水泥价格“跌跌不休”!别慌,好消息来了!

2021-12-27 09:15:10

2022年基建投资力度的加大,水泥需求在很大程度上得到保障。“适度超前开展基础设施投资增强了我们的信心,未来水泥发展形势预期基本明朗。”业内一专家对此表示。

进入12月下旬全国水泥需求有继续下降趋势,除北方市场已处于传统冬休淡季,华东、中南、西南等南方市场需求出货情况普遍不如往年同期水平,年底竞争加剧,加上一些省份水泥价格仍相对较高,价格尚有较多下降空间,国内水泥均价环比继续小幅下滑。

图1:全国水泥价格指数、长江水泥价格指数

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

具体而言:

东北地区黑龙江、吉林市场除零星日常发货,整体市场已经冬休,价格总体平稳,有价无市。辽宁地区已处于传统冬日淡季,大多数需求已经结束,沈阳、辽阳、大连等中南部地区水泥价格继续回落40-50元/吨。

西北地区陕西关中受疫情影响,西安包括周边部分市场接近停滞,水泥价格暂无明显波动;甘肃南部地区气温稍高,尚有部分工程赶工,但受周边四川价格持续回落影响,陇南部分厂家价格回落30元/吨左右;宁夏本地需求低迷,部分厂家对外销售水泥及熟料;青海、新疆市场错峰,行情淡季平稳,主要厂家出货在数百吨左右。

华北地区京津冀一带,传统市场淡季,加上大气污染预警频繁,整体需求偏淡。北京地区需求出货维持在4-6成水平,天津地区3-4成水平;河北一些地区水泥熟料库存低但需求差,价格易跌难涨;山西、内蒙古地区错峰生产,行情淡季平稳为主。

华东地区22日起江苏南京、镇江地区一些主要厂家公开通知下调散装水泥价格30元/吨,部分袋装同步跟进,淮安地区一些主要厂家成交价格下滑30-40元/吨;浙江地区天气晴好居多,加之临近年底,一些工程项目赶工期,水泥报价稳定;安徽地区施工条件尚好,市场供给受限,库存中位相对稳定,多地主导企业水泥挂牌高位平稳运行;福建地区市场需求持续偏弱,21日起区域一些主要企业开启新一轮水泥价格下滑20-30元/吨;江西市场渐入淡季,需求销量不济,赣州地区部分厂家继续下调水泥价格40-60元/吨;需求淡季,价格下滑加剧,山东济南、淄博、泰安、临沂、枣庄、青岛等多地市场水泥价格相继下滑20-30元/吨

中南地区湖北地区市场需求下滑,各地销量维持在正常状态3-7左右,20日前后多地厂家陆续下调水泥价格20-50元/吨不等;湖南需求表现疲软,库位上升,销售压力进一步加大,长株潭及周边市场部分水泥成交价继续走低50-60元/吨;广东近期部分工地陆续停工,工人提前返乡,市场需求销量下滑,20日粤东地区主要厂家继续下调散装水泥价格30元/吨;广西市场需求不足,21日北海继续下调散装水泥价格30元/吨,23日前后南宁、崇左地区继续下调水泥价格20-30元/吨;河南地区环保管控严峻,叠加错峰停窑,部分厂家尝试推动上调水泥价格20-50元/吨,具体落实待观察。

西南地区四川市场需求下滑,市场竞争加剧,17-22日多地陆续下调水泥价格30-40元/吨重庆水泥日出货量维持在常态4-7成左右,库存高位运行,部分厂家对渝东南地区下调水泥价格20-30元/吨;贵州黔南地区市场需求销量低迷,黔南、黔东南地区下调水泥价格30元/吨左右,毕节个别大厂销价下调50-60元/吨;云南项目施工进度放缓,且部分工地已停工放假,德宏地区部分规格水泥价格回落50-60元/吨;18日以来西藏拉萨、山南、日喀则地区上调各品种水泥出厂价格40元/吨左右,上调恢复价格为来年市场做准备。

2022年基建投资力度将加大 利好水泥需求

回首近年来水泥行业四季度,无论是价格走势还是企业发货情况均是一年中最旺盛的时节,对于一些体量较小的粉磨企业来说,四季度的好坏决定了全年最终的盈利情况。反观今年却一反常态。中国水泥网数据显示,长三角和珠三角两大水泥热点市场进入四季度以来,水泥价格持续走低,旺季不再。为何?

