2020水泥行业谨慎乐观!价格仍有上涨空间!

2020-01-09 17:48:36

江勋强调,2020年应对水泥行业持谨慎乐观的心态,行业内效益会继续提升,水泥价格仍有小幅增长,市场或呈分化局面。同时江勋看好华东、湖北、广东东部、河南市场。

  1月9日,河南省公路工程局集团物资分公司2019年供应商年终答谢会在郑州市召开。中国水泥网总经理江勋受邀参会并做《水泥行业再创新高 2020风大浪险》的精彩报告。

  由于需求的增长,供给的紧张,2019年水泥行情再创新高,水泥行业整年利润预计超1800亿。价格方面,2019年水泥价格继续上涨,年均价459元/吨,同比上涨5%。2019年底,31省中21省市P.O42.5散装水泥价格超过400元/吨西藏、福建、江浙沪、河南、江西、广东8省超过540元/吨。

  究其原因,需求平台支撑与供给侧结构优化共振是主要因素,相关政策的加持,对严控水泥总产能,严控产能运转时间都有重要作用,且大企业兼并重组,小企业继续减少;熟料外销量减少,高品质水泥比重提升都影响着水泥价格的走势。

  以河南为例,河南是错峰限产最受益的地区,也是价格对需求反映最敏感的地区。目前依据河南及周边六省情况来看,河南水泥价格最高。另外,作为全国水泥大省的河南,与其周边六省合计熟料产能达到6.2亿吨,占全国的1/3。但河南省外南北面市场差异大,北面熟料产能利用率64%,北边的山西集中度低,产能过剩影响河南市场;南面熟料产能利用率高达95%,两者相差30个百分点,且北面采暖季错峰;南面采暖季正常生产。

  河南本省情况来看,区域内天瑞、中联、同力集中度达52.8%,剩余还有30家熟料企业,若需求下行时,竞争将十分激烈。河南2019年水泥产量较2014年下滑了33.5%,郑州、新乡、驻马店、南阳合计产量占全省的60%。此外,河南省水泥、商混的价格呈现出先跌后涨的特点,而碎石则继续上涨。

  最后,江勋对2020年的水泥行业发展提出了自己的预测。需求方面,在相关政治局会议“加强基础设施建设”的要求下,2020年基建有望加速,房地产新开工竣工增速差继续缩窄,施工面积增速预计回落,压制水泥需求增长,总体上水泥需求应是无忧。

  供给端方面,基于新投生产线产能明显增加,产能置换政策将进一步收严,水泥行业超低排放改造不可避免等因素综合影响,2021年行业风险可能会开始增加,2020年行业效益登顶后,2021年或开始回落。

  江勋强调,2020年应对水泥行业持谨慎乐观的心态,行业内效益会继续提升,水泥价格仍有小幅增长,市场或呈分化局面。同时江勋看好华东、湖北、广东东部、河南市场。

  江勋的精彩演讲赢得与会嘉宾的阵阵掌声。

  近年来,中国水泥网依托自身平台优势,积极推进水泥及上下游产业智能化升级,建立起以水泥价格指数、混凝土价格指数、熟料价格指数、矿粉价格指数、碎石价格指数以及水泥价格行情通等为主体的建材行业大数据体系。

  其中,水泥价格行情通已经覆盖全国34个省级行政区域,每日更新1500多家水泥企业,550多个水泥品牌的价格信息,直观展示各地P.O42.5散装均价及近十天涨跌趋势,被全国8800多家建筑施工单位作为首选水泥价格信息平台。目前,水泥价格行情通已经成为各大基建施工和房地产等水泥大宗采购的预决算参考依据,并且是国家工信部、国家发改委、国家市场监督管理总局、物价局等政府部门指定数据来源。

  水泥价格指数等相关指数自发布以来得到了政府部门、水泥企业、券商机构、财经媒体等相关业者的广泛欢迎,并成为政府政策、企业战略制定以及水泥市场及行业发展态势研究的重要依据。

