[DBM Polysilicon Weekly Review]: Downstream Short-term Stable Silicon Material Decline Convergence (2023.12.4)

short run, due to the downstream demand support and cost support, the possibility of a sharp drop in the price is reduced; in the long run, the price of silicon materials is still affected by the further impact of new production capacity.

I. Price Trend and Transaction

of Silicon Materials Last week, the average transaction price of N-type silicon materials was RMB 68,200/ton, with a decrease of 0.87% on a month-on-month basis, and the decrease was narrowed; the average transaction price of monocrystalline dense materials was RMB 62,500/ton, with a decrease of 79.6% on a year-on-year basis.

Figure: Price Trend

of Monocrystalline Dense Materials Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com

II. Stable

Demand Silicon wafer and solar cell enterprises started to operate steadily, which provided a certain support for the price of silicon materials. This shows that the relatively stable operation of the downstream industry chain is expected to have a positive impact on the silicon material market. Last week, new orders resumed and prices still fell.

Third, the price of silicon materials is close to the cost

of some enterprises. At present, the price of silicon materials is close to the production cost of related enterprises, while the inventory of silicon materials is relatively small. This shows that the supply and demand fundamentals are relatively balanced, prices are supported to a certain extent, and the possibility of a sharp decline in the later period is reduced.

At present, most of the polysilicon plants in China are operating normally, and a few enterprises are carrying out routine maintenance of some equipment, which has little impact on the total output. Although some enterprises have been slightly affected by the overhaul, the polysilicon industry as a whole has not yet seen a reduction in production. However, with the new production capacity put into operation at the end of the year, the market supply and demand relationship may face a short-term imbalance. During the year, the production capacity of polysilicon will continue to increase and new production capacity will be released. As it will take some time to improve the quality, the supply side structure may show a trend of differentiation.