水泥:只有“打”出来的天下 没有“让”出来的利益!

2019-11-11 09:20:14

看似行情大好的水泥行业,在相对平静的水面下仍然是暗流涌动。从2016年的“寒冬”破冰而来,在利润不断攀升的背景下,大家似乎已经渐渐遗忘了以往需求惨淡下的“你死我活”,用一派表面平和的景象维持着行业当前局面。

  日前,多家水泥企业发布三季度业绩报告,不出意外,全部喜讯……其中,行业龙头企业之一的海螺水泥在三季报中表示,2019年前三季度,海螺水泥实现营业收入破千亿,达到1107.56亿元,同比增长42.37%;归属于上市公司股东净利润238.16亿元,同比增长14.96%。前三季度基本每股收益为4.49元,同比增长14.96%。

  实际上,近年来国内水泥价格持续高涨,据中国水泥网数据显示,从2016年2月到目前全国水泥价格指数上涨73,涨幅达到94%左右。在利润方面,1-9月,全国水泥行业实现营业收入7199亿元,同比增长14.3%,比整个工业增速高9.8个百分点,利润总额1318亿元,同比增长25.3%,比整个工业增速高27.4个百分点。

  然而,看似行情大好的水泥行业,在相对平静的水面下仍然是暗流涌动。从2016年的“寒冬”破冰而来,在利润不断攀升的背景下,大家似乎已经渐渐遗忘了以往需求惨淡下的“你死我活”,用一派表面平和的景象维持着行业当前局面。

  行业产能严重过剩,涨价是否可持续?

  是强劲的市场需求带动了水泥价格的上涨,创造利润新高吗?

  恰恰相反,水泥行业漂亮的成绩单背后,是严重的产能过剩问题。资料显示,水泥的全国平均产能利用率约在66%左右,处于历史最低位,有些地区的产能利用率甚至只有30%。

  在产能过剩严重背景下,水泥价格的不断上涨归因于几个方面:一是错峰生产常态化,错峰生产本意是为了避免采暖期水泥生产污染物与采暖锅炉排放叠加,减轻大气污染问题,但目前某些地区错峰生产很大程度上已心知肚明成为了当地调节供需关系的有效手段。二是经历了前些年的行业大低谷之后,行业新秩序正在逐步建立,企业间竞合关系逐步形成,市场稳定性正在增强。三是环保限产,伴随着蓝天保卫战、环保督察等一系列环保政策的推进,要求水泥企业在特定时间内停产或者进行环保改造,水泥供给受限,企业运营成本随之增加。这种情形下,企业会通过涨价来转嫁成本。

  当前的水泥是否具有可持续性,影响价格稳定的痛点是什么?

  以贵州为例,由于贵州往年基建进度快,投资大,一定程度上提前消耗了水泥需求潜力。进入2019年以来,随着扶贫攻坚工作的逐步收尾,贵州水泥需求步入下行周期,甚至被认为已步入东北断崖式下滑的后尘,水泥价格也一蹶不振。

  此外,贵州经济发展水平偏低,也导致水泥需求后续缺少支撑,加之产能严重过剩,今年以来贵州水泥行情几乎呈现一路下滑态势。相关数据显示:今年1-9月份贵州全省综合销量约7050万吨(其中包含1000万吨省外输出销量),产能利用率为65.7%,省内需求对产能使用率为56.4%,销量同比下滑10%,市场需求同比下滑26%。

  与全国水泥普涨截然相反的是贵州区域日前再现年内最低价水泥——180元/吨。较此前价格直降100元/吨左右,引起各方人士的普遍关注。而此次降价据悉是贵州区域一龙头企业采取不跟随其他企业一同涨跌的措施,意欲争夺更多市场份额。

  市场需求的不足,产能的严重过剩,叠加区域企业竞合关系变化,贵州区域的水泥价格大跌似乎在情理之中。这也给全国水泥行业敲响警钟,产能过剩问题就像一颗足以打破市场格局的定时炸弹,若不能从根本上解决,行业利润恐怕难以保持高增长。

  水泥企业何去何从?

