2014年水泥行业盈利水平有望回高点

2014-01-16 08:05:01

截至1月15日,19家水泥上市公司中有10家公布了2013年业绩预告。剔除ST狮头因本部水泥生产线搬迁停产而业绩亏损,以及四川双马因出售子公司股权而业绩大增外,其他8家中有6家业绩预增。

  在化解水泥产能过剩及环境治理的双重压力下,水泥行业的利润反倒大幅提升。

  截至1月15日,19家水泥上市公司中有10家公布了2013年业绩预告。剔除ST狮头因本部水泥生产线搬迁停产而业绩亏损,以及四川双马因出售子公司股权而业绩大增外,其他8家中有6家业绩预增。

  最新数据显示,整个水泥行业2013年前10个月已经实现利润533亿元,同比增长约21.5%,远远高于上年同期水平,全年实现利润将超过800亿元,有望创历史第二高水平。(2011年,水泥行业利润总额超过1000亿元);此外,预计2013年全年水泥投资1300亿元,连续3年下降。

  记者获悉,瑞银证券建筑材料行业分析师密叶舟也在前天举行的瑞银大中华研讨会上预测,水泥行业的盈利水平将在2014年进一步提高,可能会再回到2011年的历史高点。

  2013年下半年行业升温

  2013年进入下半年,水泥市场出现升温。密叶舟认为,这得益于两个因素:一是新增产能减少的同时还有一部分落后产能淘汰;二是行业整合后集中度提高,由此避免了一些非理性竞争。

  据了解,国务院在2013年10月15日发布 《关于化解产能严重过剩矛盾的指导意见》(以下简称 《意见》),将水泥列为严重产能过剩的行业之一。《意见》要求提前一年完成“十二五”水泥等重点行业淘汰落后产能目标任务,2015年底前再淘汰水泥(熟料及粉磨能力)1亿吨。

  在系列化解产能过剩的政策及措施下,2013年水泥投资进一步下滑。中国水泥协会统计的数据显示,前11月全国水泥投资累计完成1199亿元,同比下降4.63%,预计全年投资1300亿元。这是自2011年的大幅下滑后,水泥投资连续3年下降。

  与此同时,煤炭的价格2013年出现下跌。“也就是说水泥行业最主要的成本端在下降,价格又在上涨,所以说利润率明显上升。”密叶舟在上述会议上说。

  2014年盈利水平有望回高点

  报告显示,2014年水泥需求总体将保持温和增长态势,在不考虑水泥新标准实施的情况下,产量继续增长6%~7%,行业利润仍维持较高水平。

  作出上述预测基于3个方面的考虑:一是基础设施和新型城镇化建设将成为未来拉动水泥需求的主要动力;二是产能过剩将逐渐化解,供需关系有望进一步改善;三是环保标准更加严格,淘汰落后产能加快。

  据密叶舟透露,2014年6月30日之前将会出台新的水泥标准文件,即取消32.5复合水泥产品标准,用42.5复合水泥产品标准替代。他预计,水泥行业的盈利水平将在2014年进一步提高,可能会再回到2011年的历史高点。

  中国建材规划研究院水泥产业研究咨询部主任高智对记者说,取消32.5复合水泥产品标准利于提升整个产品质量,保证建筑物的质量;而且通过降低32.5水泥的使用量,可以使水泥产量大幅度降低。

  密叶舟预计,用42.5复合水泥产品标准替代32.5复合水泥产品标准后,可能会给熟料的需求带来10%的增量,“这个行业(熟料)产能过剩的情况基本被瓦解”。

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Correlation

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the overall market demand in Northwest China has declined, some kilns have been shut down, and most prices are stable. For example, the cement market demand in Gansu is weak at present, especially in Lanzhou and its surrounding areas, the inventory of some manufacturers is not high.

2024-11-08 17:27:44

Asia Cement said in the third quarter report that looking forward to the fourth quarter, the demand for cement will pick up to a certain extent. With the support of increasing peak staggering efforts, the contradiction between supply and demand of cement will be alleviated in stages. It is expected that the results of the increase in cement prices in the third quarter will be maintained until the end of the year, and the benefits of cement enterprises are expected to usher in marginal improvement.

