2025, the issuance speed of government bonds was slightly faster than that of the same period last year, but it was still at the middle level in the past five years, and there was no significant acceleration. At the same time, due to the concentrated flow of bond funds to the debt sector during the year, the approval of infrastructure projects is relatively strict, and the growth rate of real investment continues to decline. In terms of real estate, the sales of new houses have weakened again after the periodic improvement, which makes it difficult to form a sustained good situation, and the situation of enterprise funds in place is still unsatisfactory. In addition, the scale of land transactions has further shrunk, restricting the scale of new construction. In this context, the construction indicators of the real estate industry continue to shrink, and the decline in investment continues to widen.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) in January-June 2025 was 4.6%, down 0.8 percentage points from the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, investment in real estate development nationwide fell by 11.2% year-on-year, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the same period in 2024.
Figure 1: Downward trend in real estate and infrastructure investment growth (%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
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