in Shahe, there was nothing new under the sun. Processing plants have few new orders and do not stock the original sheets; the sales volume of small plates is better than that of large plates, and the cost of glass production has fallen due to the fall of coal. Manufacturers estimate that they will make up for the fall. Let's talk about soda ash
today. In terms of supply, Alxa trona is a knife hanging over the head of soda ash. According to the feedback from people from all walks of life, it is estimated that the boiler will be ignited in May, one boiler will be ignited every 15 days in June, and the ignition will be completed in the middle and late June. The product can be produced in June. If it is fast, the product can be bought in late June, and the first phase will reach the production capacity by the end of the year. However, the trona process is more complicated than combined alkali, and the large project of 5 million tons inevitably has some bumps, so the market psychology is somewhat backward on the production date. The cost is much lower than that of synthetic alkali, but the glass factory will not change to trona at once, there will be a trial and running-in period, and ultimately it depends on the price.
Putting aside the uncertainty of production, we only look at the 05 contract with little supply impact. From the point of view of the balance sheet, it is difficult to have a significant surplus of soda ash before the end of the maintenance season in September, which is not a big difference. Exports are expected to decrease somewhat this year; light alkali is relatively weak, but it is expected to be good. There are only two ways to reverse the tight balance pattern in 2005, one is to compress the raw material inventory of the glass factory, and the other is the large-scale cold repair of the glass factory.
According to the situation of glass factories in Shahe area, the stock of raw materials is not high. Asked two, the soda ash inventory in the factory is less than 20 days, some factory inventory has fallen below the safe number of days. From Qinghai to Shahe, including short dumping, it is estimated that it will take ten days on the way, and glass is a continuous production enterprise, so the risk of further inventory reduction is too great. It takes longer for enterprises in South China to transport soda ash, and the author guesses that the willingness to compress inventory is also very low. In terms of
cold repair, although the natural gas production line has been in a loss, there have been rumors of cold repair of individual production lines recently. But generally speaking, enterprises in Shahe area have a strong willingness to produce. Because of environmental protection and other regional particularities, Shahe coal-to-gas production line needs to be rebuilt into a natural gas production line after cold repair before it can be ignited again. On the one hand, the procedures for environmental impact assessment need to be redone, which takes more than a year; on the other hand, it is relatively expensive to replace the fuel system, and there are different opinions about the exact amount, but the cold repair itself costs NT 50 million; and on the other hand, the production cost of using natural gas is even higher. To see the large-scale cold repair of Shahe, it is estimated that if an enterprise goes bankrupt, the most likely first to be squeezed out is still the production capacity of South China. However, the peak season is coming, the demand is still in the verification stage, and it is still doubtful whether large-scale cold repair can be realized in 2005. Even if the demand of 05 is falsified, the glass factory will consider whether the demand is just late and whether the last peak season will be reflected in the 09 contract. At that time, cold repair is still not an easy decision.
In this way, the pattern of the 05 contract is difficult to reverse, and the possible opportunities for bears are still in the forward contract. But assuming that the demand for glass is completely falsified, large-scale cold repair is imminent, glass is still accumulating, and it is entirely possible to complete a wave of empty possibilities before the delivery month, and then repair the discount depending on the situation. In other words, for friends who have no confidence in glass demand, the soda ash 05 contract with a smaller discount does have some attraction.
浙公网安备33010802003254号