thermal coal is directly related to the production cost and operating efficiency of the cement industry. How to scientifically predict the price trend of thermal coal in 2026 and effectively deal with the risk of coal price fluctuation is an important prerequisite for the stable operation of cement enterprises. To this end, China Cement Network invited Chen Tianyu, assistant general manager of China Coal Resources Network, to interpret the above focus issues, providing professional reference for the cement industry to judge the market and formulate coping strategies.
Chen Tianyu believes that the recent turbulence in the international energy market, but domestic coal prices have continued to fall, standing at the current time point to predict the trend of power coal prices in 2026 can not simply look at the unilateral rise and fall. This year, the thermal coal market is divided inside and outside, and the domestic policy level continues to require the role of coal supply guarantee, enhance the elasticity of production and supply and the ability of system regulation. In 2026, the output and supply of raw coal are expected to increase steadily, and the social inventory is expected to maintain a high level, so as to enhance the ability of market regulation. International coal supply is expected to decrease due to the adjustment of domestic policies in Indonesia, the increase of export uncertainty, and the high energy prices supported by geopolitical conflicts, which are upside down with domestic coal prices. On the demand side, when the inventory of power plants is maintained at a reasonable level and the proportion of new energy generation is further increased, the process of transformation from thermal power to peak shaving will also be accelerated, and the demand for thermal coal will be difficult to release centrally.
In Chen Tianyu's view, in 2026, the work of stabilizing real estate will continue to advance, and the stimulus to the demand side will be strengthened. At the same time, the pace of construction of guaranteed housing and improved housing will be accelerated, and the new construction area of real estate will be further narrowed. In terms of infrastructure construction, the central government has increased its fiscal deficit, continued to ease local financial pressure, and increased the start-up rate of key infrastructure projects. However, under the "15th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure construction may be inclined to new infrastructure construction, with low dependence on cement, and cement production will continue to decline. At the same time, under the requirements of energy saving and emission reduction and carbon peak, the unit coal consumption of cement industry is expected to continue to decrease, and the coal demand of building materials industry is expected to decrease by 2-3%. The coal consumption of the chemical industry is still the main growth point of the demand for thermal coal. With the continuous production of new chemical projects and the significant fluctuation of international oil prices due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts, the output of coal-to-oil, coal-to-methanol and coal-to-synthetic ammonia will continue to increase, which will continue to drive the increase of coal consumption in the chemical industry. This year, the overall supply and demand of power coal is expected to show a tight balance, and the price center is expected to move up slightly, but the volatility will intensify, showing a pattern of "top, bottom" interval shocks.
Chen Tianyu said that in 2026, the cement industry will face the dual pressures of further exploration of demand and the upward movement of the cost-side coal price center and the intensification of fluctuations. The cost control ability of cement enterprises directly determines the living space of enterprises. Coastal enterprises can moderately increase the proportion of domestic coal purchases and make use of the domestic off-season price window period to replenish the warehouse. At the same time, we should pay close attention to the geopolitical situation and establish a flexible price early warning mechanism. When the international coal price is adjusted back and the import profit window is opened, we should decisively lock in high-quality import resources. Secondly, the high coal price is also forcing the cement industry to make profits, which can further increase the substitution of new fuels, such as industrial waste, biomass fuels, etc., while reducing costs, it can also meet the rigid requirements of carbon reduction.
On April 9-10, China Cement Network will hold the 15th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony in Hangzhou. At the same time, the " Cement Economy Fifty People Forum (C50) " was held. The Summit will build a platform for the docking of supply and demand and the collision of ideas, explore the path of green transformation and intelligent upgrading from the dimensions of macroeconomic insight, industrial chain synergy and technological innovation breakthroughs, plan a layout for the "15th Five-Year Plan" green development of the industry, and work together to create a new chapter of high-quality development! At that time, Chen Tianyu, Assistant General Manager of China Coal Resources Network, will be invited to attend the " 15th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony " and make a keynote report on the theme of "2026 Power Coal Market Outlook"!
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