  水泥行情大好给了竞争力相对较差的水泥企业一棵救命稻草,部分前些年已经停产或濒临停产的企业重新焕发生机,在当前利润日益增高的情况下也分得一杯羹。

  但需要指出的是,这些企业的获利某种程度上更像是龙头企业致力于提升行业效益后的“施舍”,在市场需求尚未断崖前形成的竞合关系让这些企业获利颇丰,但倘若市场需求的下滑,以及产能过剩的严峻性已经无法通过水泥价格的上涨来转移困境,利益面前,这些竞争力较差的企业是否能安然无恙?

  而另一方面,在目前的市场环境下,这些竞争力较差的企业之所以能够赚钱,主要在于其大量消耗自然环境资源,本质上是不公平竞争。随着国家和地区政府对于环保指标的监管日益严苛,这些企业在技术改进和资金投入方面会面临巨大的威胁和挑战,在市场份额竞争中将失去自己的优势。

  综上,笔者认为,在当前行情形势大好,各大水泥龙头企业纷纷通过产能置换新建、扩建竞争力更强的水泥熟料生产线之际,那些竞争力相对较弱的水泥企业或可通过收购、重组等方式退出水泥行业,在竞争还没有“头破血流”之前,将自己“卖出”好价钱不失为企业战略转型的一种有效途径。

  同时,水泥行业呈周期性发展,未来可能会有一个滑坡期,所以水泥企业更应眼光长远,提前布局,紧握当下利润稳上升的良好形势,在市场洗牌前提高自己的核心竞争力。一是要下足本钱,提升自身的技术装备,实现多功能并向高端高质量发展;二是深化去产能工作,推进企业超低排放、绿色矿山建设,以及绿色化、智能化改造等,在市场“寒冬”到来之前切实提高自己的竞争力。

  天下熙熙皆为利来,天下攘攘皆为利往。任何行业在市场经济面前,只有“打”出来的天下,没有“让”出来的利益!行业的趋好不在于利润上升后的“共同富裕”,而在于行业的成长是否符合绿色、公平,以及高质量的发展核心。

  水泥同仁们!真的应该居安思危了!

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Correlation

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.

2024-11-08 17:41:17

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the overall market demand in Northwest China has declined, some kilns have been shut down, and most prices are stable. For example, the cement market demand in Gansu is weak at present, especially in Lanzhou and its surrounding areas, the inventory of some manufacturers is not high.

2024-11-08 17:27:44

According to China Cement Market Data Center, cement prices in central and southern China rose steadily this week, pushing up 30-50 yuan/ton in Guangxi, and some low-priced enterprises reported an increase of 70 yuan/ton. This week, cement prices in eastern Hubei have gradually fallen back to the level before the last round of rise, and cement prices in many places in Hunan continue to rise.

2024-11-08 17:23:08

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in Chongqing in the southwest region is pushed up by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the implementation is to be observed; the price in Zhaotong in Yunnan is pushed up by 50 yuan/ton, and the implementation is to be observed; the price in Nanchong, Guang'an and Suining in Sichuan is pushed up by 50 yuan/ton, and the price in Yibin and Luzhou is partially dropped.

2024-11-08 17:19:35

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: Raw Materials Rise, Concrete Prices in Southwest China May Be Raised

2024-11-08 17:11:43

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: The market demand has weakened, and the price of commercial mixing in the northwest region has stabilized.

2024-11-08 17:02:18

The demand for concrete in North China is weak.

2024-11-08 16:18:52

Driven by the rising price of raw materials, the price of concrete in central and southern China has risen slightly..

2024-11-08 15:49:01

The weather is fine, the demand has recovered slightly, and the price of concrete is stable.

2024-11-08 15:25:26

On the 6th, leading enterprises in Shijiazhuang, Xingtai, Handan and other places in Hebei notified an increase in cement prices by 50 yuan/ton.

2024-11-07 15:19:04

With the support of special debt, the local capital situation has been improving and the downstream construction has been accelerated. In addition, the self-discipline awareness of enterprises has been strengthened, the intensity of peak staggering and production restriction has been strengthened, and the national cement prices continued to rise in October due to the favorable macro and real estate policies.

