On November 9, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump led his rival Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton by more than 270 electoral votes, making him the 45th president in American history.
This election in the United States has been given a high degree of domestic attention, compared to the question of who is elected, we are more concerned about the impact of the two political and economic views on our country. Especially in the context of the current "the Belt and Road", what impact will Trump's election bring to the cement industry, which urgently needs to go out to resolve the overcapacity crisis?
Compared with Hillary's "old and hot" calmness, Trump, who lacks political experience, is more radical, adding more instability to the world economic environment. On the whole, apart from the political level, the most obvious views in the economic field focus on two aspects.
First, in order to protect traditional industries, Trump advocates trade protectionism and opposes free trade agreements such as NAFTA and TPP. Trump proposes to declare China currency manipulator and impose a 45% tariff on all Chinese imports.
Second, Trump has repeatedly criticized the distortions brought about by the Fed's low interest rate policy. Although the low interest rate environment can reduce the financing cost of infrastructure investment, Trump's remarks may indicate that the low interest rate policy may be adjusted in the future.
Combined with Trump's campaign speech, it can be seen that Trump's coming to power may lead to the weakening of the US dollar in the short term and temporarily ease the depreciation pressure of the RMB, but in the medium term, Trump's trade protectionism (restraining imports from China) and advocating the inclusion of China as a currency manipulator may increase the depreciation pressure of the RMB.
At present, domestic cement enterprises are pushing forward the strategy of going out to alleviate the pressure of overcapacity. The increasing pressure of RMB devaluation means that the cost of overseas investment increases, which makes it more difficult for domestic cement enterprises to invest. Trump's uncertainty in the field of economic policy also makes it difficult to predict the global economic trend, and the risk of overseas investment of domestic enterprises will increase.
In addition, Trump doubts whether human activities lead to climate change and promises to guide the United States towards energy autonomy while considering clean air and water. Including increasing domestic oil and gas production capacity, lifting some domestic energy production restrictions, opposing the Obama administration's clean energy plan, and breaking away from the Paris Agreement.
& emsp; & emsp; The Paris Agreement is an important document for global control of climate warming, which is of great significance for promoting global carbon emission reduction and carbon trading. As a major carbon dioxide emitter in the world, if the United States withdraws from the Paris Agreement or takes a negative and conflicting attitude towards climate change, it may have a certain impact on the implementation of carbon emission reduction policies around the world, and also cast a shadow on the national carbon emissions trading market that China plans to establish next year.
Attached: Trump's Main Political and Economic Positions
Attitude and stance on China: Trump remains tough. Trump has a tough policy stance on China. Trump blames China's rise for America's woes. He has said that after being elected, he will strengthen the US military deployment in the East China Sea and the South China Sea to deter China.
Immigration policy and employment: Trump sees Muslims as a potential Trojan horse for the United States, banning entry if necessary, and refusing to accept refugees from the Middle East. He said he would build a wall on the Mexican border and deport 11 million illegal immigrants.
Fiscal policy: Both Democrats and Republicans favor deficit reduction and economic stimulus, but there are differences in the means of deficit reduction. Trump advocates reducing government spending, such as repealing Obama's health care plan and stopping the hiring of new employees in the government. Another core of Trump's fiscal policy is tax cuts to stimulate domestic investment and consumption, and Trump is more willing to increase defense spending.
Monetary policy: Trump has repeatedly criticized the distortions brought about by the Fed's low interest rate policy. Although the low interest rate environment can reduce the financing cost of infrastructure investment, Trump's remarks may indicate that the low interest rate policy may be adjusted in the future.
Trade policy: Trump's trade policy is more radical. In order to protect traditional industries, he has always advocated trade protectionism and opposed free trade agreements such as NAFTA and TPP. Trump has proposed declaring China currency manipulator and imposing a 45% tariff on all Chinese imports.
Energy and climate: Trump agrees that climate change is a major environmental challenge, and even doubts that human activity is causing it. In a speech in May, Trump promised to steer the US toward energy independence with clean air and water in mind. Including increasing domestic oil and gas production capacity, lifting some domestic energy production restrictions, opposing the Obama administration's clean energy plan, and breaking away from the Paris Agreement. He said the United States should pursue all forms of energy, including renewable energy, but should not have a preference for various energy sources.
浙公网安备33010802003254号