2024-11-06 10:05:59

From the recent market situation, the overall cement industry in the fourth quarter has a better expectation, the company has certain advantages in cost control and other aspects, will better benefit from the current round of price recovery and the impact of the rising boom stage.

2024-11-05 11:03:06

In the era of shortage, the ratio of volume, cost and profit to price is effective, because we can make profits by selling more and reducing the cost, but in the era of surplus, if the volume does not go up, the price reduction may not be able to sell more, so it is better to sell more at the price, that is, to stabilize the price, guarantee the quantity and reduce the cost, even if it is reduced appropriately, we should also stabilize the price, because even if we sell 20% less, it will only affect the profit by 15%. It may affect profits by 60%. When price and sales volume can not be achieved at the same time, first of all, we should ensure a reasonable profit, find the best balance between price and sales volume, and blindly sacrifice price to increase sales volume is not feasible.

2024-11-05 10:05:30

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places in Yunnan in southwest China has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Liangshan and Panzhihua in Sichuan have also begun to push up by 50 yuan/ton. In Guizhou, some major manufacturers in Qiannan, Qianxinan, Zunyi, Tongren and other regions have recently raised the cement price by 10-40 yuan/ton, while the quotation in other regions has been stable for the time being.

2024-11-01 17:32:29

At the meeting, Yan Haochun brought the theme report "Dream of Blue Sky: Exploring the Green Footprint of Cement Industry in the Context of Carbon Market". She pointed out that the cement industry faced the risk of rising costs in the context of the carbon market.

2024-11-01 16:10:56

The incorporation of the cement industry into the national carbon market will have a significant impact on cement enterprises in terms of production and operation, data control, transaction costs, energy saving and carbon reduction investment. With the carbon quota from basic satisfaction to tight reduction, it will effectively promote production reduction, thereby affecting competitiveness and supply and demand pattern.

2024-11-01 09:52:46

Since the end of the third quarter, the price of cement products in East China has risen, and the prosperity of building materials has recovered. With its strong competitive efficiency advantage, Shangfeng is expected to take the lead in benefiting, while its unique new economy equity investment business will further help the company maintain steady growth in performance with the upward cycle of semiconductor, new materials and other technology industries.

2024-10-29 20:15:23

Since October, the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market has been relatively stable and has not risen yet. At present, the 4600t/d production line of the local cement industry has been ignited recently, which is expected to have a certain impact on the eastern Guangdong market in the short term. However, the increase in the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta and Fujian can lay a certain foundation for the increase in the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market.

2024-10-29 09:40:30

Recently, a number of cement companies have released three quarter performance reports. In the first three quarters, due to the continuous decline in cement demand and intensified competition, their performance declined in varying degrees, and some enterprises suffered serious losses.

2024-10-29 09:26:00

The reason for the change in performance was that the sales volume and price of cement, the main product, declined year-on-year, and the decline in unit cost failed to compensate for the adverse impact of the price decline, resulting in a year-on-year decline in profit indicators.

2024-10-25 10:58:33

Tapai said that from January to September 2024, due to the continuous decline in cement demand and intensified competition, the company's cement sales price fell by 18.27% year-on-year, and the cost of cement sales fell by 11.96% year-on-year due to the decline in the purchase price of raw materials such as coal and labor costs. As a result, the profitability of the main cement industry declined year-on-year. Affected by the rising stock index at the end of the quarter, the fair value change income of the securities investment held by the company increased, which increased the performance and slowed down the decline of the company's performance.

2024-10-25 10:56:53

On October 25, the "2024 China Cement Double Carbon Conference and the 12th Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference" continued brilliantly. Gao Dengbang, President of China Cement Association, Zhu Shengli, General Manager of Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd., Lv Zhijian, President of Xinjiang Building Material Industry Association, Ma Weiping, Chairman of OCC, Jiang Dehong, Vice President and Chief Engineer of Tianshan Material Co., Ltd., Li Jian, Associate Researcher of China Academy of Environmental Sciences, and Fan Yueming, Professor of South China University of Technology. Zhuge Wenda, Chairman of Hubei Century Xinfeng Leishan Cement Co., Ltd., Yan Haochun, Technical Director of China National Inspection and Testing Holding Group and General Manager of Certification and Evaluation Center, China Architecture

2024-10-25 10:53:14

On the evening of October 18, Asia Cement (China) announced that it expected the Group's unaudited loss attributable to equity holders (net profit attributable to parent company) for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 to be approximately RMB459 million.