  河南省公路工程局集团有限公司是主要从事公路交通基础设施投融资建设及施工的混合所有制企业,公司先后在河南和湖南、湖北、四川、新疆、广东、山东、甘肃等省内外兴建大、中型桥梁2600多座,修建各级公路里程达21300多公里。历年承建国内高速公路新建项目2288公里(省内1938公里,省外350公里),高速公路改扩建项目620公里(省内551公里,省外69公里),合计2908公里。

  近年来公司先后以BT模式承建了焦桐高速公路巩义至登封段、豫西山区高速路面工程、湖南岳常高速、郑开大道京港澳互通立交、郑州航空港南水北调14座桥梁,商登高速开封境段、郑州境段,连霍商丘至兰考段改扩建路面工程、京港澳漯河—驻马店—信阳改扩建路面工程、郑州机场高速公路改扩建项目、武陟至云台山等高速公路的建设,企业实现了由单一的施工管理向项目管理的跨越,开辟了河南省交通基础设施建设多元化投资新模式。

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Correlation

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.

2024-11-08 17:41:17

According to China Cement Market Data Center, cement prices in central and southern China rose steadily this week, pushing up 30-50 yuan/ton in Guangxi, and some low-priced enterprises reported an increase of 70 yuan/ton. This week, cement prices in eastern Hubei have gradually fallen back to the level before the last round of rise, and cement prices in many places in Hunan continue to rise.

2024-11-08 17:23:08

Driven by the rising price of raw materials, the price of concrete in central and southern China has risen slightly..

2024-11-08 15:49:01

On the 5th, some major manufacturers in the province pushed up the price of cement by 50 yuan/ton.

2024-11-06 17:29:51

In October, with the gradual decline of the national temperature, the northern project came to an end, and there was a small-scale rush to work in some areas, while the southern construction activities increased, the demand warmed up, and the shipment volume increased slightly. On the supply side, a number of sand and gravel aggregate projects have been successfully put into operation, production capacity has been released rapidly, sand and gravel prices have stopped falling slightly, and have entered a narrow range of volatility.

2024-11-05 11:42:36

According to China Cement Market Data Center News, in the central and southern regions, this week, Guangdong Pearl River Delta and Hainan regions continue to push up the cement price by 30-60 yuan/ton, and the implementation will wait and see; Guangxi region is planning to push up the cement price by 30-50 yuan/ton. After the two lakes region experienced many times of pushing up, the price was temporarily stable this week.

2024-11-01 17:35:36

Cement prices in central and southern China are generally rising, and concrete prices may rise..

2024-11-01 15:49:36

Recently, the domestic temperature has dropped, local demand has dropped compared with the previous period, and the price of concrete market is mainly in a narrow range. From October 24 to October 30, the national concrete price index closed at 112.12 points, down 0.02% annually and 10.33% year-on-year.

2024-11-01 01:06:33

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

Recently, the construction in the south is relatively active, the local market demand is warming up, coupled with the increasing pressure on the cost side, the market price trend is stable and small. From October 17 to October 23, the national concrete price index closed at 112.14 points, down 0.02% annually and 10.65% year-on-year.

2024-10-25 17:29:24

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the Pearl River Delta in central and southern Guangdong is planning to continue to push up cement prices by 30-50 yuan/ton around the end of the month, and the Guangxi region is temporarily stable. Cement prices in Hunan and Hubei continued to rise by 30-50 yuan/ton.

2024-10-25 17:23:23

The pressure of market competition in East China is greater, and the rise in concrete prices is fatigue..

2024-10-25 16:49:34

Prices of raw materials in central and southern China continue to rise, and the concrete market has not yet fluctuated significantly..

2024-10-25 15:28:18

On October 24, the "2024 China Cement Double Carbon Conference and the 12th Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference" was held in Wuhu, Anhui Province. Gao Dengbang, President of China Cement Association, Zhu Shengli, General Manager of Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd., Lv Zhijian, President of Xinjiang Building Material Industry Association, Ma Weiping, Chairman of OCC, Jiang Dehong, Vice President and Chief Engineer of Tianshan Materials Co., Ltd., Li Jian, Associate Researcher of Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences, Fan Yueming, Professor of South China University of Technology, Zhuge Wenda, Chairman of Leishan Cement Co., Ltd., Century Xinfeng, Hubei, Yan Haochun, Technical Director of China National Inspection and Testing Holding Group and General Manager of Certification and Evaluation Center.

