Traders' shipments are improving. Traders who visited
today said that dozens of packages were sold a few days ago, and there were about 200 packages in these two days. Shipment is increasing day by day, and it is expected to return to the normal level of 400 packages in two days. The normal inventory is generally two or three thousand bags, and now it is higher, about five thousand bags.
Downstream resumption of work is obviously late this year. In previous years, the sixth and eighth day of the first lunar month, and the tenth day of the first lunar month at the latest, the work started. Only after the Glutinous Rice Balls for Lantern Festival this year did it improve. Consistent with yesterday's information, the downstream differentiation is more serious. The performance of large boards and Low-e corresponding to architectural glass is relatively weak, while the small boards for mirror making and home decoration are acceptable. Architectural glass is estimated to account for 78%. Some of the goods are sold to secondary dealers, which means that the inventory has been transferred further downstream without being consumed, which is worse than we expected. One of the reasons for the late
resumption of work is that I stayed at home for a long time during the Spring Festival this year, and the other is still the platitudinous problem of funds. Traders are basically settled in cash, and those who have a good relationship can owe some, so there is no problem with the repayment last year. Processing plants are estimated to be only 23%, very cautious in receiving orders, almost no inventory, which should be a common phenomenon throughout the country. These two reasons led to the slow start of demand this year, so there was an abnormal price reduction at the beginning of the year. At present, new orders are few, less than same period last year, and it is estimated that it will take another month to recover. March is the time when glass orders are in short supply, and there may be a concentrated release of demand in April and May.
Due to environmental problems, Shahe has stopped production and cold repair in recent years, and its production capacity has been transferred to Yunnan, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, Shanxi, Shijiazhuang and other places. In fact, its own production capacity accounts for less than 10%. But because the logistics is cheap, it is an important glass distribution center in the country, so it plays an important role in the pricing of glass. The natural gas production line is still losing money, but the boss of Shahe is more resilient, and the capital situation is still very healthy at present. So on the bad side, the rigidity of glass supply is still very strong, and on the worse side, the price still has downward space. In terms of
traders, the overall profitability was not good last year, and the insured price of manufacturers was better, but some manufacturers only paid one third of the insured price. Years ago, the average cost of taking goods was around 1500 for small boards and 1550 for large boards. The cost of taking goods for traders and the production cost of glass factories may support the disk. After the year, the overall inventory has gone to 34%, the differentiation is more severe, the spot ex-factory price has recently shown signs of loosening, and the profit window for traders has been reopened. The dealer of a certain factory has a stock of 20% or 30%. In the afternoon, after the ex-factory price of the platelet drops, it is estimated that it can be replenished to 78%. Today, the production and sales of the factory can reach 200% -300%. Another factory dealer inventory 56%, after today's ex-factory price drop, also made up some. The inventory of a large dealer is still high, and the ex-factory price is estimated to fall sharply tomorrow. However, the replenishment and shipment of traders can only cause short-term fluctuations, and the real trend is still the strength of real demand.
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