"It is expected to last for at least another three years." Recently, a person in charge of a cement enterprise used the word "endure" to summarize the current situation of the industry when communicating with China Cement Network. In his view, in the next three years, enterprises with poor competitiveness will be eliminated one after another, and the direction of the surviving enterprises, whether they take the road of restructuring or transformation, has gradually become clear.
This judgment is not alarmist. In fact, from demand, price to profit, the core indicators of the cement industry are still deteriorating at an accelerated pace. Behind the word "endure" is a deep adjustment that has not yet bottomed out. In the first half
of 2026, the national broad infrastructure investment fell by 2.4% year-on-year, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over 2025, and the investment in real estate development fell by 18% year-on-year, the largest decline in history. The two demand engines stalled at the same time-the deep bottom of real estate dragged down the consumption, the infrastructure turned from positive to negative to support the fatigue, and the demand for cement continued to decline. From January to June, the national cement output was only 736 million tons, down 8% from the same period last year, a new low in the same period of 17 years. It is estimated that the annual cement output in 2026 will be around 1.57 billion tons, with a year-on-year decline of about 7%. More than
3 billion tons of cement production capacity is facing less than 1.6 billion tons of cement demand, and the serious imbalance between supply and demand is unprecedented. Under the serious mismatch between supply and demand, cement prices continued to bottom out. In the first half of 2026, the national cement price opened low and bottomed out all the way, falling to the lowest level in the same period in recent years, and the decline has not stopped so far. By the end of June, the national cement price index recorded 287.08 points, down 7.9% from the beginning of the year and 15.4% year-on-year.
According to the current situation, leading enterprises can not reach a consensus on market coordination and production control, cement prices continue to fall, 2026 or become the bottom of the current downward cycle of profits, the whole industry into a loss state. If the loss dilemma can force enterprises to take the initiative to increase efforts to control production and guarantee prices, prices will rise to a certain extent, and the industry is expected to get rid of the overall loss situation, but it is also difficult.
Elimination is not only a pain, but also a "necessary operation"
for the industry. Behind every fallen cement enterprise, the livelihood of a large number of employees and the local economy are linked, which makes people sigh. Industry shuffling has never been a cold number game, every loss, every shutdown, are related to the jobs of millions of households.
However, we must face up to the fact that, according to industry statistics, the actual production capacity of cement clinker exceeds the registered production capacity by about 40%, which has long been free from industry management, industry regulation and market regulation. For a long time, it has become the fundamental reason that the effect of capacity management policy is not obvious, market regulation is difficult to take effect, and the problem of serious overcapacity is difficult to solve. Some enterprises have long relied on overproduction to fight price wars, grab orders below cost prices, and regard vicious competition as competitiveness-the elimination of such enterprises is precisely the blessing of the industry.
Head enterprises optimize their layout through mergers and reorganizations, and small and medium-sized enterprises withdraw or are integrated under the pressure of capital and cost. The industrial integration path of "supporting the superior and eliminating the inferior" is the only way for the industry to move towards high-quality development.
The cement industry still has irreplaceable value
. Despite the grim situation, the cement industry still has its necessity and significance. Urban renewal, water conservancy pipeline network, energy infrastructure, transportation hub-every major infrastructure project is inseparable from cement.
More importantly, the industry is not flat. Green low-carbon transformation, ultra-low emission transformation, collaborative disposal of urban solid waste, overseas capacity layout.. Cement industry is reshaping the core of the industry.
Winter will pass. When production capacity is cleared, supply and demand return to a tight balance, and industry concentration is further enhanced, the remaining enterprises will usher in a new cycle of more orderly competition, healthier profits and more sustainable development.
Get through it, not to live, but to be reborn.
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