Market sources said that around February 10, the price of bulk cement in Nanning, Yulin, Beihai and other areas of Guangxi will be raised by 20 yuan/ton.
Earlier, on January 29-30, many places in Guangxi had raised the price of bagged cement by 20 yuan/ton. Local cement enterprises said that the price increase of bulk cement was a follow-up adjustment after the last price increase of bagged cement.
In Guangdong, local enterprises said that since February 9, the price of clinker in the whole region has been raised by 10 yuan per ton, while the price of bulk cement in Shenzhen, Dongguan, Huizhou and Guangzhou has been raised by 10 yuan per ton.
In addition, another local enterprise in Guangdong said that on February 3, the bagged cement sold by the enterprise to the Pearl River Delta region had been raised by 20 yuan/ton. According to the
integrated market news, in the current round of cement price increase, the pace of Guangdong and Guangxi has been almost constant, with an increase of 10-20 yuan/ton. What is the trend of the cement market
in the Pearl River Delta in the New Year?
In 2022, the cement market in the Pearl River Delta experienced the most tragic year in recent years. Around May
last year, as the decline in demand exceeded the psychological expectations of cement enterprises, a fierce price war broke out in the cement market of the Pearl River Delta, and the competition among enterprises became white-hot.
Subsequently, the cement market price went down almost all the way, and the actual transaction price was once lower than cost line. The Pearl River Delta market, once known as the fragrant baboon, has become one of the national market depressions. Does
the recent increase in cement prices in Guangdong mean that the Pearl River Delta market will recover? A person in the
industry said, "At present, the Spring Festival has just ended, the project has not been fully launched, this round of price increases is mainly affected by factors such as peak staggering production.".
According to the 2023 peak-shifting production schedule released by Guangdong Cement Association in December last year, Guangdong Province plans to temporarily shut down kilns for 60 + 20 days/kiln for peak-shifting production throughout the year,
of which the first stage: from January 1 to April 30, 2023, the number of peak-shifting days is 40 + 10 days.
The second stage: from July 1 to September 30, 2023, in the hot summer days and the rainy season of typhoon, the number of days of off-peak shutdown is 20 + 10 days. Finally, it will be adjusted according to the specific target requirements of the provincial government authorities for energy consumption control. A
local cement company also said, "Now many workers are still celebrating the New Year, the market demand has recovered to about 20%", and for the market trend in 2023, the company is cautiously optimistic, "it is estimated that the first half of the year is not good, but the second half of the year will be better, the overall market situation is better than last year".
According to its introduction, the real estate situation in Guangdong in 2023 is still difficult to recover, and the driving force for cement demand is limited, but the driving effect of infrastructure on cement demand will be further reflected. With the landing of infrastructure projects in the later period, cement demand is expected to pick up in the second half of the year.
Relevant data show that more than 460 projects were started and signed in Guangzhou in the first quarter, with a total investment of more than 680 billion yuan; the first 266 major projects started in Shenzhen this year have a total investment of more than 329.5 billion yuan.
However, local cement enterprises also said that the capital problem is the key to the landing of infrastructure projects, and also the key to the effective support of the cement market recovery.
Influenced
by the geographical location, the Pearl River Delta market is vulnerable to the impact of foreign cement, especially the upstream Guangxi, which has always been the main source of cement imports from Guangdong. In
2023, the impact of Guangxi cement on Guangdong market may be more severe.
On the one hand, the cement market demand in Guangxi is limited. In terms of real estate, investment in real estate development in Guangxi fell by 38.2% in 2022, exceeding the national average by 28.2 percentage points, ranking second to last in the country.
Local cement enterprises judge that the real estate market in Guangxi is still difficult to boost in the new year, but with the dissipation of the impact of the epidemic, the civil market will improve slightly, coupled with the recovery of infrastructure demand, the overall demand for cement in Guangxi may increase slightly throughout the year.
However, even so, the probability of cement demand in 2023 in Guangxi is still difficult to compare with previous years.
On the other hand, a large number of new production capacity in Guangxi began to release. According to the "2022 Top 100 List of China's Cement Clinker Production Capacity" published by China Cement Network, the new clinker production capacity of Guangxi reached 11.873 million tons in 2022, ranking first in the country, followed by Hunan, Shandong, Jiangxi and Xizang with a total production capacity of 11.315 million tons. In 2023, another 3 million tons of clinker production capacity may be put into operation. In
recent years, a large number of cement clinker production lines have been put into operation in Guangxi, one of the main reasons is the convenient water transportation of the Xijiang River and the location advantages of radiating the Pearl River Delta market.
Nowadays, with the release of cement clinker production capacity in Guangxi, the market pressure in Guangdong may further increase in 2023. A large local cement enterprise
in Guangdong said frankly that in recent years, the construction of Xijiang shipping has been continuously promoted, and the transport capacity has been rising, which has created more convenient conditions for Guangxi cement to enter the Guangdong market. Nowadays, with the release of a large number of new production capacity, the Guangdong market will face a more severe test.
2023 is the key year for economic recovery. With the issuance of the Outline of the Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035) by the State Council and the introduction of stimulus policies in infrastructure, real estate and other fields, the market structure of the cement industry has entered a game stage. China Cement Network will hold the " 2023 China Cement Industry Summit and Award Ceremony " on March 15-16, 2023 in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, to discuss in depth the macroeconomic trend and the development direction of the cement industry, gather the power of the spark, promote the high-quality development of the industry and create a better future.
浙公网安备33010802003254号