中国水泥协会:突破八百亿 向千亿利润冲刺

2017-08-28 17:36:58

2017年以来,水泥行业经济运行稳中向好,既是大企业带头、全行业拼搏努力的结果,更得益于“去产能、强自律、增效益”工作的深入推进,特别是“错峰生产、协调自律”所取得的突出成效,从而改变了多年来水泥行业恶性竞争“打价格战”的市场环境,极大地增强了全行业按照党中央、国务院要求,积极推进供给侧结构性改革,实现转型升级的信心和决心。

  2017年以来,水泥行业经济运行稳中向好,既是大企业带头、全行业拼搏努力的结果,更得益于“去产能、强自律、增效益”工作的深入推进,特别是“错峰生产、协调自律”所取得的突出成效,从而改变了多年来水泥行业恶性竞争“打价格战”的市场环境,极大地增强了全行业按照党中央、国务院要求,积极推进供给侧结构性改革,实现转型升级的信心和决心。

  一、四大特点显示经济稳中向好

  2017年上半年水泥行业整体业绩表现亮丽,水泥价格已经打破以往的“年末涨年初跌”的周期惯例,持续20多个月稳定提升。四大特点显示全国水泥行业经济运行稳中向好。

  1.全国水泥产量基本持平。截至2017年上半年,全国有水泥企业3465家,其中熟料生产企业46家,含熟料的水泥生产企业1234家,水泥粉磨站企业2173家,水泥配置站企业12家。全国熟料实际总产能20.2亿吨,水泥产能38.30亿吨。根据国家统计局最新数据显示,2017年1~7月,全国累计水泥产量13.3亿吨,同比增长0.2%,7月份,全国单月水泥产量2.1亿吨,同比下降0.9%;与上月相比降幅较大,降幅为3.61%。

  2.区域市场有增有减。分省来看,有14个省、区、市同比正增长,17个省、区、市同比负增长,其中宁夏和西藏以24%和23%的增速位居各省第一和第二位,下滑最大的集中在华北地区:北京、内蒙古、天津、河北、甘肃下滑超过2位数。

  3.水泥价格大幅回升。3月份后,水泥价格持续上涨,到5月份达到今年最高的354元/吨(P.O42.5含税到位价),全国水泥价格无论是同比还是环比均实现了大幅度的上涨,6月份比去年同期价格高出82元/吨,比1月份也高出16元/吨。虽然6月份进入行业淡季,水泥库容比持续走高,但价格仅出现小幅度回调,平均回调约5元/吨。22个主要熟料输出市场的熟料价格也表现为同比和环比的大幅上涨,到6月份熟料平均市场价格为288元/吨,比去年同期上涨95元/吨,比1月份高出30元/吨,上涨幅度超过水泥价格。

  4.利润效益明显改善。1~6月,水泥行业营收4598亿元,同比增长21%;利润333.6亿元,同比增长248%,;销售利润率7.3%,较去年同期提高4.8个百分点;百元资产实现利润2.53元,同比提高1.79元。上半年水泥行业利润超过去年1~10个月的利润总和,利润率也超过工业平均水平。

  二、四大因素预示经济效益可期

  尽管少数局部地区水泥市场价格还有下跌,前进路上还存在许多不确定因素,但机遇大于挑战,水泥行业经济稳中向好的基础逐步稳固,有利因素多于不利因素。综合分析,四大因素将支持水泥行业全年经济实现利润冲击1000亿元,接近历史最好水平。

  1.当前宏观经济运行持续好转。上半年我国经济增长延续了平稳走势, GDP同比增长6.9%,呈现“内生需求回暖、供给运行平稳”的特征。我国经济保持了稳中向好发展态势,经济运行在合理区间,主要指标好于预期,质量效益回升。经济平稳增长的内在动力,总体上将会支撑水泥行业生产经营状况保持良好态势。

  2.国家基础建设投资继续加大。截至今年6月底,13大类重大工程已累计完成投资9.9万亿元,开工58个专项、601个项目。日前,国家发改委密集批复了一批地方基础设施投资项目,预计下半年固定资产投资将进一步提速。7月份,国家发改委就审批核准固定资产投资项目22个,总投资1655亿元,这将改善水泥的供求关系,为水泥行业提供了平稳的市场空间。

  3.房地产行业稳定发展。1~6月份,全国房地产开发投资50610亿元,同比增长8.5%。分区域看,东部地区房地产开发投资27252亿元,同比增长8.4%,增速与1~5月份持平;中部地区投资10631亿元,增长16.0%,增速回落0.9个百分点;西部地区投资10991亿元,增长6.8%,增速回落0.2个百分点。房地产行业的稳定发展,也为水泥市场回升奠定了基础。

  4.错峰生产、环保督查效果持续。我国绝大部分省份出台了包括“错峰生产”、“环保督察”在内的多项限产措施,客观导致了供给的减少,改善了供需关系,库存水平大幅低于去年。行业通过自律行为减少了恶性的价格竞争,水泥市场价格稳定回升。供给侧结构性改革,按市场需求生产成为行业的共识,行业自律、区域市场协调治理能力得到了充分体现,行业对水泥市场价格的控制力在增强。

