水泥价格“跌跌不休”!别慌,好消息来了!

2021-12-27 09:15:10

2022年基建投资力度的加大,水泥需求在很大程度上得到保障。“适度超前开展基础设施投资增强了我们的信心,未来水泥发展形势预期基本明朗。”业内一专家对此表示。

进入12月下旬全国水泥需求有继续下降趋势,除北方市场已处于传统冬休淡季,华东、中南、西南等南方市场需求出货情况普遍不如往年同期水平,年底竞争加剧,加上一些省份水泥价格仍相对较高,价格尚有较多下降空间,国内水泥均价环比继续小幅下滑。

图1:全国水泥价格指数、长江水泥价格指数

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

具体而言:

东北地区黑龙江、吉林市场除零星日常发货,整体市场已经冬休,价格总体平稳,有价无市。辽宁地区已处于传统冬日淡季,大多数需求已经结束,沈阳、辽阳、大连等中南部地区水泥价格继续回落40-50元/吨。

西北地区陕西关中受疫情影响,西安包括周边部分市场接近停滞,水泥价格暂无明显波动;甘肃南部地区气温稍高,尚有部分工程赶工,但受周边四川价格持续回落影响,陇南部分厂家价格回落30元/吨左右;宁夏本地需求低迷,部分厂家对外销售水泥及熟料;青海、新疆市场错峰,行情淡季平稳,主要厂家出货在数百吨左右。

华北地区京津冀一带,传统市场淡季,加上大气污染预警频繁,整体需求偏淡。北京地区需求出货维持在4-6成水平,天津地区3-4成水平;河北一些地区水泥熟料库存低但需求差,价格易跌难涨;山西、内蒙古地区错峰生产,行情淡季平稳为主。

华东地区22日起江苏南京、镇江地区一些主要厂家公开通知下调散装水泥价格30元/吨,部分袋装同步跟进,淮安地区一些主要厂家成交价格下滑30-40元/吨;浙江地区天气晴好居多,加之临近年底,一些工程项目赶工期,水泥报价稳定;安徽地区施工条件尚好,市场供给受限,库存中位相对稳定,多地主导企业水泥挂牌高位平稳运行;福建地区市场需求持续偏弱,21日起区域一些主要企业开启新一轮水泥价格下滑20-30元/吨;江西市场渐入淡季,需求销量不济,赣州地区部分厂家继续下调水泥价格40-60元/吨;需求淡季,价格下滑加剧,山东济南、淄博、泰安、临沂、枣庄、青岛等多地市场水泥价格相继下滑20-30元/吨

中南地区湖北地区市场需求下滑,各地销量维持在正常状态3-7左右,20日前后多地厂家陆续下调水泥价格20-50元/吨不等;湖南需求表现疲软,库位上升,销售压力进一步加大,长株潭及周边市场部分水泥成交价继续走低50-60元/吨;广东近期部分工地陆续停工,工人提前返乡,市场需求销量下滑,20日粤东地区主要厂家继续下调散装水泥价格30元/吨;广西市场需求不足,21日北海继续下调散装水泥价格30元/吨,23日前后南宁、崇左地区继续下调水泥价格20-30元/吨;河南地区环保管控严峻,叠加错峰停窑,部分厂家尝试推动上调水泥价格20-50元/吨,具体落实待观察。

西南地区四川市场需求下滑,市场竞争加剧,17-22日多地陆续下调水泥价格30-40元/吨重庆水泥日出货量维持在常态4-7成左右,库存高位运行,部分厂家对渝东南地区下调水泥价格20-30元/吨;贵州黔南地区市场需求销量低迷,黔南、黔东南地区下调水泥价格30元/吨左右,毕节个别大厂销价下调50-60元/吨;云南项目施工进度放缓,且部分工地已停工放假,德宏地区部分规格水泥价格回落50-60元/吨;18日以来西藏拉萨、山南、日喀则地区上调各品种水泥出厂价格40元/吨左右,上调恢复价格为来年市场做准备。

2022年基建投资力度将加大 利好水泥需求

回首近年来水泥行业四季度,无论是价格走势还是企业发货情况均是一年中最旺盛的时节,对于一些体量较小的粉磨企业来说,四季度的好坏决定了全年最终的盈利情况。反观今年却一反常态。中国水泥网数据显示,长三角和珠三角两大水泥热点市场进入四季度以来,水泥价格持续走低,旺季不再。为何?

一方面,九、十两月短时间内快速上调的水泥价格已经透支了未来的上涨空间,供给恢复常态后价格必然回归。另一方面。往年四季度是前期全国均是施工旺季,南方地区甚至可以持续到年底,而今年的水泥需求却过早偃旗息鼓,水泥价格无法得到支撑。”中国水泥网·水泥大数据研究院高级分析师李坤明表示,“第二点是根本因素。”

作为国民经济重要基础原材料行业,水泥行业的发展和宏观经济走势有着密切关系。

日前召开的中央经济工作会议明确提出要“适度超前开展基础设施投资”,这意味着2022年基建投资力度将加大。总体来看,2021年地方政府新增专项债中,超过1万亿元的额度将结余到2022年落地实施。同时,预计2022年新增专项债将超过3.5万亿,发行进度也将适度提前。按照此前全国人大常委会的授权,2022年可提前下达的专项债最高额度为2.19万亿,将促进基建投资增速回升。此外,还将鼓励和引导民间资本参与基础设施建设,特别是有稳定收入的基建项目将向民间资本开放,激发市场主体的投资活力。

2022年基建投资力度的加大,水泥需求在很大程度上得到保障。“适度超前开展基础设施投资增强了我们的信心,未来水泥发展形势预期基本明朗。”业内一专家对此表示。

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Correlation

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