一方面,九、十两月短时间内快速上调的水泥价格已经透支了未来的上涨空间,供给恢复常态后价格必然回归。另一方面。往年四季度是前期全国均是施工旺季,南方地区甚至可以持续到年底,而今年的水泥需求却过早偃旗息鼓,水泥价格无法得到支撑。”中国水泥网·水泥大数据研究院高级分析师李坤明表示,“第二点是根本因素。”

作为国民经济重要基础原材料行业,水泥行业的发展和宏观经济走势有着密切关系。

日前召开的中央经济工作会议明确提出要“适度超前开展基础设施投资”,这意味着2022年基建投资力度将加大。总体来看,2021年地方政府新增专项债中,超过1万亿元的额度将结余到2022年落地实施。同时,预计2022年新增专项债将超过3.5万亿,发行进度也将适度提前。按照此前全国人大常委会的授权,2022年可提前下达的专项债最高额度为2.19万亿,将促进基建投资增速回升。此外,还将鼓励和引导民间资本参与基础设施建设,特别是有稳定收入的基建项目将向民间资本开放,激发市场主体的投资活力。

2022年基建投资力度的加大,水泥需求在很大程度上得到保障。“适度超前开展基础设施投资增强了我们的信心,未来水泥发展形势预期基本明朗。”业内一专家对此表示。

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Correlation

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the cement output from January to September in 2024 is 1326.7 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%; the industry expects that the profit of the whole industry in the first three quarters is only about 3.1 billion yuan, setting the worst record in decades. With the increasingly fierce competition among cement enterprises and the continuous decline of industry efficiency, how can enterprises adjust their development strategies, cross the industry cycle and usher in a new rise in performance? Only when you know yourself and your enemy can you fight a hundred battles with no danger of defeat. If we can accurately grasp the data of industry production and operation demand in real time, it will be the key factor for enterprises to achieve market breakthroughs.

2024-11-12 10:13:04

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the overall market demand in Northwest China has declined, some kilns have been shut down, and most prices are stable. For example, the cement market demand in Gansu is weak at present, especially in Lanzhou and its surrounding areas, the inventory of some manufacturers is not high.

2024-11-08 17:27:44

Asia Cement said in the third quarter report that looking forward to the fourth quarter, the demand for cement will pick up to a certain extent. With the support of increasing peak staggering efforts, the contradiction between supply and demand of cement will be alleviated in stages. It is expected that the results of the increase in cement prices in the third quarter will be maintained until the end of the year, and the benefits of cement enterprises are expected to usher in marginal improvement.

2024-11-06 10:05:59

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places in Yunnan in southwest China has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Liangshan and Panzhihua in Sichuan have also begun to push up by 50 yuan/ton. In Guizhou, some major manufacturers in Qiannan, Qianxinan, Zunyi, Tongren and other regions have recently raised the cement price by 10-40 yuan/ton, while the quotation in other regions has been stable for the time being.

2024-11-01 17:32:29

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

Since October, the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market has been relatively stable and has not risen yet. At present, the 4600t/d production line of the local cement industry has been ignited recently, which is expected to have a certain impact on the eastern Guangdong market in the short term. However, the increase in the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta and Fujian can lay a certain foundation for the increase in the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market.

2024-10-29 09:40:30

On October 25, the "2024 China Cement Double Carbon Conference and the 12th Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference" continued brilliantly. Gao Dengbang, President of China Cement Association, Zhu Shengli, General Manager of Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd., Lv Zhijian, President of Xinjiang Building Material Industry Association, Ma Weiping, Chairman of OCC, Jiang Dehong, Vice President and Chief Engineer of Tianshan Material Co., Ltd., Li Jian, Associate Researcher of China Academy of Environmental Sciences, and Fan Yueming, Professor of South China University of Technology. Zhuge Wenda, Chairman of Hubei Century Xinfeng Leishan Cement Co., Ltd., Yan Haochun, Technical Director of China National Inspection and Testing Holding Group and General Manager of Certification and Evaluation Center, China Architecture

2024-10-25 10:53:14

Under the current supply and demand situation of the industry, strict implementation of off-peak production is still the key to maintain the stable development of the industry. According to its introduction, the number of off-peak production days in Chongqing this year may reach nearly 200 days, about 20 days more than last year. However, from the implementation of this year, two key problems need to be solved to promote off-peak production. 1、 Some small enterprises are not enthusiastic about participating. According to its introduction, large enterprises and some small enterprises in the region can strictly implement the peak-staggering production plan, but some small-scale cement enterprises, especially single-line enterprises, have poor enthusiasm for the implementation of peak-staggering production, which makes it difficult to implement the regional peak-staggering production as a whole.

2024-10-15 14:42:58

After the National Day, the domestic concrete market demand rebounded slightly, but the total amount is still relatively weak, concrete enterprises are mainly shipping at stable prices, and have not yet followed the rise of raw materials. From October 3 to October 9, the national concrete price index closed at 112.82 points, in line with the National Day holiday, with a year-on-year decline of 10.21%.

