[调研]江苏市场:群雄角逐的第一消费大省

2015-02-01 07:23:55

作为全国第一水泥消费大省的江苏,自2014年年初以来,同样受地方房地产建设缩水、基建开工不足的影响,市场需求超预期收缩,区域水泥行情打破传统规律运行。此外,省内有国企、民营、外资三股势力同台竞争,形成了独特的产业竞争格局。为此,笔者近期深入江苏市场,呈现当前的区域供需格局与市场竞争态势,为行业或企业的未来发展决策作参考。

  江苏市场是长三角水泥市场最为重要的板块,其北接山东,西连安徽,东南与上海、浙江接壤。江苏境内有京杭大运河及长江贯穿其中,为各地水泥的互通提供了便利条件,这使得其成为一个完全开放的水泥市场。
  作为全国第一水泥消费大省的江苏,自2014年年初以来,同样受地方房地产建设缩水、基建开工不足的影响,市场需求超预期收缩,区域水泥行情打破传统规律运行,尤其是四季度P.O 42.5散装水泥价格累计涨幅仅为去年同期的1/4,且过早出现下滑态势,让企业手足无措。此外,省内有国企、民营、外资三股势力同台竞争,形成了独特的产业竞争格局。为此,笔者近期深入苏南、苏中等地区市场进行实地调研,又通过电话、邮件等多种形成采访了苏北龙头企业,以了解当前区域市场现状,摸清一些主要水泥生产企业与消费市场,以呈现当前的区域供需格局与市场竞争态势,为行业或企业的未来发展决策作参考。

一、江苏水泥市场整体发展状况
1.1、需求:全国第一消费大省,增速已降至个位数
  江苏省地处东部沿海中心,地理位置优越,是我国的经济大省,GDP和固定资产投资均占到全国总量近1/10,综合经济实力在全国一直处于前列,已步入“中上等”发达国家水平。江苏与上海、浙江、安徽共同构成的长江三角洲城市群已成为国际6大世界级城市群之一。为支持地区经济建设和发展,江苏省水泥工业应声而起,水泥产量由1997年的不足4000万吨快速增至2013年的1.80亿吨,年均复合增长率为10.05%,自2009年以来产量跃居全国第一的宝座后蝉联至今,人均水泥产量亦由1997年的0.54吨提升至2013年的2.27吨,成为名副其实的全国水泥第一大省。预计今年全年产量超过1.9亿吨。与同处华东区域经济发达的浙江、山东相比,从2007年起三省水泥产量增速均进入中低速增长阶段,但江苏增速要高于浙江、山东两省,低于经济发展相对迟缓的安徽省增速。今年江苏全年水泥产量增速约在3%左右,为四省中表现相对最好的。

图1:自2009年全省水泥产量居全国首位,但增速已降至个位数

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

  地区水泥消费量与其固定资产投资密切相关,江苏省在2002至2013年的十余年间,全省固定资产投资以20%左右增速高投入,极大地促进了全省各地的水泥消费。据实地调研和行业协会测算,当前江苏全省年水泥消费需求约在1.75-1.85亿吨左右。从苏南、苏中及苏北三地区来看,由于苏南地区(南京、镇江、常州、无锡、苏州)巨大的经济规模和消费潜力,使得该地区成为全省核心消费市场,区域消费总量占全省比重超过40%;苏北地区(徐州、连云港、淮安、盐城、宿迁)因人口众多、幅员辽阔,经济飞速增长,地区水泥消费总量超过在6000万吨,占全省比重约在35%-38%;仅含扬州、泰州、南通三市的苏中地区消费总量比重就只有20%左右。从具体城市的消费能力来看,苏州为全省最大的水泥消费市场,年消费量达2300万吨;南京、无锡、南通、徐州以及盐城的年水泥消费量也不俗,在1400-1800万吨不等;相对而言,镇江、常州、扬州、淮安等地的年消费量较小,均不足1000万吨。
  从当地市场消费主体来看,水泥需求客户主要为下游搅拌站,也有部分属于重点工程客户,小部分为农村自建房屋的消费者。搅拌站消费水泥生产混凝土产品,主要供向一些市政基建工程以及房地产项目,今年受地区房地产供给相对过剩影响,房地产水泥需求至少下滑3、4成以上,城市公共基础建设成为了消费支撑。苏北地区的民建市场消费相对良好,当地企业有20%~30%的产品为32.5级低标号水泥(远高于苏南地区不足10%的比例),销往农村市场以及低端建筑工程需求。

图2:2013年江苏各地水泥销量情况

数据来源:中国水泥研究院

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Correlation

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