2024-11-07 15:05:51

On the 5th, some major manufacturers in the province pushed up the price of cement by 50 yuan/ton.

2024-11-06 17:29:51

On the 4th, Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan, Hengyang, Yongzhou, Chenzhou and other places once again tried to push up cement prices by 20-30 yuan/ton..

2024-11-06 15:40:33

At the beginning of October, the national cement price index (CEMPI) was 124.84 points, closing at 131.3 points at the end of the month, up 5.63% annually and 19.73% year-on-year.

2024-11-06 15:05:16

The three provincial associations agreed that the cement industry and enterprises should rationally and objectively understand the current situation of the industry, firmly establish the common values of the supremacy of industry interests, strengthen industry self-discipline, resist "involution" vicious competition, build industry ecology, reshape industry value, and jointly promote the healthy development of the industry.

2024-11-06 11:08:14

Asia Cement said in the third quarter report that looking forward to the fourth quarter, the demand for cement will pick up to a certain extent. With the support of increasing peak staggering efforts, the contradiction between supply and demand of cement will be alleviated in stages. It is expected that the results of the increase in cement prices in the third quarter will be maintained until the end of the year, and the benefits of cement enterprises are expected to usher in marginal improvement.

2024-11-06 10:05:59

In October, with the gradual decline of the national temperature, the northern project came to an end, and there was a small-scale rush to work in some areas, while the southern construction activities increased, the demand warmed up, and the shipment volume increased slightly. On the supply side, a number of sand and gravel aggregate projects have been successfully put into operation, production capacity has been released rapidly, sand and gravel prices have stopped falling slightly, and have entered a narrow range of volatility.

2024-11-05 11:42:36

From the recent market situation, the overall cement industry in the fourth quarter has a better expectation, the company has certain advantages in cost control and other aspects, will better benefit from the current round of price recovery and the impact of the rising boom stage.

2024-11-05 11:03:06

From 3 to 4 days, major enterprises in Guangxi have been notified to raise the price of various kinds of cement by about 30-70 yuan/ton.

2024-11-04 15:06:13

According to China Cement Market Data Center News, in the central and southern regions, this week, Guangdong Pearl River Delta and Hainan regions continue to push up the cement price by 30-60 yuan/ton, and the implementation will wait and see; Guangxi region is planning to push up the cement price by 30-50 yuan/ton. After the two lakes region experienced many times of pushing up, the price was temporarily stable this week.

2024-11-01 17:35:36

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places in Yunnan in southwest China has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Liangshan and Panzhihua in Sichuan have also begun to push up by 50 yuan/ton. In Guizhou, some major manufacturers in Qiannan, Qianxinan, Zunyi, Tongren and other regions have recently raised the cement price by 10-40 yuan/ton, while the quotation in other regions has been stable for the time being.

2024-11-01 17:32:29

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: The price of raw material cement in southwest China is pushed up, or the concrete market is pushed up.

2024-11-01 17:04:42

The concrete market in North China is relatively stable.

2024-11-01 17:02:53

The Northeast concrete market is weakening.

2024-11-01 16:52:08

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: This week, the northwest market is mainly stable.

2024-11-01 16:50:09

Cement prices in central and southern China are generally rising, and concrete prices may rise..

2024-11-01 15:49:36

Prices in some parts of East China have been raised this week, but the overall price has been stable.

2024-11-01 15:14:55

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the demand for cement will pick up to a certain extent, and the contradiction between supply and demand of cement will be alleviated in stages with the support of increasing peak staggering efforts in various regions. It is expected that the results of cement price increase in the third quarter will be maintained until the end of the year, and the benefits of cement enterprises are expected to usher in marginal improvement.

2024-11-01 11:10:16

On November 1, major enterprises in Hainan Island again notified an increase of 60 yuan/ton in the price of various types of cement.

2024-11-01 10:09:33

The incorporation of the cement industry into the national carbon market will have a significant impact on cement enterprises in terms of production and operation, data control, transaction costs, energy saving and carbon reduction investment. With the carbon quota from basic satisfaction to tight reduction, it will effectively promote production reduction, thereby affecting competitiveness and supply and demand pattern.