2024-10-12 17:25:54

In September, real estate investment continued to decline, infrastructure funds in place were insufficient, and some areas were greatly affected by typhoons and heavy rainfall, terminal demand was still relatively low, Jinjiu market expectations failed, but at the end of the month, affected by peak staggering and production reduction, the Yangtze River Delta region sharply pushed up cement and clinker prices, and the national cement prices rose. In October, on the supply side, it is expected that the supply side will be relatively stable, the terminal demand will continue to improve, and the overall cement price in October will show a strong trend of volatility.

2024-10-11 15:31:54

Tianfeng Securities Research Report shows that with the arrival of the peak season in September, the progress of special bonds and special bonds at the infrastructure end has been accelerated and major local projects have been started, and the demand for cement is expected to pick up. Recently, the cement shipment data continued to recover, and the price side also rose synchronously. At present, most cement enterprises are still in a state of loss. With the strengthening of industry supply self-discipline, the superimposed demand is expected to improve marginally, and the industry profit center is expected to be lifted.

2024-09-19 10:18:37

As a "veteran" of the industry, Li Wenxiu has personally experienced the ups and downs of the cement industry for decades. Faced with the current difficulties, Li Wenxiu believes that solidifying the market and share is the key to stabilizing the development trend of the industry, steadily promoting capacity removal and realizing the "soft landing" of the industry under the background of a sharp decline in demand. "The more the economic downturn, the more stable employment, stable income, capacity is inevitable, but how to go to capacity is the way we can choose, the current solidification of the market, solidification of share, to maintain the basic efficiency of the industry is very critical.".

2024-09-18 11:20:28

Faced with the adverse effects of the deep adjustment of real estate and the slowdown of infrastructure investment, the company will adhere to the principle of "market, resources and returns" and enhance market control to promote high-quality M & a projects in areas with low industry concentration and blank markets.

2024-09-13 15:27:16

According to incomplete statistics, there are about 33 listed companies developing commercial mixing business in A-share motherboard, Hong Kong stock and Taiwan stock, of which 9 companies take commercial mixing as their main business.

2024-09-10 17:04:29

In the first half of 2024, Conch Cement realized an operating income of RMB45.566 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 30.44%, and a net profit attributable to parent company of RMB3.326 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 48.56%.

2024-08-30 14:56:13

Relevant data show that the industry lost about 1.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with sales falling by 11%. Conch Cement: In the first half of the year, the Company achieved an operating income of RMB45.566 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 30.44%, and a net profit of RMB3.326 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 48.56%. Tapai Group: achieved operating income of RMB1.976 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31.17%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB226 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 53.43%. It is expected that with the arrival of the traditional peak season of cement sales, the demand side will be better in the second half of the year than in the first half, and the price side is expected to continue to repair.

2024-08-30 10:06:24

From a supply perspective. In 2024, the cement industry still showed a trend of "serious overcapacity". Although the expectation of environmental protection and low carbon still maintains the trend of "continuous overweight", "normalization of staggered peak production" and "carbon peak" have some constraints on the compression of cement supply in most regions, due to the overall weakening of market demand, the original production intensity of compressed cement has been difficult to reverse the current contradiction between supply and demand in a large scale, and the market. The effect of regulation and control on the supply side of superimposed peak staggering production is weakened, and the market competition is further intensified.

2024-08-28 11:34:46

The company will pay close attention to the macroeconomic situation and industrial policies, optimize the strategic layout, promote the "vertical integration" expansion of the industrial chain, and build the ecological chain of the building materials industry. The company will deepen its main business, widely use digital intelligence technology and green technology, and promote the optimization and upgrading of the cement industry chain; Expand the industrial layout to promote the healthy development of the industry from the strategic height, expand the layout of the commercial concrete industry around the core areas, and further enhance the market influence and discourse power; precisely supplement the chain, combine the company's resource endowment, Industrial base, cultivate related diversified industries, and cultivate the second growth curve.

2024-08-28 11:00:03

Influenced by factors such as the continuous bottoming of real estate investment, the slowdown of infrastructure investment and the increase of seasonal rainfall in Jiangxi and the surrounding areas, the demand for cement in the market areas covered by Evergreen continued to be weak, the contradiction between supply and demand intensified competition, and the low price led to the continuous decline of industry efficiency. According to the Evergreen Announcement, through the organic combination of resource orientation and market regional characteristics, the company has achieved the integration of upstream and downstream development of the industrial chain.

2024-08-28 10:46:16

In the first half of the year, Tianshan's revenue was 39.699 billion yuan, down 25.72%, with a net loss of 3.414 billion yuan. The main reason for the decline in performance was the sharp drop in cement demand and the decline in gross profit margin caused by the price drop exceeding the cost drop.

