水泥:只有“打”出来的天下 没有“让”出来的利益!

2019-11-11 09:20:14

看似行情大好的水泥行业,在相对平静的水面下仍然是暗流涌动。从2016年的“寒冬”破冰而来,在利润不断攀升的背景下,大家似乎已经渐渐遗忘了以往需求惨淡下的“你死我活”,用一派表面平和的景象维持着行业当前局面。

  日前,多家水泥企业发布三季度业绩报告,不出意外,全部喜讯……其中,行业龙头企业之一的海螺水泥在三季报中表示,2019年前三季度,海螺水泥实现营业收入破千亿,达到1107.56亿元,同比增长42.37%;归属于上市公司股东净利润238.16亿元,同比增长14.96%。前三季度基本每股收益为4.49元,同比增长14.96%。

  实际上,近年来国内水泥价格持续高涨,据中国水泥网数据显示,从2016年2月到目前全国水泥价格指数上涨73,涨幅达到94%左右。在利润方面,1-9月,全国水泥行业实现营业收入7199亿元,同比增长14.3%,比整个工业增速高9.8个百分点,利润总额1318亿元,同比增长25.3%,比整个工业增速高27.4个百分点。

  然而,看似行情大好的水泥行业,在相对平静的水面下仍然是暗流涌动。从2016年的“寒冬”破冰而来,在利润不断攀升的背景下,大家似乎已经渐渐遗忘了以往需求惨淡下的“你死我活”,用一派表面平和的景象维持着行业当前局面。

  行业产能严重过剩,涨价是否可持续?

  是强劲的市场需求带动了水泥价格的上涨,创造利润新高吗?

  恰恰相反,水泥行业漂亮的成绩单背后,是严重的产能过剩问题。资料显示,水泥的全国平均产能利用率约在66%左右,处于历史最低位,有些地区的产能利用率甚至只有30%。

  在产能过剩严重背景下,水泥价格的不断上涨归因于几个方面:一是错峰生产常态化,错峰生产本意是为了避免采暖期水泥生产污染物与采暖锅炉排放叠加,减轻大气污染问题,但目前某些地区错峰生产很大程度上已心知肚明成为了当地调节供需关系的有效手段。二是经历了前些年的行业大低谷之后,行业新秩序正在逐步建立,企业间竞合关系逐步形成,市场稳定性正在增强。三是环保限产,伴随着蓝天保卫战、环保督察等一系列环保政策的推进,要求水泥企业在特定时间内停产或者进行环保改造,水泥供给受限,企业运营成本随之增加。这种情形下,企业会通过涨价来转嫁成本。

  当前的水泥是否具有可持续性,影响价格稳定的痛点是什么?

  以贵州为例,由于贵州往年基建进度快,投资大,一定程度上提前消耗了水泥需求潜力。进入2019年以来,随着扶贫攻坚工作的逐步收尾,贵州水泥需求步入下行周期,甚至被认为已步入东北断崖式下滑的后尘,水泥价格也一蹶不振。

  此外,贵州经济发展水平偏低,也导致水泥需求后续缺少支撑,加之产能严重过剩,今年以来贵州水泥行情几乎呈现一路下滑态势。相关数据显示:今年1-9月份贵州全省综合销量约7050万吨(其中包含1000万吨省外输出销量),产能利用率为65.7%,省内需求对产能使用率为56.4%,销量同比下滑10%,市场需求同比下滑26%。

  与全国水泥普涨截然相反的是贵州区域日前再现年内最低价水泥——180元/吨。较此前价格直降100元/吨左右,引起各方人士的普遍关注。而此次降价据悉是贵州区域一龙头企业采取不跟随其他企业一同涨跌的措施,意欲争夺更多市场份额。

  市场需求的不足,产能的严重过剩,叠加区域企业竞合关系变化,贵州区域的水泥价格大跌似乎在情理之中。这也给全国水泥行业敲响警钟,产能过剩问题就像一颗足以打破市场格局的定时炸弹,若不能从根本上解决,行业利润恐怕难以保持高增长。

  水泥企业何去何从?

  水泥行情大好给了竞争力相对较差的水泥企业一棵救命稻草,部分前些年已经停产或濒临停产的企业重新焕发生机,在当前利润日益增高的情况下也分得一杯羹。

  但需要指出的是,这些企业的获利某种程度上更像是龙头企业致力于提升行业效益后的“施舍”,在市场需求尚未断崖前形成的竞合关系让这些企业获利颇丰,但倘若市场需求的下滑,以及产能过剩的严峻性已经无法通过水泥价格的上涨来转移困境,利益面前,这些竞争力较差的企业是否能安然无恙?

