Recently, listed cement companies such as BBMG Group and Tianshan Stock have responded to investors' concerns and made a similar judgment: cement prices are expected to rise reasonably in the second half of the year . Jinyu Group said that due to "marginal improvement of demand and strengthening of supply constraints", market prices are expected to achieve a reasonable rebound; Tianshan shares predicted that cement prices in the fourth quarter "fluctuated and rebounded as a whole".
For the cement industry, which is mired in losses, this is undoubtedly a placebo. But in addition to the consolation, what should be asked is: How much can this round of rebound "return"? Is it a sign that the industry is bottoming out or an analgesic that can only delay pain? Why does the
price "return"?
Objectively speaking, this round of "rebound" expectation is not groundless, and the support mainly comes from two aspects.
First, the loss is too severe. After the loss of the whole industry in the first half of the year, the willingness of enterprises in the region to cooperate has increased significantly-price insurance and price increase have become the common demand of everyone in the second half of the year.
Second, seasonal factors. The fourth quarter is the peak season of traditional construction, which brings periodic support to the demand side, while at the end of the year, peak staggering production is superimposed on compliance production constraints, and both ends of supply and demand work at the same time, so there is room for price repair.
AI map, for reference
only, how high is the "gold content" of the rebound?
But the problem is precisely here: the expected rebound is largely based on "production cuts" and "policy hedging", rather than real rise in demand.
Looking at demand, the downward trend of cement has not changed. In the first half of the year, the national cement output was 736 million tons, down 8% from the same period last year, and the output hit a new low in 17 years. It is estimated that the annual cement output in 2026 will be around 1.57 billion tons, with a year-on-year decline of about 7%.
Looking at the supply, the effect of peak staggering production is decreasing. For many years, peak staggering production has been the "stabilizer" of the industry, but in the context of a sustained sharp decline in demand, its implementation basis has gradually disintegrated. It is estimated that in the first half of 2026, the real utilization rate of clinker production capacity will be around 48%, less than half, which is at a low level.
Looking at the price, the ceiling of this round of "rebound" is actually not high. In the first half of 2026, the national cement price opened low and went down all the way, reaching the lowest level in the same period in recent years. According to the report of China Cement Network, it is difficult to change the downward trend of demand, there is still a process to promote capacity management in the industry, and it is difficult for enterprises to diverge and coordinate. It is expected that the rebound of cement prices in the second half of the year may be limited, and the overall price center will continue to move down. The wording
of Jinyu Group's "reasonable rebound" and Tianshan Stock's "fluctuation rebound" is cautious in itself.
Don't treat analgesia as a treatment
. This is the most alarming place.
Price rebound itself is normal, fearing that some enterprises misread "rebound" as "warming up", mistaking "analgesic measures" such as production reduction and peak staggering as "treatment plan", thus slowing down the pace of capacity removal in temporary respite. The real and reasonable return of profits in the
cement industry has never been achieved by reducing production, but by rebalancing supply and demand and effectively withdrawing production capacity.
In the face of the certainty of long-term downward demand, the real account of the cement industry is not that the price can "return" a few points in the second half of the year, but that the pain of the loss of the whole industry in the first half of the year can be exchanged for the effective withdrawal of production capacity. The real capacity utilization rate of clinker is less than half, and the root of the imbalance between supply and demand is still there; the price rebound can wait, but the capacity can not afford to wait.
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