2024-10-21 10:08:37

Recently, Jinghe Integration announced its performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2024, which is expected to achieve business income of 6.7 billion yuan to 6.8 billion yuan, an increase of 33.55% to 35.54% over the same period last year. The net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company is expected to be 270 million yuan to 300 million yuan, a substantial increase of 240 million yuan to 270 million yuan, an increase of 744.01% to 837.79%.

2024-10-18 10:53:49

The above expected decrease is mainly attributable to the decrease in the selling prices of the Group's major products, namely cement, ready-mixed concrete and glass fibre, the decrease in the sales volume of cement, and the decrease in the share of results of associates, but partially offset by the decrease in the cost of sales of cement and ready-mixed concrete, and the decrease in the net loss from the change in the fair value of the Group's financial assets at fair value through profit or loss.

2024-10-16 10:12:19

According to the China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in Lanzhou-Baiyin area of Gansu Province has risen by 10 yuan/ton; the prices in Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Shaanxi are stable. Affected by the big drop in temperature, rain and snow before the festival, the market demand in Qinghai has declined significantly. As the weather cleared up, cement sales in the region rebounded, and the market showed signs of warming up.

2024-10-12 17:29:56

However, it should be noted that brand promotion is not achieved overnight, but requires years or even decades of efforts. Our primary service offering is pricing strategies for large and mid-sized businesses to improve margins and achieve growth. The profit is equal to the price times the sales volume minus the cost. According to our research, there is a tenfold relationship between pricing and profit, while there is only a sixfold relationship between cost and sales volume, because when sales volume increases, the corresponding cost will also rise. We support Chinese enterprises to improve their profits, because only profits are the key to the survival of enterprises.

2024-10-12 13:16:50

Tapai Group said in the semi-annual report of 2024 that in the first half of this year, in order to effectively cope with the extremely severe market situation and the increasingly fierce competitive environment, the company continued to promote the work of reducing costs and increasing efficiency, continue to streamline the organization and optimize personnel, continuously improve labor productivity, continue to clear inefficient production capacity and shut down low-quality enterprises Jinta Cement, continue to slim down and strengthen the body, reduce the burden and go into battle lightly.

2024-10-12 09:57:52

Heidelberg Materials entered the Indian market in 2006 through a number of acquisitions. It currently operates four cement plants in India with a capacity of 12.5 million tonnes. Indian cement plants accounted for 7% of the total capacity of the building materials company last year, which also produces sand, gravel and additives such as concrete. In the cement industry, Heidelberg Materials ranks fourth in the world, behind two Chinese manufacturers (Conch Cement and CNBM) and the Holcim Group of Switzerland.

2024-10-11 09:12:31

Tianrui Cement said that as the financial information of major associates has not yet been determined, more time is needed to prepare the interim results, so the company will delay the publication of the interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2024.

2024-10-10 10:36:24

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong in the central and southern regions is general, while the Guangxi region is stable and declining. Eastern Hubei and other regions plan to push up the price of cement by 30 yuan/ton again. Driven by the price increase in eastern Hubei, individual market prices in Hunan have been notified to rise again.

2024-09-27 16:48:15

From January to August 2024, facing the severe and complicated economic situation and the deteriorating industry ecology, China United Cement, under the strong leadership of China Building Materials and Tianshan Materials, strives hard, advances bravely, repairs both inside and outside, pays attention to the ecological construction of the industry, improves the internal management, deepens the cost control continuously, and optimizes the regional layout. The effect of centralized procurement cost reduction is prominent, the work of Party building and discipline inspection is solid and orderly, and the situation of safety and environmental protection remains stable. However, the operating results are still lower than expected.

2024-09-25 10:42:59

As of September 2024, the proportion of healthy enterprises in the ready-mixed concrete industry has decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 92.9% compared with 2022; the proportion of dishonest enterprises has increased from 5.0% to 6.1%; the proportion of bankruptcy reorganization enterprises has increased from 0.8% to 1.0%..