  基于上述四条因素,我们预计2017年全年水泥需求与去年基本持平,维持在24亿吨的总规模。四季度价格将会重新站上高点,价格的进一步回升将带动行业效益继续增长,全年水泥行业利润将突破800亿元,向1000亿元的目标发起冲击。

  三、四大举措确保行业利润目标实现

  2017年是实施国家“十三五”规划的重要一年,也是水泥行业供给侧结构性改革的深化之年。中国水泥协会的总体工作思路是:切实以为行业和企业服务为宗旨,携手省级水泥(建材)协会,继续深入贯彻国务院办公厅《指导意见》精神,建立以“水泥行业结构调整专项资金”为核心的水泥投资管理公司创新试点为突破口,为行业“去产能、控产量”的供给侧改革闯出新路;以提升行业经济运行质量为切入点,全面开展水泥市场自律协调工作;以加强政策研究推动政府出台相关政策为支撑面,全面探索引领水泥行业健康发展之路。

  1.“两会”为行业健康发展奠定基础。3月21日在昆明,协会组织举办了2017年全国大型水泥企业领导人圆桌会议(C12+3峰会)。会议主题:“供给侧改革去产能,区域间协调增效益”。这是一次行业定调的会议,峰会形成了共识意见书,为年度行业工作唱好主旋律。7月26日在安徽芜湖,协会组织筹备了“水泥行业去产能强自律增效益促进大会暨中国水泥协会七届六次理事会议”。会议主题:“去产能、强自律、增效益”这是再次同意思想,再次动员的大会。会议形成了共识意见书,为行业今年取得更大的成绩奠定了基础。

  2.加强组织领导落实具体措施。C12+3峰会决定成立了“水泥行业去产能领导小组”,花费2个多月时间,聚集协会和企业20多人参与研究起草了“去产能”系列文件,包括1个总体计划、5个向政府部门提交的政策建议、2个行动方案、1个办法、1个标准、1个指南。这一系列文件是协会和企业研究管理人员公共辛劳的结果。它凝聚了行业的意见与智慧,对行业的结构改革将发挥重要作用。

  3.开展结构调整自筹资金创新试点。2017年初,在山东省淄博市淄川区人民政府的支持下,由当地7家水泥熟料生产企业共同出资入股,组建了淄博联和水泥企业管理有限公司。公司为贯彻国务院办公厅文件精神,以打造全国水泥行业供给侧结构性改革和“去产能、强自律、增效益”示范点为目的,通过资源整合,有效推进水泥产业结构调整和企业转型升级。中国水泥协会已经批复同意创新试点,并于明年上半年检查验收,总结经验,条件成熟向政府部门申请全国推广。这一创新试点对水泥行业“利用市场机制自筹资金去产能”将具有重要意义。

  4.加强组织建设做好市场自律与协调。2016年中国水泥协会下发了《关于进一步加强省级水泥协会组织机构和组织建设的指导意见》。目前全国已有水泥协会独立组织的25个,在建材协会中设有水泥专业委员会的4个。省级水泥协会组织建设的进一步加强,使中国水泥协会自律协调工作,做起来更加得心应手。芜湖会议上,中国水泥协会也发布《中国水泥协会市场价格行为自律指南》。在抓区域市场治理、错峰生产、市场协调自律工作中,协会要严格遵守国家法律法规,规范自己的市场价格行为。

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Correlation

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Recently, affected by the market situation, coupled with the poor implementation of the policy of staggering peak and stopping kilns, cement prices in Wuhan have fallen again, with a cumulative decline of about 30 yuan/ton..

2025-04-23 16:45:10

Relevant technicians of Suzhou Shijing Science and Technology Co., Ltd. pointed out that SCR is a very mature denitrification technology, which has been widely used in power and other industries. However, the cement industry still needs to focus on the catalyst, soot blower and reaction tower flow field to further optimize the three aspects.

2025-04-23 15:08:00

For a long time, cement has been the main loading and unloading cargo in Changgang Port. Faced with the continuous decline of domestic cement market demand in recent years, Changgang actively responded to the situation, actively sought change, timely adjusted the market development strategy, and took the development of foreign trade cement market as an important breakthrough in transformation and upgrading through comprehensive consideration of the domestic and foreign cement market.

2025-04-23 13:40:23

On April 21, information from the Beijing Property Exchange showed that 51% of the shares of Xin'an Zhonglian Wanji Cement Co., Ltd. held by China United Cement Group Co., Ltd. were listed for transfer at a base price of about 200 million yuan.

2025-04-23 11:50:52

Price governance is an important part of macroeconomic governance. In order to further deepen the price reform and improve the price governance mechanism, with the consent of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the following opinions are put forward.

2025-04-23 10:34:13

The two sides will deepen cooperation around green building materials, new energy materials, circular economy and other fields, jointly create a new benchmark for the coordinated development of the industrial chain, and inject new momentum into the construction of "three places and one district" in Anhui.

2025-04-23 10:18:33

According to the announcement, the production capacity of Luoyang Huanghe Tongli Cement Co., Ltd. is 5000t/d after the cement clinker production line with a daily output of 4500 tons is completed. The replacement capacity for this project is 1000t/d of the 2000t/d clinker production line of Henan Tongli Cement Co., Ltd., and the replacement ratio is 2:1.

2025-04-23 10:13:11