2024-10-24 16:55:38

With the improvement of weather conditions, the domestic market demand has improved as a whole in the near future, but it is still difficult to reach the peak season level in previous years. Concrete enterprises mainly ship at stable prices, and there are still some downward adjustments. From October 10 to October 16, the national concrete price index closed at 112.16 points, down 0.59% annually and 10.64% year-on-year.

2024-10-18 17:28:46

Raw material prices continued to rise, and concrete prices in the central and southern markets were mixed..

2024-10-18 17:14:14

After the National Day, the domestic concrete market demand rebounded slightly, but the total amount is still relatively weak, concrete enterprises are mainly shipping at stable prices, and have not yet followed the rise of raw materials. From October 3 to October 9, the national concrete price index closed at 112.82 points, in line with the National Day holiday, with a year-on-year decline of 10.21%.

2024-10-12 17:25:54

According to China Cement Market Data Center, cement prices in central and southern Guangdong, western Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta region will be raised by 20-30 yuan/ton this week, and cement prices in Guangxi will also be raised. The Hubei region continued to push up 30-50 yuan/ton, the overall market in Hunan was stable and small, and the Yueyang region was notified to rise.

2024-10-12 17:23:19

Raw material prices pushed up, and concrete prices in the central and southern markets were mixed..

2024-10-12 15:45:27

After the National Day holiday, the actual transaction price of some major manufacturers in the province dropped by about 30 yuan..

2024-10-10 17:07:43

Recently, the domestic market demand in some areas has improved slightly compared with the previous period, but the overall situation is still weaker than same period in history, and the price of concrete remains stable and weak. From September 19 to September 25, the national concrete price index closed at 112.82 points, down 0.10% annually and 10.45% year-on-year.

2024-09-27 17:57:56

Demand declined, the contradiction between supply and demand intensified, and the domestic cement market as a whole was depressed in the first half of the year. However, from a regional perspective, the price situation in the northern region is relatively good, especially in Xinjiang, the three eastern provinces, eastern Mongolia and Hebei, where cement prices are at a relatively high level. Taking Hebei as an example, the big data of China Cement Network show that the overall cement market in Hebei has shown a steady upward trend since this year, and the development trend of the industry is relatively stable. Local cement enterprises said that at present, the bulk ex-factory price of Hebei P.O42.5 cement is basically maintained at 310-330 yuan/ton. "Although it can not be compared with the peak period, in the current industry environment, it has been

2024-09-27 17:30:26

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong in the central and southern regions is general, while the Guangxi region is stable and declining. Eastern Hubei and other regions plan to push up the price of cement by 30 yuan/ton again. Driven by the price increase in eastern Hubei, individual market prices in Hunan have been notified to rise again.

2024-09-27 16:48:15

Market demand has not improved, and concrete prices in some parts of central and southern China have declined slightly..

2024-09-27 16:04:01

Recently, the local weather conditions in China are not good, the recovery of market demand is insufficient, the price of concrete is mainly stable, and the local pressure is falling. From September 12 to September 18, the national concrete price index closed at 112.93 points, down 0.21% annually and 10.83% year-on-year.

2024-09-20 17:55:34

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, cement prices in the Pearl River Delta market in central and southern Guangdong are planned to stop falling and rise again, while prices in individual markets in Guangxi have experienced a second round of decline. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, the range of price increases in the two lakes areas has been extended to the whole province, pushing up by about 30 yuan/ton. Since the 10th, some major manufacturers in Henan have pushed up the price of cement by 30 yuan/ton, but the actual implementation is not ideal, some enterprises have not implemented in place, and the quotation remains at the level before the rise.

2024-09-20 17:10:16

The price of raw materials has been pushed up, and the price of concrete in the central and southern markets has been temporarily stable.

