[原创]福建水泥市场:面朝海西 春暖有待花开

2014-05-04 13:17:33

福建处于长三角和珠三角的连接处,拥有良好的地理优势;省内闽西北地区拥有丰富的石灰石资源;此外,以福建为主体的海峡西岸经济区建设上升为国家战略后,获得巨大的政策支持。多年来福建省水泥工业在拥有“地利、资源、政策”三大优势下,取得了巨大的发展。但今后在全省经济增长方式逐渐转变以及水泥产业结构面临重大调整的情形下,区域水泥市场将如何演绎?当地龙头企业又将如何顺势而为?本文在此作一简要分析,以供鉴飨。

  福建省位于中国东南沿海,处于长三角和珠三角的连接处,拥有良好的地理优势;闽西北地区拥有丰富的石灰石资源,具有天然的资源禀赋;此外,自2006年以来以福建为主体的海峡西岸经济区建设快速推进,随后上升为国家战略,成为国家经济发展的一个新经济增长极。福建省水泥工业在拥有“地利、资源、政策”三大优势下,获得了巨大的发展。在全省经济增长方式逐渐转变以及水泥产业结构面临重大调整的情形下,区域水泥市场将如何演绎?当地龙头企业又将如何顺势而为?本文在此作一简要分析,以供鉴飨。

一、福建水泥行业运行现状

1.1、自“十一五”起,全省经济增长开始发力

  福建省位于东南沿海,处于全国东部经济快速发展的地区,尤其是位于长三角和珠三角的连接处,全省经济发展拥有众多有利条件。但在长三角和珠三角的经济发展领跑全国经济的时候,福建在“十一五”之前的经济增长却步履姗姗,与周边地区形成了明显差距。通过全省多年的坚持和努力,2006年国家“十一五”规划明确指出支持海峡西岸经济区发展,2009年海西战略由地方战略全面升级为国家战略。这为以福建为主体的海峡西岸经济区建设的全面推进提供有力支持和保障。

  在2006年以前,福建的GDP增速不及周边三省,最高增速为2004年的10.8%;而自2006年起,全省加快发展步伐,尤其在“十一五”期间,GDP增速上升一个台阶,年均增速提升至13.84%,较“十五”期间的10.76%高出3.08个百分点。在2006年以后,福建省的经济增速高于周边的浙江、江西和广东等省份,显示其强大的经济发展动力和巨大的增长空间。2011至2013年,全省GDP增速分别为12.30%、11.10%和11.00%,呈现下行走势,但依然处于较高位。地区经济经过多年的快速发展使得全省综合实力明显增强,全省人均GDP快速增长,在2010年福建仅为40025元/人,与广东的44736元/人,尚有一定的距离,但至2013年,两省的人均GDP差距已缩小至1000元/人,福建省大有迎头赶上之势。

图1:自“十一五”起,福建省GDP增速居周边各省之首 

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

1.2、多年来区域内的基建、房地产投资保持高位

  随着2009年海峡西岸经济区在全国发展大局中地区作用的提升,福建全省开始进入全面建设,经济一体化、投资贸易自由化、产业高级化、区域城镇化等发展目标清晰明确,由此促使全省加快固定资产投资,为实现未来经济的腾飞打下坚实基础。2010年全省固定资产投资增速为33.10%,一改2008和2009年投资增长乏力的态势。随后由于受国家宏观经济大环境的影响,福建全省的固定资产投资增速有所减缓,由2011年的27.80%下降至2013年的23.50%。2013年的固定资产投资增速为近四年来的新低,但依然整体表现较为稳健,且此增速居2013年华东各省之首,较周边的江西、浙江分别高出3.5和5.4个百分点。

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Correlation

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.

2024-11-08 17:41:17

According to China Cement Market Data Center, cement prices in central and southern China rose steadily this week, pushing up 30-50 yuan/ton in Guangxi, and some low-priced enterprises reported an increase of 70 yuan/ton. This week, cement prices in eastern Hubei have gradually fallen back to the level before the last round of rise, and cement prices in many places in Hunan continue to rise.

2024-11-08 17:23:08

The weather is fine, the demand has recovered slightly, and the price of concrete is stable.

2024-11-08 15:25:26

In October, with the gradual decline of the national temperature, the northern project came to an end, and there was a small-scale rush to work in some areas, while the southern construction activities increased, the demand warmed up, and the shipment volume increased slightly. On the supply side, a number of sand and gravel aggregate projects have been successfully put into operation, production capacity has been released rapidly, sand and gravel prices have stopped falling slightly, and have entered a narrow range of volatility.

2024-11-05 11:42:36

According to China Cement Market Data Center News, in the central and southern regions, this week, Guangdong Pearl River Delta and Hainan regions continue to push up the cement price by 30-60 yuan/ton, and the implementation will wait and see; Guangxi region is planning to push up the cement price by 30-50 yuan/ton. After the two lakes region experienced many times of pushing up, the price was temporarily stable this week.

