of 2026, as the first year of the "15th Five-Year Plan", the active fiscal policy continued to advance, but the downstream construction demand was weak due to the dual impact of the crowding out of debt funds and the deep adjustment of the real estate market.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment (the original three calibers) in January-June 2026 was-2.4% year-on-year, down 11.3 percentage points from the same period last year, and turned to negative growth for the first time since 2022. At the same time, the national real estate development investment fell by 18.0% year-on-year, an increase of 6.8 percentage points over the same period last year, and the drag of the real estate side on the overall investment further intensified.
Figure 1: Downward trend in real estate and infrastructure investment growth (%)

Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
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