltaic performance? How can companies avoid trade barriers in order to make relative profits? Are there any capacity expansion plans overseas? However, with the fermentation of reciprocal tariffs, OBBBA Act, AD/CVD and 232 investigations, Q3 shipments have declined compared with Q2, sales prices have also declined, and with the rebound of terminal market prices, Q4 has recovered to a certain extent. The above problems have little impact on the overall performance of overseas bases in the past 25 years.

For example, based on the reasonable market-oriented survey results, it is predicted that the AD/CVD tax rate of Indonesia's production capacity should be lower , but from the previous double-negative results of the four Southeast Asian countries. There may also be high tax rates based on PMS (particular market situation) substitute materials, and restrictions on equity based on FEOC (Foreign Entity of Concern) rules. As well as the 232 survey trend of silicon materials and their derivatives, it also raised the barriers for overseas companies to sell batteries to the United States.

However, the production capacity of components in the United States is large, the production capacity of silicon wafers and batteries is small, and the cycle from project start-up to production is relatively long, during which the nominal value of production capacity is often higher than actual deliverable, and the cost is relatively high, so it is expected that there will be a large supply gap in 26 and 27 years. We will focus on the battery sector and actively seek solutions to meet the sustainable transactions between overseas bases and the U.S. market. At present,

the company is still conducting a dynamic and prudent assessment and evaluation of the impact of US policies on overseas production capacity. FEOC's restrictions on equity will make our investment decisions more conservative and inconvenient to disclose at present.

3. Global

the European market has remained basically stable, and even if there is growth, it may be a single-digit growth rate ;

the Middle East, Africa and other markets, but the increase is not enough to hedge against the decline in major markets.

The company will continue to dynamically adjust the market layout and business strategy according to the policies and market conditions of various regions, and balance and stabilize the shipment volume in multiple markets.

4. In the European market, BC is breaking through. Do we feel the competitive situation of BC against the company's original products? Now the power of 2382 * 1134 board type is close to that of BC. In addition, the Company has been deeply engaged in the European market for many years, which has basically stabilized its market share in the household market. In addition, with the fluctuation of electricity price in the European market, the demand in the household market has dropped, and our focus is to continuously increase the market share in Europe. From the current sales forecast of major European markets, it is expected that shipments in the European market will continue to grow next year.

5. Technical progress and metallization progress? In the past few quarters, we have focused on component power improvement, and the priority of base metallization has been pushed back a little.

On the one hand, we are concerned about the progress of silver-coated copper paste , including the progress of mass production of friends. On the other hand, because it involves the transformation of the production line, it also needs to judge the technical compatibility of half-chip passivation , back patterning and multi-chip. Therefore, the introduction of metallization of base metal substitution technology will be moderately postponed until the first half of next year.

6. Improvement of component efficiency, current mainstream and products to be launched in the future? Before the introduction of multi-slicing technology, Q1 can achieve mass production of about 650 W in 26 years, and the process route of 655W is relatively clear. 660W should be judged again, and the progress level of BC should be seen dynamically.

7. What are the growth points of the company's subsequent performance?

The magnetic plate will increase in emerging areas.Small cylindrical power batteries will also help in 26 years, and the overall goal is to use the increment of magnetic materials and lithium batteries to reduce the uncertain impact of the photovoltaic plate.

8. Market expansion and future prospects of soft magnetic materials in AI field?

9, AI application of magnetic materials, UPS to HVDC opportunities, product value? At present, the mainstream of the market is still UPS, while HVDC is the trend of future development. Its penetration rate is expected to gradually increase from the current 20-30% to more than 70%, becoming the next mainstream.