On August 23, Hengdian Dongci released a record of investor relations activities. In the first half of
this year, the company 's photovoltaic business realized revenue of 8.054 billion yuan, an increase of 36.58% over the previous year, and photovoltaic products shipped 13.4G W, an increase of more than 65% over the previous year.
The original text is as follows:
1. Price transmission under "anti-involution"? What is the acceptance of price in domestic and foreign markets?
Answer: In terms of anti-involution, you can see that since the end of silicon materials, through the implementation of effective means such as production reduction, sales not below cost, and integration of enterprises in the chain, the recent spot and forward quotations have rebounded rapidly, and the component link quotations have also rebounded, but at present, the domestic terminal is still on the sidelines, and the price has not yet been fully marketized. It is expected that the rhythm of domestic installation will remain uncertain in the second half of the year, and the transaction price will gradually rise in the compromise between supply and demand. In this process, the upstream cost rises faster than downstream price adjustment, and some enterprises may have periodic profit pressure. At this stage, the overall acceptance of price increases in China is not very high, and we need to consider how to compromise with each other in the short, medium and long term. Overseas, the company has a certain brand and channel premium in the dominant market, and the price transmission is generally smooth; the price sensitivity of emerging markets such as South America and Brazil is high, and the acceptance is relatively low. The adjustment of value-added tax tax rebate may affect the expectation of medium and long-term prices, making our price persistence better than before in the follow-up price negotiations.
2. What is the impact of the US double-counter investigation on Indonesia?
A: In the face of the anti-dumping/countervailing investigation launched by the US against Indonesia, the Company has reviewed the cases of the four Southeast Asian countries, sorted out the differences and pre-positioned the risk list. The Indonesian base has considered that it may be affected by AD/CVD in the future, and has made some preliminary preparations. The company is actively promoting the preparation for responding to the lawsuit, and if it is tried objectively and fairly, it will have the opportunity to win a reasonable tax rate.
3. What is the profit impact of US reciprocal tariffs on the company's overseas bases?
Answer: Although Indonesia's equivalent tariff has been raised from 10% to 19%, after the implementation of the tariff, the company has negotiated with customers to share the tariff impact. The price of components in the US market has increased, and the tariff impact can basically be passed on to customers. Overall, there will be a slight impact on earnings, but it is in line with our expectations.
4. What is the impact of the rising price of silicon materials on the company?
Answer: In order to cope with the price rebound of silicon materials, the company has made preparations in advance to establish an appropriate amount of strategic inventory to reduce the lethality caused by the inconsistency between the upstream price increase and the downstream price transmission. The profitability of components in the second half of the year is expected to remain supportive. In the past few years, the company has been strong in sticking to downstream prices, especially in controlling the price risk of medium and long-term orders, which is also related to the moderate size of the company.
5. The company plans to improve the wattage of TOPCon high-efficiency components?
Answer: At the beginning of the year, the company set a target of 650W TOPCon positive power by the end of the year. Up to now, about half of the production capacity has reached 640 – 645W. It is expected that Q1 will achieve full coverage of 650 – 655W production capacity next year. For 660W and above high-power products, the technical reserve is ready, but the investment of single GW equipment is large. The company will take ROE as the core evaluation index, combine the progress of competitive technology and the rhythm of stock capacity clearance to decide whether to invest or not, and hold a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.
6. The progress of cost reduction of metallizing paste (silver-coated copper and copper paste) and how the company views these two technologies? The company's follow-up production line introduction plan?
Answer: From the perspective of cost reduction, copper paste is more advantageous in terms of cost reduction. From the perspective of actual import progress, silver-coated copper paste is better in terms of application progress and efficiency impact, and suppliers are more diversified. At present, the company still needs further evaluation, and there is no relevant production line introduction plan. Although the metallized slurry can reduce the cost by more than one cent per watt, the supporting equipment also needs to be invested. The company determines the priority of capital expenditure based on the ROE calculation results. At present, it pays more attention to the capital expenditure on power improvement.
