[原创]福建水泥市场:面朝海西 春暖有待花开

2014-05-04 13:17:33

福建处于长三角和珠三角的连接处,拥有良好的地理优势;省内闽西北地区拥有丰富的石灰石资源;此外,以福建为主体的海峡西岸经济区建设上升为国家战略后,获得巨大的政策支持。多年来福建省水泥工业在拥有“地利、资源、政策”三大优势下,取得了巨大的发展。但今后在全省经济增长方式逐渐转变以及水泥产业结构面临重大调整的情形下,区域水泥市场将如何演绎?当地龙头企业又将如何顺势而为?本文在此作一简要分析,以供鉴飨。

  福建省位于中国东南沿海,处于长三角和珠三角的连接处,拥有良好的地理优势;闽西北地区拥有丰富的石灰石资源,具有天然的资源禀赋;此外,自2006年以来以福建为主体的海峡西岸经济区建设快速推进,随后上升为国家战略,成为国家经济发展的一个新经济增长极。福建省水泥工业在拥有“地利、资源、政策”三大优势下,获得了巨大的发展。在全省经济增长方式逐渐转变以及水泥产业结构面临重大调整的情形下,区域水泥市场将如何演绎?当地龙头企业又将如何顺势而为?本文在此作一简要分析,以供鉴飨。

一、福建水泥行业运行现状

1.1、自“十一五”起,全省经济增长开始发力

  福建省位于东南沿海,处于全国东部经济快速发展的地区,尤其是位于长三角和珠三角的连接处,全省经济发展拥有众多有利条件。但在长三角和珠三角的经济发展领跑全国经济的时候,福建在“十一五”之前的经济增长却步履姗姗,与周边地区形成了明显差距。通过全省多年的坚持和努力,2006年国家“十一五”规划明确指出支持海峡西岸经济区发展,2009年海西战略由地方战略全面升级为国家战略。这为以福建为主体的海峡西岸经济区建设的全面推进提供有力支持和保障。

  在2006年以前,福建的GDP增速不及周边三省,最高增速为2004年的10.8%;而自2006年起,全省加快发展步伐,尤其在“十一五”期间,GDP增速上升一个台阶,年均增速提升至13.84%,较“十五”期间的10.76%高出3.08个百分点。在2006年以后,福建省的经济增速高于周边的浙江、江西和广东等省份,显示其强大的经济发展动力和巨大的增长空间。2011至2013年,全省GDP增速分别为12.30%、11.10%和11.00%,呈现下行走势,但依然处于较高位。地区经济经过多年的快速发展使得全省综合实力明显增强,全省人均GDP快速增长,在2010年福建仅为40025元/人,与广东的44736元/人,尚有一定的距离,但至2013年,两省的人均GDP差距已缩小至1000元/人,福建省大有迎头赶上之势。

图1:自“十一五”起,福建省GDP增速居周边各省之首 

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

1.2、多年来区域内的基建、房地产投资保持高位

  随着2009年海峡西岸经济区在全国发展大局中地区作用的提升,福建全省开始进入全面建设,经济一体化、投资贸易自由化、产业高级化、区域城镇化等发展目标清晰明确,由此促使全省加快固定资产投资,为实现未来经济的腾飞打下坚实基础。2010年全省固定资产投资增速为33.10%,一改2008和2009年投资增长乏力的态势。随后由于受国家宏观经济大环境的影响,福建全省的固定资产投资增速有所减缓,由2011年的27.80%下降至2013年的23.50%。2013年的固定资产投资增速为近四年来的新低,但依然整体表现较为稳健,且此增速居2013年华东各省之首,较周边的江西、浙江分别高出3.5和5.4个百分点。

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