Perc production capacity will be gradually cleared with the acceleration of TOPCon penetration. By the end of 2023, the monthly production schedule of TOPCon is expected to reach 25 GW, and the monthly penetration rate is nearly 40% -50% . With the introduction of TOPCon laser sintering, 0BB, double-sided poly and other technologies into the production line, the advantages of leading enterprises in technology are expected to continue.
Other routes have more room to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and industrialization is expected to reverse. Among them, HJT silver-clad copper (30%), 0BB, copper electroplating and other technologies are expected to accelerate the introduction into larger-scale mass production; XBC is moving from 1 to 10, with large differences among routes and large space for cost reduction. With the continuous increase of shipment scale, the production line data is expected to be more stable; the perovskite GW production line will soon be completed and put into operation, and the efficiency of tandem batteries will continue to break through.
At the same time, it is estimated that in 2023-2026, the new installed capacity in the world will be 420/500/600/696GW respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 83%/19%/20%/28%. The newly installed capacity in China is 186/229/274/300 GW respectively.
polysilicon, the agency believes that the annual output in 2024 will increase by 32% to 2 million tons, which is 1 of the terminal demand.
Due to the sharp decline in profit margins, a large number of new production capacity has been postponed or cancelled. It is expected that the new capacity will be significantly reduced in the second half of 2024, and the profit margin of the industry will gradually rise from the bottom.
In the research report, Bank of Communications International predicts that the new installed capacity in the world will still increase by 22% to 440GW in 2024, of which 210/230 GW in China/overseas, an increase of 14%/31% over the same period last year. Among them, the domestic centralized installed capacity will further increase by 20% to 110 GW, the industrial and commercial distributed installed capacity will increase by 15% to 55 GW, and the household installed capacity will be basically the same as in 2023, which is about 45 GW.
household use, the first is the high interest rate. At present, the federal funds rate in the United States is 5. The second is the policy adjustment in California. California, the largest state of household photovoltaics in the United States, has landed in NEM3.
Guojin Securities: The probability of long-term and highly homogeneous malignant overcapacity has been significantly reduced
. The actual landing situation of the planned capacity in 2024 is highly uncertain , and the actual supply capacity of silicon materials and other links will be significantly lower than nominal capacity, while the battery link is a typical technological iteration. The probability of long-term and highly homogeneous malignant overcapacity in the industry is declining significantly. In terms of
polysilicon, it is predicted that the demand for photovoltaic modules in 2024 will be 650-700 GW, the demand for silicon materials will be about 1.6 million tons according to the silicon consumption of 2.4g/W, and the domestic demand for silicon materials will be about 1.45 million tons after deducting overseas silicon materials. The corresponding cash cost is about 4.
It is estimated that the "rational bottom range" of silicon material price is the tax-inclusive price of dense material 5.5-6.
The cost curve of silicon material link (based on the production capacity at the end of 23 years, Industrial silicon price 1.
Considering that the capacity price helps to enhance the enthusiasm of thermal power to participate in power dispatching, it is the basis of future electricity market transactions and helps to significantly improve the bottleneck problem of consumption.
Therefore, Haitong International believes that under the dual stimulation of cost reduction and absorption improvement , domestic photovoltaic demand is expected to continue to grow in 2024, and we expect domestic photovoltaic installed capacity to reach 210 GW in 2024. Year-on-year growth of 10.
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