2024-09-25 09:21:01

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, cement prices in the Pearl River Delta market in central and southern Guangdong are planned to stop falling and rise again, while prices in individual markets in Guangxi have experienced a second round of decline. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, the range of price increases in the two lakes areas has been extended to the whole province, pushing up by about 30 yuan/ton. Since the 10th, some major manufacturers in Henan have pushed up the price of cement by 30 yuan/ton, but the actual implementation is not ideal, some enterprises have not implemented in place, and the quotation remains at the level before the rise.

2024-09-20 17:10:16

Tianfeng Securities Research Report shows that with the arrival of the peak season in September, the progress of special bonds and special bonds at the infrastructure end has been accelerated and major local projects have been started, and the demand for cement is expected to pick up. Recently, the cement shipment data continued to recover, and the price side also rose synchronously. At present, most cement enterprises are still in a state of loss. With the strengthening of industry supply self-discipline, the superimposed demand is expected to improve marginally, and the industry profit center is expected to be lifted.

2024-09-19 10:18:37

This article is selected from Song Zhiping's book "Reform Heart Road", which describes his motivation and effect of restructuring cement in those years, and has been published by China Cement Network. Recently, there has been a call for restructuring and mergers and acquisitions in the cement industry. Reviewing this old article may have the effect of reviewing the old and learning the new, encouraging the industry to promote a new round of restructuring, and solving the persistent problems of the industry.

2024-09-16 10:19:30

Faced with the adverse effects of the deep adjustment of real estate and the slowdown of infrastructure investment, the company will adhere to the principle of "market, resources and returns" and enhance market control to promote high-quality M & a projects in areas with low industry concentration and blank markets.

2024-09-13 15:27:16

The environmental protection planning of Tapai Group mainly includes: promoting the construction of the 300,000 tons/year general solid waste resource comprehensive utilization project of Jiaoling Branch, which has been reviewed and approved by the eighth meeting of the fifth board of directors; the company plans each Alternative fuel projects will be built in the clinker production line of 5000t/d, with the goal of replacing 30% of coal consumption and reducing the total energy consumption.

2024-09-13 11:39:14

In view of the problems of declining profits of cement enterprises hindering green transformation and narrowing the space for energy saving and carbon reduction, Ye Jiayuan proposed that cement enterprises should not forget to innovate no matter how difficult it is. Innovation should not only be limited to low-carbon areas, but also open up ideas and plan digital upgrading and intelligent transformation as early as possible according to their own conditions. In the implementation of digital and intelligent transformation, it should be linked with low-carbon as far as possible. If digital intelligence leaves the foothold of low carbon, digital intelligence is likely to be hollow, and it is likely to become a castle in the air, which is not useful, but a burden for enterprises.

2024-09-05 11:04:53

In the first half of 2024, Huaxin Cement achieved good results overseas. Huaxin said that the improvement of aggregate and overseas cement sales and performance has become an important support for stabilizing the company's performance. It is understood that overseas development is one of the four major development strategies of Huaxin Cement. In the second half of the year, Huaxin said it would be aggressive and further expand its overseas market. Li Yeqing said that in the future, Huaxin Cement may have production lines in 25 or more countries.

2024-09-04 10:31:12

However, in the semi-annual reports issued by major cement listed companies, despite the sharp decline in profits of the cement sector, the development of the aggregate sector is still steady. China Cement Network data show that in the first half of 2024, the demand for aggregate for concrete fell 10.8% year-on-year, with a total demand of 6.25 billion tons, dragged down by both downstream infrastructure and real estate. Therefore, how long the aggregate can support cement enterprises is indeed a pessimistic unknown.

2024-09-04 09:39:36

From the overall situation, in the first half of 2024, the overall operating situation of the cement industry was grim, and the profits of cement enterprises basically declined sharply, and even some enterprises suffered huge losses. In terms of the operation and management of Conch Cement, the Group will pay close attention to the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad, and continue to improve the quality and efficiency of its operation in line with the guidance of national policies. Huaxin Cement said that it demonstrated the sense of responsibility of large enterprises and actively promoted and implemented new supply-side structural reform programs and measures suitable for the high-quality development of the industry.

2024-09-03 09:43:58

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.