2024-11-01 17:35:36

Prices in some parts of East China have been raised this week, but the overall price has been stable.

2024-11-01 15:14:55

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2024-11-01 01:06:33

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

Recently, the construction in the south is relatively active, the local market demand is warming up, coupled with the increasing pressure on the cost side, the market price trend is stable and small. From October 17 to October 23, the national concrete price index closed at 112.14 points, down 0.02% annually and 10.65% year-on-year.

2024-10-25 17:29:24

On the 23rd, some enterprises in Fujian again notified Xiamen, Zhangzhou and Longyan to raise the cement price by 10 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-10-23 13:45:24

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the demand in Sichuan and Chongqing in Southwest China has improved, and the cement price has been steadily promoted; the price increase in Yunnan and Guizhou may be blocked. It is understood that the fourth quarter of Yunnan plans to implement peak staggering production for 51-60 days, affected by the policy, the output of enterprises in the region has declined, and the inventory has declined slightly.

2024-10-18 17:38:28

According to the data center of China Cement Market, cement prices in many places in East China continue to rise, and prices in some areas show signs of falling, and the specific situation needs to be tracked. For example, cement prices in Jiangxi are basically stable this week. Since the 8th, all parts of Jiangxi have been notified to push up the cement price by 20-30 yuan/ton. At present, the market is generally in a stable state after the price increase, and the price has not fluctuated significantly.

2024-10-18 17:33:36

With the improvement of weather conditions, the domestic market demand has improved as a whole in the near future, but it is still difficult to reach the peak season level in previous years. Concrete enterprises mainly ship at stable prices, and there are still some downward adjustments. From October 10 to October 16, the national concrete price index closed at 112.16 points, down 0.59% annually and 10.64% year-on-year.

2024-10-18 17:28:46

Recently, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the Notice on Further Deepening the Reform of Environmental Impact Assessment (hereinafter referred to as the Notice). The Notice points out in the annex "Pilot Work Program for Optimizing Classified Management of Environmental Impact Assessment in Prefectures and Cities" that, taking into account the level of economic development and environmental management as a whole, Beijing, Hebei Province, Jilin Province, Fujian Province, Guangdong Province, Sichuan Province and Shaanxi Province respectively select 2 Typical prefecture-level cities (or districts of municipalities directly under the Central Government) carry out pilot work in the whole area. Among them, it is clearly mentioned in the "industry categories that can optimize the classification management of environmental impact assessment" that the environmental impact assessment of cement grinding stations should be cancelled.

2024-10-17 13:45:30

After the National Day, the domestic concrete market demand rebounded slightly, but the total amount is still relatively weak, concrete enterprises are mainly shipping at stable prices, and have not yet followed the rise of raw materials. From October 3 to October 9, the national concrete price index closed at 112.82 points, in line with the National Day holiday, with a year-on-year decline of 10.21%.

2024-10-12 17:25:54

The price of raw materials in East China has been pushed up, and the implementation is relatively positive. This week, the price of concrete is mainly stable..

2024-10-12 15:03:04

Industry insiders said that the merger and reorganization of the cement industry is the only way to transform and upgrade the industry and achieve high-quality development. At present, the problem of overcapacity in China's cement industry is prominent, which seriously affects the overall efficiency and sustainable development of the industry. Through mergers and reorganizations, we can effectively eliminate backward production capacity, optimize the industrial layout, improve industry concentration, and make room for the healthy development of the industry.

2024-09-29 14:32:32

Recently, the domestic market demand in some areas has improved slightly compared with the previous period, but the overall situation is still weaker than same period in history, and the price of concrete remains stable and weak. From September 19 to September 25, the national concrete price index closed at 112.82 points, down 0.10% annually and 10.45% year-on-year.

2024-09-27 17:57:56

At present, there are nine regional carbon emission trading markets and corresponding exchanges in China. These exchanges are located in different regions, covering a wide geographical range from north to south, aiming to promote the development of carbon emissions trading and green finance throughout the country.

2024-09-27 11:11:58

Recently, the local weather conditions in China are not good, the recovery of market demand is insufficient, the price of concrete is mainly stable, and the local pressure is falling. From September 12 to September 18, the national concrete price index closed at 112.93 points, down 0.21% annually and 10.83% year-on-year.

2024-09-20 17:55:34

Affected by typhoon weather, demand is weakening, and concrete prices are mainly stable.

2024-09-20 16:46:57

This article is selected from Song Zhiping's book "Reform Heart Road", which describes his motivation and effect of restructuring cement in those years, and has been published by China Cement Network. Recently, there has been a call for restructuring and mergers and acquisitions in the cement industry. Reviewing this old article may have the effect of reviewing the old and learning the new, encouraging the industry to promote a new round of restructuring, and solving the persistent problems of the industry.

2024-09-16 10:19:30

Recently, the domestic market demand has recovered slightly compared with the previous period, but the overall level is still significantly lower than same period in previous years, and the price of concrete before the Mid-Autumn Festival is mainly a smooth transition. From September 5th to September 11th, the national concrete price index closed at 113.17 points, and the ring ratio remained stable, with a year-on-year decline of 10.81%.

