According to relevant forecasts, the coal price center in 2025 will be 5-10% lower than current level. On
the supply side, domestic production capacity has increased significantly, for example, the annual output or recovery of Shanxi in 2025 has increased by 44 million tons, and Xinjiang's coal export volume (railway + highway) is driven by policy support and economy, and may continue to grow; At the same time, imported coal is expected to remain at a high level of about 500 million tons, further exacerbating the loose supply pattern in the domestic market. On the
demand side, thermal power demand will play the role of "ballast stone", but it is mainly stable and the increment is limited. Influenced by the macroeconomic environment and the real estate industry, the output of large coal users such as steel and cement will continue to decline, and the coal demand will probably be weak in 2025 .
Cement is a major coal consumer, and the standard coal consumption per ton of clinker is 100-120 kg, accounting for about 40% of the production cost of clinker (affected by the change of coal price, this proportion may rise considerably). The reduction of coal price is conducive to reducing the production cost of enterprises, but in fact, for the cement industry in 2025, the coal price will be reduced. On the contrary, the benefits of the cost side may aggravate the industry dilemma and form a "low price dilemma" .
After these years of development, the domestic cement industry has already formed an effective cost transmission mechanism.
The high price of coal makes the price of cement "famous" . When the coal price rises, enterprises can use the "cost-driven" price adjustment mechanism to guide the pressure and promote the cement price increase on the grounds of rising costs and maintaining reasonable profit margins, and the high cost is also more conducive to maintaining the stability of cement prices. Under the downward environment of coal price, enterprises lose the grasp of price increase, and under the pressure of overcapacity, it is more likely to trigger price stampede.
It is estimated that if the coal price falls by 100 yuan, the cost space of about 10 yuan/ton can be released theoretically, but under the current supply and demand pattern, these spaces may all be converted into price competition chips .
In addition, as the "hard expenditure" of cement production, the difference of clinker coal consumption among mainstream cement enterprises is not particularly large, and high coal price is conducive to raising the production cost of the whole industry, and bringing greater financial pressure to enterprises, which is conducive to the formation and stability of the "competition and cooperation relationship" in the market.
Although the decline of coal price has reduced the direct cost of cement production, it may not be conducive to the stability of cement market price in 2025, and the cement industry is still full of challenges in the new year. Where will the domestic cement market go
in 2025? How should the cement industry deal with the thorns ahead?
China Cement Network will hold the 14th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony in Hangzhou on March 13-14, 2025, and the C50 Market Forum at the same time. This summit will bring together industry elites and multi-resources to discuss and deal with the difficulties faced by the industry from the perspectives of optimal allocation of supply side, precise docking of demand side, deep insight into macro-economy and frontier promotion of technological innovation, and jointly create a new chapter for the industry!