7. From Q4 last year to the first half of this year, the gross profit margin of the photovoltaic sector fluctuated in each quarter. Can you look forward to the profit trend in the following quarters?
Answer: The high gross profit margin in the fourth quarter of last year was mainly due to the effectiveness of the strategic layout in the early stage, such as the volume of overseas business. Photovoltaic overseas production capacity has made a breakthrough in the first half of the year, and the shipment will be higher than expected last year. From the price point of view, the external factors are also changing, and the follow-up will gradually return to a more competitive level, and the level of profitability will gradually converge. In addition to overseas production capacity for specific markets, Q2 has recovered from Q1 in other regional markets, and is expected to be supported by certain business strategies in the second half of the year. Therefore, on the whole, the company will strive to maintain the overall quality of operation through multiple ways.
8. With the promulgation of the No.136 Detailed Rules, has the company calculated the elasticity of electricity price to this rate of return, for example, when can average price of electricity meet the IRR of 6%?
Answer: For the provinces that have issued detailed rules, the framework and guidance are still the main ones, and a stable market-oriented pricing model has not yet been formed. The actual transaction price and specific rules need to be gradually clarified in the operation of a large number of market-oriented projects, which can not be determined by a detailed rule. Especially for incremental projects, their electricity prices will be highly market-oriented, and the model will continue to adjust dynamically, which requires time to explore and balance step by step. As for the price level of IRR reaching 6%, it can be measured in theory, but in reality, it is difficult to determine simply because of multiple market factors. If the model can stabilize and superimpose the leverage of capital, there is still room for growth in demand in the long run. However, if the electricity demand is not improved and the market structure remains unchanged, the electricity price competition may intensify, which will affect the project income. At present, we pay more attention to key areas such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, continuously track the landing of rules and market changes, and dynamically optimize the calculation model to cope with uncertainties.
9. Current status of lithium battery business and all-pole ear technology planning?
Answer: The lithium battery business has maintained the strategy of "high production rate and increasing market share", and the share of the main products has increased steadily. In terms of application scenarios, the demand for high-power batteries in BBU and other scenarios is rising rapidly, and it is expected to form an incremental market of hundreds of millions of branches per year in the next few years, which we are also actively concerned about. In terms of follow-up planning, the company has completed the technical reserve of the whole polar ear, and will judge whether to invest in mass production next year based on its own development, market demand and capital return.
10. Products related to AI server in magnetic material business? Magnetic plate forward shipment and revenue planning?
Answer: The company's copper inductors for AI servers, filters for new energy vehicles and other devices have been supplied in large quantities, and the monthly revenue has rapidly increased from millions of yuan to tens of millions of yuan, and the subsequent growth rate and growth space are relatively promising. In the first half of this year, the company's overall shipment of magnetic materials was about 107000 tons, which was similar to the same period last year, but the product structure was obviously optimized and the average selling price was increased. The soft magnetic business has more downstream emerging application fields with faster growth; the plastic magnetic business has maintained a good gross profit margin and growth rate; the permanent magnetic business is affected by the diminishing marginal effect of "old for new", and the growth rate is expected to be in single digits.
11. The company implemented the interim dividend for the first time this year. What is the sustainability of the follow-up dividend?
Answer: Since listing, the company has implemented 18 cash dividends, with a cumulative amount of 3.76 billion yuan, and has continued to implement a relatively high proportion of cash dividends for many years. Especially in recent years, the proportion of cash dividends in the net profit of the year continued to increase. In 2024, the company's cash dividends plus share repurchases accounted for 55% of the net profit of the year. This year, while improving the quality and efficiency of its operation, it also actively responded to the national policy guidelines, increased the frequency of dividends and increased the intensity of dividends. In the medium term, it planned to pay a cash dividend of 610 million yuan, accounting for nearly 60% of the company's net return to its mother in the first half of the year. On the premise of ensuring the steady development of the company, the company will continue to implement better cash dividends as far as possible. Let investors share the operating results of the company's development.
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