  而另一方面,在目前的市场环境下,这些竞争力较差的企业之所以能够赚钱,主要在于其大量消耗自然环境资源,本质上是不公平竞争。随着国家和地区政府对于环保指标的监管日益严苛,这些企业在技术改进和资金投入方面会面临巨大的威胁和挑战,在市场份额竞争中将失去自己的优势。

  综上,笔者认为,在当前行情形势大好,各大水泥龙头企业纷纷通过产能置换新建、扩建竞争力更强的水泥熟料生产线之际,那些竞争力相对较弱的水泥企业或可通过收购、重组等方式退出水泥行业,在竞争还没有“头破血流”之前,将自己“卖出”好价钱不失为企业战略转型的一种有效途径。

  同时,水泥行业呈周期性发展,未来可能会有一个滑坡期,所以水泥企业更应眼光长远,提前布局,紧握当下利润稳上升的良好形势,在市场洗牌前提高自己的核心竞争力。一是要下足本钱,提升自身的技术装备,实现多功能并向高端高质量发展;二是深化去产能工作,推进企业超低排放、绿色矿山建设,以及绿色化、智能化改造等,在市场“寒冬”到来之前切实提高自己的竞争力。

  天下熙熙皆为利来,天下攘攘皆为利往。任何行业在市场经济面前,只有“打”出来的天下,没有“让”出来的利益!行业的趋好不在于利润上升后的“共同富裕”,而在于行业的成长是否符合绿色、公平,以及高质量的发展核心。

  水泥同仁们!真的应该居安思危了!

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Correlation

Recently, the overall domestic demand has declined steadily, coupled with the weakening of local cost support, and the price of concrete has been stable and small. From November 14 to November 20, the national concrete price index closed at 112.35 points, down 0.13% annually and 10.08% year-on-year.

2024-11-22 18:03:03

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the price of cement in Northwest China is mainly stable. In the middle of November, the temperature in Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang has dropped significantly, the market demand in some areas has come to an end, the impact of price changes on the market is limited, and there is no significant change in the external quotation of leading enterprises this week.

2024-11-22 17:32:34

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of the early push up in the central and southern regions is not up to expectations. During the week, cement prices in many places in Guangdong generally began a new round of increase, and the quotation in Guangxi was stable and small. This week, the implementation of the push up in Hunan and Hubei is not ideal.

2024-11-22 17:30:12

According to the China Cement Market Data Center News, the price of cement in Sichuan, southwest China, is mixed; Yunnan is stable as a whole. Chongqing area has been pushing up since November, according to the feedback from leading enterprises, the price is relatively stable after the rise, and the enterprises that did not rise in place in the early stage have also increased by 20-30 yuan/ton in the near future.

2024-11-22 17:27:34

China Cement Network Market Data Center News: Southwest Market Demand Performance in general, mainly stable.

2024-11-22 17:26:33

At the end of winter in the northeast concrete market, the demand is weak and the price is stable.

2024-11-22 17:21:53

Demand declines year on year, concrete prices are weak and stable..

2024-11-22 16:48:10

The price of concrete in North China declined slightly.

2024-11-22 16:27:54

In the first three quarters of 2024, the overall performance of 18 listed companies continued to be poor, with almost all revenues declining, all profits of profitable enterprises declining, and nearly half of them falling into a loss state.

2024-11-22 16:15:43

Concrete prices in central and southern China are mainly stable, and some regions are trying to rise..

2024-11-22 16:11:29

Since the 21st, some major manufacturers in Zhanjiang, Maoming, Yangjiang and Yunfu in western Guangdong have again notified an increase in cement prices by 30 yuan/ton, and the specific implementation remains to be observed.

2024-11-21 11:31:50

Since the 20th, some major enterprises in Qingyuan, Shaoguan, Heyuan and other places in northern Guangdong have again notified the increase of cement prices by about 30 yuan/ton, and the specific implementation remains to be observed.

2024-11-20 13:32:29

While seeing the success of the current price rise, the industry should also think about how to make a good start next year and how to develop steadily in the future. The author believes that in the current situation, active production control is the key to maintain a good situation in the cement industry. If production control can not be effectively implemented, even if the cement price is maintained at a relatively reasonable position at the end of this year, the cement price will still be difficult to maintain in the face of severe supply and demand situation after the beginning of next year.

2024-11-20 09:45:47

According to China Cement Network Market Data Center news, Fujian cement prices in East China once again pushed up, while the rest of the region was mainly stable in the week. This week, the Yangtze River Delta region is dominated by rainy weather, and the overall market demand is relatively stable, but some leading enterprises in the region still insist on selling at high prices, resulting in sales hovering at a low level.

2024-11-15 17:43:44

Recently, the concrete market demand has weakened, coupled with the cost-side support has not been further strengthened, enterprises are mainly shipping at stable prices, with a slight increase in individual regions. From November 7 to November 13, the national concrete price index closed at 112.50 points, up 0.03% annually and down 10.07% year-on-year.

2024-11-15 17:37:41

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, cement prices in central and southern China rose by about 20-30 yuan/ton in a large area this week, while those in Guangxi were temporarily stable after the rise. This week, the price of cement in Hunan was pushed up again, and the price of cement in eastern Hubei was planned to be raised again by about 30 yuan/ton in order to restore the previous target.

