水泥行业迎熟料价格虎年第一涨,春季躁动行情是否可期?

2022-02-08 09:12:46

在稳增长预期之下,部分地区水泥价格酝酿以涨止跌。

春节前后本是建筑行业淡季,然而A股虎年开门红,水泥板块释放积极信号。2月7日,上峰水泥、天山股份、华新水泥纷纷涨停,带动部分基建类股票异动。

不仅仅是在二级市场,中国水泥网的数据显示,安徽沿江地区一些企业宣布上调水泥熟料价格约30元/吨,沿江大厂熟料离岸价格达到400元/吨。市场分析人士表示,春节前熟料价格已出现两轮下跌,在煤价成本压力之下,熟料价格有快速修复预期。加之一些企业或错峰生产,或停窑检修,整体库存不高,下游粉磨站采购后延,推动熟料价格上涨。

水泥行业资深人士表示,水泥行情一直存在明显的“春季躁动”。2022年1月以来,国家政策密集发声,强调“基础设施投资适度超前”。在稳增长预期之下,部分地区水泥价格酝酿以涨止跌。

不过,也有市场声音表示担忧,基建、地产投资实际落地情况还存在一些不确定性,加之在冬奥会环保限产、疫情反复等不确定因素影响下,需求或有下滑。

水泥需求或仍维持高位

尽管安徽沿江熟料价格迎来虎年第一涨,但是受天气等多方面因素影响,春节后全国工地复工情况并不理想。

中国水泥网施工指数在2月6日仅为22.31点,也就是全国八成城市不适合施工。特别是河南、湖北、江苏等地的部分地区遇上局地大雪,多雨阴雨天气可能一直持续到元宵节前。

按照往年惯例,水泥春季涨价行情会在正月十五过后,随着下游需求逐步复苏缓缓到来。尽管今年春节刚刚结束,就有部分地区熟料价格提涨,在市场分析人士看来,此轮涨价并非需求的快速修复,主要受成本以及库存的影响。

“春季行情依旧可期。”业内人士表示,稳增长政策发力叠加今年初价格高起点,为本轮躁动提供有利支撑。

从全国范围来看,今年元旦之后,多地重大项目密切开工。数据显示,春节前全国各地合计开工重大项目已达5608个,投资总额达42150. 03 亿元。特别是四川、浙江、上海等地公布的投资计划均在数千亿级别。

与此同时,国家多个部门持续发声,宏观调控政策不断加码。发改委有关负责人在春节期间接受新华社记者采访时表示,政策发力要适当靠前。适度超前开展基础设施投资,力争在一季度形成更多实物工作量。

相比于2021年水泥需求较为疲软的局面,鲍荣富表示,稳增长有望对水泥需求形成一定支撑。根据国家统计局数据,去年全国水泥产量23.63亿吨,同比下降1.2%。“今年第一季度需求可能以年前续建项目为主,年初新开工项目可能在第二季度形成实际需求,预计2022 年水泥需求或仍保持在高位水平”。

不过,也有机构指出,虽然基建加码,但5G基站建设、特高压、大数据中心等“新基建”才是重心,其较传统基建对水泥的边际需求是减少的。此外,从占水泥消费量较大的地产端来看,地产“市场底”尚未确认,地产对水泥需求的影响有待观察。

龙头话语权增强

宏观环境对水泥市场的需求仍有待观察,但是可以肯定的是,在“双碳”背景之下,龙头竞争优势凸显。水泥行业去年下半年以来的整合收购潮,使得龙头企业话语权不断增强。

去年年底,随着中国建材旗下水泥板块业务整合告一段落,天山股份在上演“蛇吞象”之后,一跃成为全球最大的水泥企业,市值也跃升至千亿元以上。

近日,天山股份公布2021年度业绩预告,预计业绩同向上升。报告期内归属于上市公司股东的净利润120亿元至138亿元,与上年同期重组前相比预计增长691.42%——810.13%;与上年同期重组后追溯调整数相比,预计下降7.61%——增长6.25%。天山股份称,重组后的公司资产规模、产能规模显著增加,经营业绩较上年同期重组前大幅增长。

另一水泥龙头海螺水泥在二级市场也动作频频,对亚泰集团、新力金融、西部水泥和西部建设四家构成举牌,从主业出发不断延伸扩展产业链。

此外,华润水泥、冀东水泥等行业龙头均涉及到跨集团的水泥企业收购、并购案中,包括华润水泥收购良田水泥51%股权、冀东水泥收购代县宏威水泥和华润福龙水泥股权等。

去年下半年以来,水泥行业面临不小的挑战。工信部最新数据显示,受疫情多点散发、原燃料价格快速上涨、限电限产等影响因素,去年水泥行业营业收入10754亿元,同比增长7.3%,利润总额1694亿元,同比下降10%。

一些机构认为,从短期来看,今年煤价仍将保持强势,水煤价差会继续扩大,但错峰生产、行业自律和能耗双控等还会制约水泥产能释放,利润仍有一定保证。中长期来看,水泥行业整体或呈“量减价增”趋势发展,若今年水泥行业纳入碳交易,或加速供给端集中度提升,龙头份额提升有望支撑业绩增长。

值得注意的是,水泥行业龙头企业早已开始布局新能源产业。去年8月,海螺水泥收购安徽海螺投资有限责任公司持有的新能源公司100%股权,交易对价约4.43亿元。今年1月底,上峰水泥披露,将联合阳光新能源与合肥凭新设立合资公司,共同布局光伏发电、储能等绿色能源产业,提升水泥产业能源利用效率,降低能耗成本,提升公司核心竞争力。

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Correlation

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