On December 7, the photovoltaic sector of Hong Kong stocks fell collectively. As of yesterday's closing, Xinyi Solar Energy and Flat Energy fell by more than 4%, Xiexin Technology fell by 3.6%, and Xinte Energy fell by 1.
This week, the price of photovoltaic main industry chain products continued to decline .
On December 8, Silicon Industry Distribution announced the latest transaction price of silicon wafers this week, and the average transaction price of P-type M10 monocrystalline silicon wafers dropped to 2.14 yuan per wafer , with a ring-to-ring fluctuation of -5
. The rapid increase in the proportion of downstream N-type silicon wafers is the main reason for the increase in the shipping pressure of P-type M10. However, from the price point of view, even if N-type shipments continue to rise, its price is still declining. This week, the price of N-type monocrystalline silicon wafers reached 2.30 yuan/piece, with a week-on-week decline of 1. At the same time, due to the impact of inventory backlog, the price of silicon wafers is difficult to maintain, and it is not known when it will stop falling.
Data source: Silicon Branch, Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
From the supply point of view, China's polysilicon production in November was about 157000 tons, an increase of 14. This month, stimulated by the increase in the level of crystal pulling and the increase in the demand for catalytic materials, it is expected that the new output of silicon materials in that month will be about 67 GW-68 GW , an increase of 6%-7% compared with the previous month.
At the same time, the agency also pointed out that in the current supply structure of silicon materials, the supply scale of high-quality silicon materials (that is, materials that can meet the demand for N-type crystal pulling) has not increased significantly in the proportion of the supply structure, which is also in line with the statements of the Silicon Industry Branch, Jibang Consulting and other agencies, and the supply scale of high-quality silicon materials has not increased significantly. The price of N-type silicon materials will be relatively strong .
But this does not mean that the price of N-type silicon wafers has stopped falling. InfoLink pointed out in this week's market analysis that due to the impact of downstream cell production reduction, P-type M10 silicon wafers are still likely to fall in price, which leads to the development of N-type price trend. Jibang Consulting also expressed a similar view that 210P (P-type M10) fell rapidly due to the end of the delivery period, while N-type 182 was difficult to stabilize due to the exhaustion of downstream demand.
From the inventory point of view, the current silicon wafer inventory level is about 1.3-1.5 billion pieces, but with the recent increase in the start-up rate of many manufacturers, the start-up rate of integrated enterprises has increased to 85% -100%, and the start-up rate of other enterprises has increased to 80% -100%. Wafer inventories are expected to rise again this month.
P type G12 in this week's transaction price According to InfoLink data, the price of P-type G12 cells has reached 0.
The agency believes that at the end of recent years, after the collection of large-scale domestic orders, supply and demand returned to the normal range, resulting in G12 cells falling to a reasonable range within a week.
Generally speaking, with the accelerated replacement of P/N, the loss situation of P-type production line will continue to intensify until production is stopped. On
the N-type side, with the increase of the proportion of downstream N-type component shipments, the output of N-type batteries has reached 50%-55%, and the demand has supported the price of batteries. This week's average price is 0.48 yuan/W-0.
This week's most influential component end is the second photovoltaic module collection bid opening of China Nuclear Huineng from 2023 to 2024, which has not been maintained for one day. It was immediately refreshed to 0 in the bid opening of Poly Xin 40MW P-type modules on that day. It was less than two months since the module quotation fell below 1 yuan/W on October 18, and the rate of decline was far faster than expected.
This week, component prices are still chaotic, and prices continue to decline.According to InfoLink data, the transaction price of 182mm monocrystalline single-sided PERC modules has reached 1 yuan/W, and the price of newly signed orders is close to 0.92 yuan/W-0.93 yuan/W, even a small amount of 0.
Near the end of the year, after the end of the order, the demand has entered the off-season, and the operating rate of module enterprises is declining. At present, the monthly production schedule of domestic components is only about 50GW, and the shipment is relatively low . With the overstock in the European market, the related manufacturers are under great pressure to ship, and the trend of active production reduction and price reduction will be maintained for some time.
In the context of the crazy "involution" of the domestic market, the overseas market, which is highly expected by component manufacturers, is also hard to say optimistic.
On November 25, the Turkish Ministry of Trade announced that it would launch an anti-circumvention investigation into the anti-dumping case of photovoltaic modules originating in China. Before that, the debate within the EU on whether to launch another tariff investigation on imported components was in full swing. Although there were differences in the opinions of the mainstream industry associations, they had basically reached an agreement on supporting local industries and cracking down on Chinese products through a bill.
Ping An Securities Energy Team pointed out in the recent industry monthly report that in the context of intensified global manufacturing competition, the overseas trade environment and protection measures are still uncertain . In the future, the main photovoltaic industry chain as a whole will show a trend of intensified competition, and the competition pattern and profitability level remain to be further observed.
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