2024-11-15 17:36:48

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price in Chongqing and Northeast Chongqing in the southwest region has risen by 30 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; the price in Changdu, the Xizang, has risen by 50 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Sichuan and Yunnan maintain stable operation.

2024-11-15 17:34:42

China Cement Network Market Data Center News: raw materials rose, the southwest region to promote a small increase in concrete prices.

2024-11-15 16:53:10

This week, the demand is insufficient, and the price of concrete is stable.

2024-11-15 16:48:55

The demand and price of concrete in North China are relatively stable.

2024-11-15 16:45:50

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: This week, the market in the northwest region is mainly stable.

2024-11-15 16:34:22

The demand in Northeast China is coming to an end, and the winter construction cost will be increased.

2024-11-15 16:31:48

There is no big change in the price of concrete in central and southern China.

2024-11-15 16:22:55

At present, the difficulties faced by the cement industry are temporary. We hope that the cement workers can work hard, dare to be the first, do their work well in a down-to-earth manner, contribute to the local economic development, and realize the value of the industry with achievements, contributions and status.

2024-11-15 10:25:08

Some major enterprises in Guangdong plan to raise the price of cement by about 30 yuan/ton in the Pearl River Delta market from the 15th.

2024-11-14 17:01:12

Shaanxi Shangluo cement price notice up 30 yuan/ton..

2024-11-14 14:30:46

Enterprises in Hunan plan to raise the price of cement by 50 yuan/ton in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan, Chenzhou and other places from the 15th, and the implementation remains to be observed..

2024-11-14 14:20:40

Sincerely hope that colleagues, the future of the cement industry where to go, carry out a big discussion within the industry, brainstorm, and work together to break the situation!

2024-11-13 15:58:52

On the 13th, some major enterprises in Ningxia took the lead in notifying the increase of cement price by 10 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-11-13 15:18:11

Some major enterprises in eastern Guangdong plan to raise cement prices by 20 yuan/ton from the 13th.

2024-11-12 16:55:08

Some major enterprises in Fujian plan to raise cement prices by about 20 yuan/ton in Xiamen, Zhangzhou and Longyan from the 13th.

2024-11-12 16:38:20

Shaanxi Guanzhong area cement price notice up 30 yuan/ton..

2024-11-12 15:39:16

On the 9th, major manufacturers in Zhanjiang, Maoming, Yangjiang and Yunfu in western Guangdong followed up the notice to raise the cement price by about 30-35 yuan/ton.

2024-11-11 11:13:08

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.

2024-11-08 17:41:17

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the overall market demand in Northwest China has declined, some kilns have been shut down, and most prices are stable. For example, the cement market demand in Gansu is weak at present, especially in Lanzhou and its surrounding areas, the inventory of some manufacturers is not high.

2024-11-08 17:27:44

According to China Cement Market Data Center, cement prices in central and southern China rose steadily this week, pushing up 30-50 yuan/ton in Guangxi, and some low-priced enterprises reported an increase of 70 yuan/ton. This week, cement prices in eastern Hubei have gradually fallen back to the level before the last round of rise, and cement prices in many places in Hunan continue to rise.

2024-11-08 17:23:08

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in Chongqing in the southwest region is pushed up by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the implementation is to be observed; the price in Zhaotong in Yunnan is pushed up by 50 yuan/ton, and the implementation is to be observed; the price in Nanchong, Guang'an and Suining in Sichuan is pushed up by 50 yuan/ton, and the price in Yibin and Luzhou is partially dropped.

2024-11-08 17:19:35

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: Raw Materials Rise, Concrete Prices in Southwest China May Be Raised

2024-11-08 17:11:43

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: The market demand has weakened, and the price of commercial mixing in the northwest region has stabilized.

2024-11-08 17:02:18

The demand for concrete in North China is weak.

2024-11-08 16:18:52

Driven by the rising price of raw materials, the price of concrete in central and southern China has risen slightly..

2024-11-08 15:49:01

The weather is fine, the demand has recovered slightly, and the price of concrete is stable.

2024-11-08 15:25:26

On November 22, the 4th International New Material Industry Conference was held in Bengbu, Anhui Province, jointly sponsored by the People's Government of Anhui Province, the International Glass Association, China Building Material Group Co., Ltd. and China Baowu Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. The theme of this conference is "New Technology". New materials New Future. Li Zhong, Vice Governor of Anhui Province, delivered a speech and announced the opening ceremony. Zhou Yuxian, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of China Building Material Group, and Alicia Duran, Chairman of the 26th International Glass Association and Chairman of the Organizing Committee of the United Nations International Year of Glass, attended the conference and delivered speeches. Seventeen academicians, including Gan Yong and Peng Shou, as well as relevant leaders and guests from provinces, cities, universities and enterprises, attended the meeting.