Since the implementation of the Measures for the Implementation of Capacity Replacement in the Cement and Glass Industry (2024 edition) on November 1, 2024, under the promotion of the unification of the registered capacity and the actual capacity, the cement industry has set off a wave of complementary capacity, which is called supplementary capacity in the industry.
According to incomplete statistics, up to now, nearly 60 production lines have announced relevant plans. In these schemes, according to the provisions of the Measures for the Implementation of Replacement, the corresponding production capacity has been shut down at the replacement ratio of 2:1, 1.5: 1 and 1:1 respectively, which seems to be making efforts to optimize the capacity structure of the industry, but in fact, the effect of supplementary production capacity on the industry's plan to reduce production capacity is not significant.
Why to supplement production capacity, from the current industry situation, the reasons are mainly concentrated in the following points:
1, part of the production line is suspected of building small. Or intend to report the scale of low production capacity to build large kilns, or in the history of project establishment, in order to obtain the convenience of approval, the scale of production capacity is lowered when submitting for approval. Or projects with overproduction as the main purpose and technical transformation (without expansion of production);
2. After technical transformation, the actual production capacity of the compliance production line has been improved, and the production capacity needs to be legalized;
3. With the skilled technical management, the production capacity has been improved, and there is room for overproduction. The use of off-peak production and illegal overproduction leads to a large deviation between the actual production capacity and the (approved) record production capacity, which needs to be legalized.
The author believes that in these cases, it is reasonable to supplement the actual capacity of the compliance production line due to technological transformation, after all, technological progress promotes capacity improvement, which is a normal phenomenon in the development of the industry.
However, it is undoubtedly a violation to approve the construction of small and large enterprises and to carry out transformation with the main purpose of overproduction. However, it is also illegal for production lines with overproduction space to use off-peak production to overproduce vigorously. These violations not only disrupt the market order, but also greatly aggravate the serious overcapacity of the industry.
Illegal production capacity should be controlled in accordance with the law and regulations from the very beginning, instead of being hastily done by supplementing production capacity after years of illegal "dividends", which is obviously unfair to law-abiding enterprises. After completing the replenishment of production capacity, how to punish the previous violations of enterprises is also worth considering by the industry regulatory authorities.
From many supplementary capacity replacement schemes, we can find that "non-mainstream" production lines frequently appear in project announcements. For example, 4000t/d increases to 5250t/d, 4500t/d increases to 5333t/d and so on. And there is a strange phenomenon that the same kiln path and the scale of production capacity are somewhat different, which makes people wonder whether the supplement of these production capacity is reasonable, whether it really achieves the original intention of the unification of the record production capacity and the actual production capacity, or whether it is just an arbitrary act of how much to make up first?
Generally speaking, the larger the production line, the more competitive it is in terms of cost control, energy efficiency and production efficiency. However, under the premise of "supplementary production capacity", how much benefit will the legalization of those illegal production lines by expanding the scale of production capacity bring to the results of capacity removal, optimizing the industrial layout, promoting the dynamic balance of supply and demand in the market, and promoting the high-quality development of the cement industry?
At the Ninth Congress of China Cement Association held last month, President Gao Dengbang pointed out in his work report that the contradiction of cement overcapacity is becoming more and more serious, and the situation of serious overcapacity in the industry has not changed. The first of the six suggestions for the future work of the new Council is to continue to grasp the main line of "reducing production capacity, stabilizing expectations and increasing benefits", actively carry out research and think about countermeasures, ask government departments for policies, form policy promotion, market guidance to promote the withdrawal of backward and excess production capacity from the market, stabilize demand expectations and enhance industry efficiency. Zhou Yuxian, the newly elected president, elaborated on the three tasks to be carried out. The first one includes uniting to lead the industry, strengthening the consensus on the irreversible downward trend of demand, and adhering to the requirement of combining short-term production with long-term capacity.
Under the dual pressure of serious overcapacity and insufficient market demand, the task of cement industry to reduce production capacity is extremely arduous. What the industry really needs is to take decisive measures to achieve real gold and silver to reduce production capacity and solve the problem of overcapacity. Otherwise, the situation of overcapacity in the industry will become more and more difficult to reverse, not to mention the formation of a healthy competitive market ecology, which will ultimately damage the healthy development of the entire cement industry.
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