[年报点评]海螺水泥:灾年稳健增长,开拓海南市场

2021-03-29 11:24:52

2020年,海螺水泥实现营业收入1762.43亿元,同比增长12.23%,归属于上市公司股东净利润351.30亿元,同比增长4.58 %。

综评:2020年,海螺水泥实现营业收入1762.43亿元,同比增长12.23%,归属于上市公司股东净利润351.30亿元,同比增长4.58 %。尽管遭遇新冠疫情和洪灾,水泥价格下跌,海螺水泥仍然实现了营收和净利润的双增长。主要得益于几方面因素:1)其他业务收入扩大,拉动营收增长;2、原煤价格下跌,吨成本下降;3、资产处置收益及利息收入增厚约15亿元。2021年海螺水泥今年准备新增熟料产能180万吨、水泥产能680万吨,加上去年末收购的海南的水泥厂将体现在今年,预计全年产销量和业绩进一步增长。

图1、2:海螺水泥灾年仍实现营收、净利润双增长

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

贸易量增长16.47%,水泥价格及成本下跌

2020年,水泥行业遭遇新冠疫情、洪灾等不利因素,海螺水泥销售价格下跌。但由于销量和贸易额的增长,营收实现了显著的增长,同时成本、费用也有所减少,营业利润和净利润也有一定的增长。

综合毛利率降低4.13个百分点至29.16%;全年净利率为20.64%,同比降低了1.24个百分点;净资产收益率23.62%,同比下降3.41个百分点。

表1:2018-2020年海螺水泥主要经营数据

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

2020年海螺水泥共销售水泥及熟料4.53亿吨,同比增长4.69%,其中自产品销量3.25亿吨,同比增长0.70%;贸易量为1.28亿吨,同比增长16.47%。为强化对终端市场控制2017年起海螺开始设立贸易平台,目前贸易公司已经遍及安徽、南京、山东、河南、湖南、浙江、江西、贵州、云南等多省,覆盖海螺的重点经营区域。去年9月,江北海中再设立广西来宾海中公司,江北海中为海螺水泥和南方水泥成立的合资公司。同时,江北海中收购芜湖南方51%的股权。双方贸易平台合作进一步深入。随着贸易量的增长,海螺水泥的市占率稳定上升,2020年总市占率(包含贸易)达到19.06%,对市场的的掌控力进一步增强。

2020年,海螺水泥自产水泥及熟料综合销售均价约为325.08元/吨,同比下跌3.38%。

图3、4:2016-2020年海螺水泥的水泥及熟料销量及销售均价

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

从吨数据来看,2020年海螺水泥的水泥熟料生产综合成本为170.75元/吨,同比下降-4.33%,其中主要是由于原煤价格下降。全年吨费用为24.79元,同比降低7.37%。吨毛利和吨净利分别为154.10元和111.91元。

图5:2011-2020年海螺水泥主要吨数据

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

其他收益增加,增厚2020年利润

从收入结构来看,2020年主营业务收入(包括水泥熟料、骨料、混凝土、建材贸易等),有小幅的下滑,而其他业务收入却猛增193.73亿元。其他收益,如资产处置、利息收入等也有明显的增长。资产处置一般而言不会有持续性,但利息收入是由于海螺水泥常年积累的现金,这块的收入会有持续性,并且会继续增长。

表2:2018-2020年海螺水泥部分收益来源(亿元)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

2021年盈利展望:开拓海南市场,产销量和经营业绩继续增长

2020年内海螺水泥通过自建和并购,共新增熟料产能900万吨,水泥产能1045万吨,主要是开拓海南市场和收购芜湖南方,新增骨料产能300万吨,商混产能120万方。2021年预计全年新增熟料产能180万吨、水泥产能680万吨。

今年是“十四五”开局之年,目前来看,各地基建项目落地较多,预计将明显拉动水泥需求。加上疫情过后,水泥价格相对去年将会有所上涨,去年12月收购海南的水泥厂将会体现在今年的业绩中,2021年海螺水泥自产水泥熟料产销量和经营业绩将会有一定的增长。(本文不构成投资建议)

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