2024-09-20 16:36:23

Recently, the domestic market demand has recovered slightly compared with the previous period, but the overall level is still significantly lower than same period in previous years, and the price of concrete before the Mid-Autumn Festival is mainly a smooth transition. From September 5th to September 11th, the national concrete price index closed at 113.17 points, and the ring ratio remained stable, with a year-on-year decline of 10.81%.

2024-09-14 19:27:38

The price of raw materials has been pushed up one after another, and the price of concrete in the central and southern markets may rise slightly..

2024-09-14 14:43:45

Recently, the price of raw materials has shown an upward trend again, but due to the lack of new orders in the concrete market and the fierce competition among enterprises, the focus of transactions continues to decline steadily. From August 29 to September 4, the national concrete price index closed at 113.17 points, down 0.45% annually and 11.09% year-on-year.

2024-09-06 17:22:16

The price of raw materials is declining, and the price of concrete in the central and southern markets is running steadily and weakly.

2024-09-06 15:58:01

Most regions in China are affected by capital factors, lack of construction increment downstream, no improvement in concrete market demand, and downward pressure on local quotations. From August 22 to August 28, the national concrete price index closed at 113.68 points, down 0.42% annually and 11.12% year-on-year.

2024-08-30 17:31:27

Since the 29th, some major manufacturers in the province have resumed raising the price of cement by 50 yuan/ton, but the actual implementation range is about 20-30 yuan/ton.

2024-08-30 17:12:42

Market demand in central and southern China is general, and concrete prices are weak..

2024-08-30 16:41:14

Domestic high temperature rain weather has not yet subsided, downstream construction activity is still low, the concrete market is relatively flat, and the market price is stable. From August 15 to August 21, the national concrete price index closed at 114.16 points, down 0.28% annually and 11.40% year-on-year.

2024-08-23 17:35:52

Affected by the price of raw materials, the price of concrete in the central and southern markets is mixed..

2024-08-23 15:33:03

Domestic construction conditions have not improved significantly, coupled with the small number of new key projects, the market demand is still relatively low, and the price of concrete has fallen more or risen less. From August 8 to August 14, the national concrete price index closed at 114.48 points, down 0.33% annually and 11.69% year-on-year.

2024-08-17 10:46:53

Driven by the rising price of raw materials, the price of concrete in the central and southern markets is stable and small..

2024-08-16 17:03:31

The domestic market continued to be controlled by the hot and rainy weather, the market demand was weak, the price of concrete continued to fall steadily, and the decline in Sichuan and Chongqing was relatively large. From August 1st to August 7th, the national concrete price index closed at 114.86 points, down 0.43% from the previous month.

2024-08-09 18:09:08

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of the rebound in cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region of central and southern Guangdong is not optimistic, and the Guangxi region is tepid. The market prices of the two lakes are basically stable, and there is a decline in some areas. Leading enterprises in Guangdong try to restore the price of cement, but under the influence of high temperature weather, the actual effect is not good. The rain weather in Guangxi is decreasing, the market demand is limited, the price is stable, and the local market is falling. Cement prices in Hubei are stable, and high temperatures affect demand. The Hunan area continues the high temperature, the demand is weak, the partial price falls. Affected by rainfall, the market demand in Henan is not good, and the price is stable.

2024-08-09 17:12:17

High temperature off-season, the price of concrete in the central and southern market is mainly weak and stable..

2024-08-09 16:05:25

Domestic construction conditions have not been significantly improved, coupled with insufficient new projects in most regions, the concrete market is still flat. From July 25th to July 31st, the national concrete price index closed at 115.36 points, down 0.59% from the previous month.

2024-08-02 17:29:53

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong in central and southern China has recovered by 10-15 yuan/ton, and the quotation in Guangxi is temporarily stable. Prices in some areas of the two lakes have fallen in the early stage, and the overall market is mainly stable this week.

2024-08-02 17:16:26

High temperature off-season, the price of concrete in the central and southern market is mainly weak and stable..

2024-08-02 16:44:53

Looking forward to the second half of 2024, we believe that the demand for cement will improve compared with the first half of the year, and the price will continue to rebound. However, under the constraints of weak demand and serious overcapacity, the repair of cement price is limited. Throughout the year, cement demand will face

2024-08-01 09:19:52

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.