2024-08-27 11:52:21

Tianshan shares in the evening of August 26th issued 2024 semi-annual report, the company achieved operating income of 39.699 billion yuan in the first half of the year, down 25.72%; net loss of 3.414 billion yuan, profit to loss; basic earnings per share -0.394 yuan. During the reporting period, due to the continuous decline in real estate investment and insufficient funds for infrastructure projects, the demand for cement declined significantly. Although the year-on-year decline in coal prices led to a significant reduction in costs, due to the continued low price, the year-on-year decline was greater than cost decline, the gross profit margin declined year-on-year, and the benefits declined significantly year-on-year.

2024-08-27 09:14:28

During the reporting period, real estate investment continued to decline and infrastructure investment slowed down, which directly affected the demand for cement, and this trend became more obvious after the Spring Festival, resulting in a continuous decline in the demand for cement. During the reporting period, the company's cement sales decreased by 577900 tons, and the average price of cement decreased by 45.03 yuan, or 17.26%. During the reporting period, the company suspended the production of high-cost Strait Cement and reduced the marketing scale of Jinyinhu Cement, which had a positive impact on the year-on-year loss reduction.

2024-08-26 10:40:10

We need to establish the core values of "others earn more, I can earn more" to guide production and operation. In the short run, only by actively limiting production and restoring the balance of supply and demand in the weak market, can the cement industry achieve a recovery in efficiency. Without enough initiative and consistency to limit production, all those who talk about the price of cement are cheaters and hooligans, and they can not succeed.

2024-08-13 15:12:11

The vicious competition of "involution" is a game without winners.

2024-08-08 10:38:47

Since the beginning of this year, enterprises around the country have generally increased their efforts to stagger the peak, but it is still not enough to reverse the imbalance between supply and demand. In the future, the cement industry may face a severe test.

2024-08-05 13:48:41

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the shutdown of kilns in Liaoning, Northeast China, was extended to 20 days in August, the overall price was high and stable, the demand performance was not good, and the momentum to push up again was insufficient.

2024-08-02 17:28:08

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the demand and sales in southwest China are sluggish, cement prices in Sichuan and Chongqing continue to fall, and some regions have fallen back to the level before the price increase in June. Some markets in the surrounding Yunnan-Guizhou region are still pushing up in the week, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-08-02 17:25:15

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong in central and southern China has recovered by 10-15 yuan/ton, and the quotation in Guangxi is temporarily stable. Prices in some areas of the two lakes have fallen in the early stage, and the overall market is mainly stable this week.

2024-08-02 17:16:26

According to the market data of China Cement Network, affected by the high temperature weather and rainy season, the demand performance of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is flat and the price is weak.

2024-08-02 17:12:52

According to the cement network market data center news, Ningxia prices continue to decline; Shaanxi region recently due to the contradiction between supply and demand and price competition led to a larger price reduction.

2024-08-02 16:39:35

According to the data center of China Cement Market, due to the low ex-factory prices in various regions, some regions began to resume pricing this week.

2024-08-02 16:30:32

The future demand for cement depends on the construction progress of new projects and continued projects. It is expected that cement demand will be difficult to improve in the future, and enterprises should reduce demand expectations in order to cope with the downward trend and develop rapidly.

2024-08-02 10:18:05

Looking forward to the second half of 2024, we believe that the demand for cement will improve compared with the first half of the year, and the price will continue to rebound. However, under the constraints of weak demand and serious overcapacity, the repair of cement price is limited. Throughout the year, cement demand will face

2024-08-01 09:19:52

"There are two leading enterprises fighting in Guanzhong.".

2024-07-31 17:32:22

Demand is declining, supply is increasing, and the price of sand and gravel industry is adjusted in an all-round way.

2024-07-31 15:56:20

The industry must rationally face the current situation of insufficient demand.

2024-07-29 15:09:40

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the Northeast region shut down the kiln again for 15 days in August, which played a supporting role in cement prices.

2024-07-26 17:06:09

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the intensity of peak staggering has been increased, and the price of cement in Yunnan-Guizhou region has been raised by 30-100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed. Cement prices in some markets in Sichuan and Chongqing have dropped by 30-50 yuan/ton.

2024-07-26 16:56:03

Adani is also a big man in the Indian cement industry and is the second largest cement producer in India. He entered the industry in 2022 with the acquisition of Holcim's cement business in India, which acquired about 70 million tons of cement per year for $10.5 billion. Adani plans to expand its annual cement production capacity to 140 million tons by 2028. Adani has previously invested $1.6 billion to acquire Sanchi Cement and Penna Cement, and is expected to acquire an additional 21 million tons of production capacity.