2024-09-14 19:27:38

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: The market demand in East China continues to be depressed, and the concrete price is weak and stable.

2024-09-14 13:54:51

Wanbei Cement "High Temperature and Low Dust SCR Dust and Nitrate Integration" project adopts the international advanced SCR denitrification technology, combines with the innovative technology of high temperature and low dust, and reduces the dust concentration to less than 10 mg/Nm ³ by setting a high temperature metal bag filter in front of the SCR reactor, which effectively solves the problem of high dust content in the flue gas at the end of the cement furnace. Clean gas enters the catalyst reaction layer to ensure that the catalyst operates in a high-temperature micro-dust state, thereby realizing the integrated continuous removal of dust and nitrate.

2024-09-08 16:24:20

Recently, the price of raw materials has shown an upward trend again, but due to the lack of new orders in the concrete market and the fierce competition among enterprises, the focus of transactions continues to decline steadily. From August 29 to September 4, the national concrete price index closed at 113.17 points, down 0.45% annually and 11.09% year-on-year.

2024-09-06 17:22:16

The price of raw materials in the Yangtze River Delta region of East China has been rising, and the price of concrete is weak and stable.

2024-09-06 12:01:33

Most regions in China are affected by capital factors, lack of construction increment downstream, no improvement in concrete market demand, and downward pressure on local quotations. From August 22 to August 28, the national concrete price index closed at 113.68 points, down 0.42% annually and 11.12% year-on-year.

2024-08-30 17:31:27

Relevant data show that the industry lost about 1.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with sales falling by 11%. Conch Cement: In the first half of the year, the Company achieved an operating income of RMB45.566 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 30.44%, and a net profit of RMB3.326 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 48.56%. Tapai Group: achieved operating income of RMB1.976 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31.17%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB226 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 53.43%. It is expected that with the arrival of the traditional peak season of cement sales, the demand side will be better in the second half of the year than in the first half, and the price side is expected to continue to repair.

2024-08-30 10:06:24

From a supply perspective. In 2024, the cement industry still showed a trend of "serious overcapacity". Although the expectation of environmental protection and low carbon still maintains the trend of "continuous overweight", "normalization of staggered peak production" and "carbon peak" have some constraints on the compression of cement supply in most regions, due to the overall weakening of market demand, the original production intensity of compressed cement has been difficult to reverse the current contradiction between supply and demand in a large scale, and the market. The effect of regulation and control on the supply side of superimposed peak staggering production is weakened, and the market competition is further intensified.

2024-08-28 11:34:46

Domestic high temperature rain weather has not yet subsided, downstream construction activity is still low, the concrete market is relatively flat, and the market price is stable. From August 15 to August 21, the national concrete price index closed at 114.16 points, down 0.28% annually and 11.40% year-on-year.

2024-08-23 17:35:52

Domestic construction conditions have not improved significantly, coupled with the small number of new key projects, the market demand is still relatively low, and the price of concrete has fallen more or risen less. From August 8 to August 14, the national concrete price index closed at 114.48 points, down 0.33% annually and 11.69% year-on-year.

2024-08-17 10:46:53

Demand is still weak, and concrete prices begin to decline.

2024-08-16 17:16:26

The domestic market continued to be controlled by the hot and rainy weather, the market demand was weak, the price of concrete continued to fall steadily, and the decline in Sichuan and Chongqing was relatively large. From August 1st to August 7th, the national concrete price index closed at 114.86 points, down 0.43% from the previous month.

2024-08-09 18:09:08

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of the rebound in cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region of central and southern Guangdong is not optimistic, and the Guangxi region is tepid. The market prices of the two lakes are basically stable, and there is a decline in some areas. Leading enterprises in Guangdong try to restore the price of cement, but under the influence of high temperature weather, the actual effect is not good. The rain weather in Guangxi is decreasing, the market demand is limited, the price is stable, and the local market is falling. Cement prices in Hubei are stable, and high temperatures affect demand. The Hunan area continues the high temperature, the demand is weak, the partial price falls. Affected by rainfall, the market demand in Henan is not good, and the price is stable.

2024-08-09 17:12:17

Due to the continuous high temperature weather in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the demand of construction industry has weakened, resulting in a general decline in cement sales, and the price of cement in some areas has dropped by 20-35 yuan/ton, among which Yangzhou, Taizhou, Huaian, Nanjing, Zhenjiang and other places in Jiangsu have been greatly affected. Due to the high temperature weather in Anhui, the construction site slowed down, the demand was weak, and the cement price in Ma'anshan, Chuzhou, Hefei and other areas was reduced by 10-20 yuan/ton. Cement prices in Zaozhuang, Linyi, Jining, Tai'an and other places fell by 10-30 yuan/ton due to cloudy weather and the resumption of clinker production in Shandong.

2024-08-09 16:18:24

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.