Cement is one of the main products of building materials industry. As an important basic raw material for national economic construction, it plays a vital role in the whole building materials industry. The upstream and downstream industries of cement involve mining, clinker, coal, electricity, aggregate, concrete, steel, glass and other building materials and construction and installation industries. Whether as the upstream demand side or as the downstream supply side, the rise and fall of its market, output and demand always attract the attention of the market. How to accurately predict the market and demand trend of building materials products and take the lead in the market is particularly important in the current and future market. In December
2023, China Cement Net Cement Big Data Research Institute officially launched the "Cement Big Data- Prediction Center ( https://data.ccement.com/finance/Forecast)". /board ) ", which is based on a complex algorithm system combining neural network and ARIMA methods, automatically predicts the price, output and demand of building materials products in the cement industry chain. The first edition of this issue includes the forecast of cement prices in the next 1 to 4 weeks in six regions of China, Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong and Guangdong.
For the prediction of cement price, the analyst team of Cement Big Data Research Institute screened many price influencing factors, such as price, shipment rate, cement storage capacity ratio, clinker storage capacity ratio, mill operation rate, cement index , time period, financial index and so on, through professional statistical technology analysis. The selected indexes are subjected to feature conversion (frequency change, same ring ratio, and moving average) by using the model, a part of factors with the largest influence weight are selected, and finally the neural network algorithm is used to carry out adaptive optimization iterative training on the model, and the training is stopped until the accuracy rate meets the expected requirement, so that the final prediction model and the result are obtained. In addition, in addition to the automatic prediction results of the model, senior industry researchers and market analysts of the Big Data Research Institute will also give the expert group's prediction results in each issue. December 11,
2023 (Monday) The model predicts that the cement price in Hebei Province will be 340.90 yuan/ton on December 15 (the first week in the future), 346.88 yuan/ton on December 22 (the second week in the future), 346.75 yuan/ton on December 29 (the third week in the future) and 341.06 yuan/ton on January 5 (the fourth week in the future). According to the mean relative error (RME) standard, the accuracy of the model for predicting the future 1 ~ 4 weeks in Hebei Province over the past year was 99.40%, 98.89%, 98.73% and 98.12%, respectively.
The Cement Big Data Forecast Center updates the cement price forecast data every Monday morning, and more forecast models and products will be launched in subsequent versions, please pay attention. Cement Big Data Research Institute
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China Cement Network (Cement Big Data Research Institute) was established in October 2009. It is a department specializing in high-end market research and consultation under the banner of "China Cement Network (Ccement. Com)". Relying on the resource advantages and industry reputation accumulated by China Cement Network for a long time, the Cement Big Data Research Institute has established and maintained a good knowledge network relationship with many domestic cement industry entrepreneurs, management experts, gove rnment officials and technical specialist. Cement Big Data Research Institute takes root in the development of building materials industry and actively launches forward-looking and high-quality service products with the aim of "serving the cement industry and building the building materials tomorrow together".
Data products: https://data.ccement.com. Building materials index: https://index.ccement.com/.
Research and consulting services: market research, regional analysis report, market report, customized data/research report. Index compilation. Industries
covered: cement, aggregate, concrete and cement products, construction steel, prefabricated building components, glass, coal and other bulk building materials products
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