2024-11-01 09:52:46

Recently, the domestic temperature has dropped, local demand has dropped compared with the previous period, and the price of concrete market is mainly in a narrow range. From October 24 to October 30, the national concrete price index closed at 112.12 points, down 0.02% annually and 10.33% year-on-year.

2024-11-01 01:06:33

Some major manufacturers in Fujian plan to raise the price of various types of cement by about 30 yuan/ton again from November 1, and the implementation situation remains to be seen.

2024-10-31 13:40:09

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

Based on the market situation of the cement industry and the demand for high-quality and low-carbon development of Conch Cement, Conch will strengthen the research and development of technologies such as energy saving and carbon reduction, green environmental protection, clean energy and low-carbon cement. The main research directions of Conch's scientific and technological innovation in the future are as follows: 1. Research and development project of raw material and fuel substitution in the cement industry; 2. Research and development project of cement clinker quality improvement; 3. Energy-saving and carbon-reducing technical equipment R & D project; 4. Clean and green energy R & D and manufacturing project; 5. Future carbon technology industry exploration project.

2024-10-29 16:34:25

Since October, the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market has been relatively stable and has not risen yet. At present, the 4600t/d production line of the local cement industry has been ignited recently, which is expected to have a certain impact on the eastern Guangdong market in the short term. However, the increase in the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta and Fujian can lay a certain foundation for the increase in the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market.

2024-10-29 09:40:30

The price of cement in Yunnan region has risen sharply since the 27th.

2024-10-28 11:30:23

Since the 26th, enterprises in various regions in Jiangxi have again notified an increase in cement prices by 30 yuan/ton..

2024-10-28 09:44:51

Recently, the construction in the south is relatively active, the local market demand is warming up, coupled with the increasing pressure on the cost side, the market price trend is stable and small. From October 17 to October 23, the national concrete price index closed at 112.14 points, down 0.02% annually and 10.65% year-on-year.

2024-10-25 17:29:24

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the Pearl River Delta in central and southern Guangdong is planning to continue to push up cement prices by 30-50 yuan/ton around the end of the month, and the Guangxi region is temporarily stable. Cement prices in Hunan and Hubei continued to rise by 30-50 yuan/ton.

2024-10-25 17:23:23

The pressure of market competition in East China is greater, and the rise in concrete prices is fatigue..

2024-10-25 16:49:34

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: The overall demand has weakened, and the price of concrete in the northwest region is mainly stable.

2024-10-25 16:30:17

The concrete market in Northeast China is stable, the demand is weak and the price is stable.

2024-10-25 16:14:15

The price of concrete in North China is affected by the rise of raw materials, and there are signs of price increase.

2024-10-25 16:09:22

Prices of raw materials in central and southern China continue to rise, and the concrete market has not yet fluctuated significantly..

2024-10-25 15:28:18

Southwest raw material cement prices push up, or push up the concrete market..

2024-10-25 14:53:28

On October 24, the "2024 China Cement Double Carbon Conference and the 12th Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference" was held in Wuhu, Anhui Province. Gao Dengbang, President of China Cement Association, Zhu Shengli, General Manager of Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd., Lv Zhijian, President of Xinjiang Building Material Industry Association, Ma Weiping, Chairman of OCC, Jiang Dehong, Vice President and Chief Engineer of Tianshan Materials Co., Ltd., Li Jian, Associate Researcher of Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences, Fan Yueming, Professor of South China University of Technology, Zhuge Wenda, Chairman of Leishan Cement Co., Ltd., Century Xinfeng, Hubei, Yan Haochun, Technical Director of China National Inspection and Testing Holding Group and General Manager of Certification and Evaluation Center.

2024-10-24 16:55:38

Since the 23rd, enterprises in Wuhan and surrounding eastern Hubei have once again notified an increase in the price of bulk cement by 50 yuan/ton and bagged cement by 30 yuan/ton.

2024-10-24 14:00:21

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.