On March 14, the 14th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony hosted by China Cement Network was grandly held in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province. The theme of the Summit was: New Cycle Anti-Involution Breakthrough. In his speech, Liu Zonghu, member of the Party Committee and vice president
of Tianshan Materials, said that in the second half of last year, the full-caliber output fell by 11.0% compared with the same period last year. Considering the inertia of demand and the sharp decline of new projects, combined with 1-2 demand performances, it is expected that the demand decline will reach double digits throughout the year. Faced with such a comprehensive, rapid, substantial and irreversible unilateral demand downturn, the survival and development of the industry can only start from the supply side, which is the premise and basis for us to analyze the industry situation, and we need to reach a consensus on this. For the high-quality development of the
industry, Liu Zonghu put forward five suggestions: first, strengthen the consensus of "anti-involution" to transmit positive energy for the development of the industry; second, strengthen the "double control" of daily output and off-peak days to promote the rebalancing of production and marketing; third, strengthen cross-market coordination to promote cross-regional linkage, off-peak linkage and re-pricing; The fourth is to improve the transparency of price policy and reduce the misjudgment of decision-making. The fifth is to innovate the mode of cooperation and accelerate the promotion of concentration and capacity reduction.
The following is the full text of the speech:
Dear colleagues,
in the critical period when the whole country is actively implementing the spirit of the two sessions, I would like to thank China Cement Network for carefully organizing this summit. First of all, on behalf of Tianshan Materials, I would like to express my warm congratulations on the opening of the 14th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony! China Cement Network positioned the theme of the conference as "New Cycle Anti-involution Breakthrough", which interpreted the challenges of the new cycle, and also demonstrated the industry's determination to fight against involution and the pursuit of breakthroughs, which is the industry's practical action to implement the requirements of the central government's "comprehensive rectification of involution competition". I would like to take this opportunity to express my views in two aspects.
1. Market outlook
for 2025 According to the data of the Bureau of Statistics, the national cement output in 2024 will decrease by 9.5% compared with the same period last year, but from the actual number of days of kiln shutdown and everyone's personal experience, the actual demand decline may increase by 2-3 points. The industry had generally predicted a 5% -8% year-on-year decline in demand this year, but from the latest situation, the actual decline may be even greater. In the second half of last year, the full-caliber output decreased by 11.0% compared with the same period last year. Considering the inertia of demand and the sharp decline of new projects, combined with the demand performance of 1-2 shares, it is expected that the annual demand decline will reach double digits. Faced with such a comprehensive, rapid, substantial and irreversible unilateral demand downturn, the survival and development of the industry can only start from the supply side, which is the premise and basis for us to analyze the industry situation, and we need to reach a consensus on this.
2. Five suggestions
for the high-quality development of the industry 1. Strengthen the consensus of "anti-involution" and transmit positive energy
for the development of the industry. On March 5, General Secretary Xi Jinping, participating in the deliberations of the Jiangsu delegation of the two sessions, stressed that we should take the initiative to break the "involution" competition. In his Report on the Work of the Government, the Prime Minister of Li Qiang pointed out that "involution" competition should be comprehensively rectified. On February 25, the General Administration of Market Supervision organized a symposium on fair competition among some enterprises, which sent a signal to intensify efforts to rectify the serious competition in photovoltaic, e-commerce, automobile and other industries. It is expected that in 2025, the relevant departments of the state will intensify inspection and investigation, handling of reporting clues and joint law enforcement, and seriously deal with such phenomena as over-designed production capacity, low-price dumping, excessive energy consumption and emissions in the cement industry. We should earnestly implement the policy requirements, take a clear-cut stand against industry involution, actively transmit positive energy in daily communication and publicity, resolutely oppose misinterpreting the industry's steady growth efforts and shaking the industry's confidence in development, and make more contributions to the industry's short-term self-help and long-term high-quality development.
2. Strengthen the "double control" of daily output and peak staggering days, promote the rebalancing
of production and marketing, peak staggering is the basis of price recovery, and price recovery is the purpose of peak staggering. We should vigorously promote the "double control" of daily output and peak staggering days, and constantly consolidate the foundation of stabilizing market prices. First, we should conscientiously implement the production capacity according to the norms, especially large enterprises should take the lead and play a good exemplary role. Second, we should do a good job in demand estimation and accurate peak staggering, and timely adjust the peak staggering scheme in off-peak season according to the change of demand, so as to achieve the rebalancing of production and marketing. The third is to strengthen the undifferentiated rigid peak staggering. We call on the industry to respect and implement the peak staggering policy formulated by the two offices, and strive to achieve the same opening and stopping, monthly clearance and monthly closure on the basis of the "two offices" policy.
3. Strengthen cross-market coordination and promote cross-regional linkage, peak staggering and price recovery
. With the widening of regional price differentiation, the current cross-regional mobile sales volume has increased. Some cross-market areas do not communicate enough and guard against each other when re-pricing, and finally turn the cross-market into a price depression, even dragging down the price of the hinterland core area. In some neighboring provinces, the difference of peak staggering days is too large, and the flexibility and pace of implementation are not uniform, which seriously undermines the basis of mutual trust in the industry. We suggest that a joint working group be set up in the cross-market to promote consensus among relevant enterprises on peak staggering arrangements, gradually narrow regional differences, and promote cross-regional linkage re-pricing on the basis of cross-regional linkage peak staggering. Enterprises should exercise restraint in cross-regional sales, especially in areas with fewer off-peak days, they should strictly control the cross-regional export of cement clinker , and work together to protect the hard-won achievements of industrial ecological construction in other regions.
4. To improve the transparency of price policy and reduce the misjudgment
of decision-making, all enterprises make market decision-making judgments based on the information collected from the market, but because of the different standpoints, perspectives and degrees of information analysis of information feedback channels, the reliability and accuracy of information are quite different. It is suggested that the industry should normalize the joint office at all levels and make it practical and detailed, so as to filter out the misjudgments caused by information asymmetry to the greatest extent. At the same time, we call on the industry to show the same determination as solving the problem of cement credit sales in that year, to control or even cancel the traditional practices of rebate discount, one-household-one-price and retrospective pricing from the source, and to reduce the misjudgment of decision-making by improving price transparency.
5. Innovating the cooperation mode, accelerating the promotion of concentration and capacity
removal from 2025, it is suggested that small regions should be taken as pilot projects to explore new modes of concentration promotion through docking of large and small kilns, equity replacement of production lines, cross-share-holding and trusteeship operation; By strictly implementing the policy of capacity replacement and standardizing production capacity, speeding up the implementation of low-carbon transformation fund projects, and promoting the implementation of stricter energy consumption and environmental protection standards, we will explore new samples of capacity removal and constantly improve the supply and demand structure. China Cement Network can also give full play to its platform advantages, bridge the innovation and cooperation of enterprises, and provide more powerful support for promoting industry concentration and capacity reduction.
Dear colleagues, the industry has to handle its own affairs. All of you here are the backbone of the development of the industry. The healthy development of the industry is our common responsibility. The cement industry is standing at the juncture of the transformation of new and old kinetic energy. Let's take this summit as an opportunity to gather consensus, strengthen confidence and pool strength, make every effort to stabilize the industry's ecological base, lay a solid foundation for this year's harvest with a good start, and jointly write a new chapter of high-quality development of the industry!
Finally, I wish the conference a complete success! I wish you all good health! Thank you!
浙公网安备33010802003254号