1. Overview
of the national and regional market (1) National market: the downstream demand is insufficient, the market shocks and weakens
. In April, the market demand continued to recover compared with March, but the rainy weather was more, coupled with the shortage of funds in some areas, the reduction of new projects and other factors, the demand recovery was not as expected. The overall performance was weak; on the supply side, the production in many places entered a normal state, and the supply was enlarged. In general, the cement market supply exceeded demand in April, and the cement storage-capacity ratio continued to rise. The national cement price index (CEMPI) was 141.27 points at the beginning of April and closed at 135.73 points at the end of the month, down 4.01% from the previous month and 19.25% from the previous year.
Regionally, the recovery of demand in the six regions is less than expected, and the supply-demand relationship tends to be loose. Specifically, the demand in East China recovered slowly and the inventory continued to accumulate; the market in Northeast China was light and the shipment of enterprises was not good; the rainfall in Central and South China was obvious and the terminal demand was weakened; the downstream construction in North China was general and the new order volume was less; the inventory in some parts of Southwest China was low and the supply was slightly tight; the construction in Northwest China was good and the market demand was recovered.
Figures 1 and 2: April 2023 National Cement Price Index CEMPI, Cement Price Index (CEMPI) K-line
Chart Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Cost. At the end of March, the average spot price of 5500 kcal steam coal was 1008 yuan/ton, down 10.48% annually and 13.85% year-on-year. In April, the seasonal off-season characteristics of coal consumption were obvious. Although the overhaul of Daqin Line had a certain impact on the traffic volume, the port inventory was still on the high side, and the price of power coal fluctuated lower under the loose supply and demand. At the end of the month, the cost of coal per ton of cement was about 98.69 yuan, down 11.55 yuan from the end of March, and the cost pressure was reduced. At the end of April, the cost price difference between cement and coal was 253.5 yuan/ton, down 1.23% from the previous month, the price difference between cement and coal narrowed, the cost transfer ability of cement enterprises was still insufficient, and the production efficiency weakened to a certain extent.
Figure 3: Cement price, coal cost and price difference in April 2023 (yuan/ton)
Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
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