September, Heilongjiang cement prices generally rose by 30-40 yuan/ton. Some insiders said that the current large projects are catching up with the construction period, the demand for cement is slightly boosted, and the price of cement is basically stable at present; but after the completion of the construction period, the demand will decline to a greater extent, and the price will be unknown.
It can be seen that the increase in demand is a short-term change affected by a special period of time, and the "golden nine and silver ten" cannot be regarded as a long-term expectation, and insufficient demand will remain the norm; in the case of national overcapacity, Heilongjiang naturally cannot avoid vulgarity. In the foreseeable future, the cement industry in Heilongjiang and even the whole northeast may become more and more difficult.
First, the contradiction between production and demand is serious.
For example, the 2022 Top 100 List of China's Cement Clinker Production Capacity shows that Heilongjiang's clinker production capacity is 20.119 million tons. According to 1.3 tons of cement from 1 ton of clinker, assuming that the clinker production capacity of Heilongjiang is fully activated, 20.119 million tons of clinker can be ground into more than 26 million tons of cement, while the annual demand for cement in Heilongjiang should be only about 178 million tons, which is nearly 10 million tons. Of course, the contradiction between production and demand is not unique to Heilongjiang or Northeast China, but a nationwide universal problem.
In order to cope with the dilemma of the contradiction between production and demand, peak staggering production has played a significant role in the past few years, but this is based on the relative stability or even growth of annual demand in the past few years, and the current effect of peak staggering production is far less than that in the past; Moreover, off-peak production also gives many backward production capacity that should have been eliminated "breathing space", and some backward production capacity is "reincarnated" through capacity replacement, which further intensifies the current contradiction between production and demand.
Second, the negative population growth has increased the downward pressure on demand.
All investment and construction should be based on people, and there is no value of investment and construction in a region without people. As an old industrial area, Northeast China is in a net outflow of population due to its single industrial structure and environmental pollution.
According to the seventh census data, in 2020, the total population of the three northeastern provinces was more than 98 million, about 11000000 less than ten years ago, and the negative growth rate was significantly faster than national average. With the decline of the total population, the accompanying problems such as the slowdown of urbanization, the acceleration of population aging and the decline of the birth rate also lead to the obvious lack of stamina for economic development.
For example, Hegang, which is famous for its low housing prices, has a small population, poor environment and insufficient demand. The house is "cheap as cabbage", and the demand for cement supported by real estate is "powerless". Moreover, the infrastructure construction in Northeast China over the past decade can be called "living beyond one's means". Most of the transportation projects such as high-speed rail, highway and airport have been relatively complete, and there is little room for the follow-up development of infrastructure construction. Real estate and infrastructure both "pull the brake", and the future demand for cement in Northeast China is hard to say optimistic.
Third, it is no match for the siphon effect of big cities and economically developed areas. In
September, Tianjin, Nanjing, Qingdao, Suzhou, Xiamen, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Xi'an and other cities have cancelled or adjusted and relaxed the original housing purchase restriction policy. Nanjing, Wuhan, Jinan, Hefei and other cities have completely cancelled the purchase restriction policy, which are basically second-tier cities with strong strength. And it can be predicted that the trend of loosening purchase restrictions will be further expanded.
In the past, due to the existence of purchase restrictions and the low value of real estate in cities with low development level, the demand for investment and improvement of housing purchase of residents with better economic strength in some third-and fourth-tier cities could not be met; With the gradual liberalization of purchase restrictions, second-tier cities with substantial investment value will naturally become "fragrant baboons" for residents from other places to buy houses.
In addition, when the choice of consumption expands, the location of housing becomes a more critical factor. Second-tier cities with more education and medical resources than third-tier and fourth-tier cities have more employment opportunities and broader development prospects, which are more attractive to talents. After the relaxation of purchase restrictions, migrant workers in second-tier cities are more likely to live locally, and their offspring may receive a higher level of education, which will further accelerate the flow of population from relatively backward areas to developed areas.
The weaker the weaker, the stronger the stronger. Northeast China, especially Heilongjiang and Jilin, will be more difficult to resist the siphon effect of strong second-tier cities, and the flow of population to the eastern coastal areas with strong momentum of development is basically an inevitable trend. The real estate market in second-tier cities will also be boosted due to the generation of new demand, thereby supporting the demand for cement; the construction demand for urban renewal and development will be more concentrated in economically developed areas, and the demand for cement in economically developed areas will be more stable in the future due to the siphon effect.
On the contrary, in Northeast China, the problems of population loss and limited momentum of economic growth can not be solved, and the cement market may only be "declining". As mentioned above, "all investment and construction should be based on people, and there is no value of investment and construction in a region without people". Although the production capacity of Northeast China is not large in the whole country, the small market is facing the situation of continuing to shrink, and it may be difficult to continue to accommodate all the current production capacity. At this moment, the cement enterprises in
Northeast China should actively transform and seek profitable businesses other than cement; or continue to save energy, reduce costs, increase efficiency and improve quality, "kill out" in the cruel industry shuffle, and finally gain a firm foothold. For most small and medium-sized enterprises, selling factories and withdrawing may be a better choice. However, in the current situation of poor market, who is willing to take over?
However, the future of the Northeast is not confused. In September this year, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, President of the State and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, visited Heilongjiang Province and stressed that we should firmly grasp the strategic orientation in the overall situation of national development, grasp the primary task of promoting high-quality development, implement the decision-making plan of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on promoting the overall revitalization of Northeast China, make full use of its strengths and make up for its weaknesses. We will transform the advantages of resources, ecology, scientific research, industry and location into new momentum and new advantages for development, and strive to create a new situation of high-quality development. With the attention of the Party Central Committee and the government, the transformation process of Northeast China will be accelerated, and it will eventually get rid of the "mud" and realize industrial revitalization. At that time, the cement market in Northeast China may also be full of vitality again.
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