[原创]山西水泥市场:上演“过山车”式发展

2014-03-26 10:45:00

山西省地处华北地区,在中原地区呈长条形,东与河北为邻,西、南隔黄河与陕西、河南相望,北与内蒙古毗连。自“十一五”以来,山西省经济发展呈现特有的“过山车”式增长。跟随全省经济的发展脚步,全省水泥工业在2008年进入了发展高潮,国内大型水泥企业纷纷入驻,产业结构快速调整,也推动了产能和产量的快速增长,水泥市场也上演了“过山车”式发展。

  山西省地处华北地区,在中原地区呈长条形,东与河北为邻,西、南隔黄河与陕西、河南相望,北与内蒙古毗连。自“十一五”以来,山西省经济发展呈现特有的“过山车”式增长。跟随全省经济的发展脚步,全省水泥工业在2008年进入了发展高潮,国内大型水泥企业纷纷入驻,产业结构快速调整,也推动了产能和产量的快速增长,水泥市场也上演了“过山车”式发展。

一、山西水泥市场运行现状

1.1、“过山车”式经济增长成山西省特殊现象

  山西省在“十一五”期间,经济实力显著增强,质量效益明显提高,地区生产总值年均增长达到11.1%。在此期间,全省经济遭遇2008年国际金融危机巨大冲击,经济增速陡然下滑至2008的8.5%和2009年的5.4%的低点,随后在一系列有利政策的强力刺激下,2010年经济增长13.90%,实现了由快速下滑到较快增长的“V”型反转,重回正常发展轨道。“十一五”山西省经济发展历尽艰辛,经济规模迅速扩大,最终实现了全省经济的平稳较快发展,为“十二五”时期的经济社会发展奠定良好的基础。“十二五”期间因在国家调整经济结构、促进改革、增速换挡的大背景之下,山西省的经济发展也逐渐趋缓,2011、2012和2013年实现经济增长13.0%、10.10%和8.90%,经济发展存在较大的下行风险和压力。2006至2013年山西经济增长“过山车”式的起伏变化成为了山西经济发展过程中的特殊现象。

图1:2006-2013年,山西省经济增长经历“过山车”式起伏变化

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

1.2、2008年之后,山西省固投增速超过华北平均水平

  在“十一五”期间,除2009年以外,山西的固定资产投资增速整体不及华北平均水平。2009年山西为化解2008年国际金融危机的巨大负面影响,扭转经济低迷的情势,将扩大区域固定资产投作为拉动经济增长最有效的工具,以通过大规模的投资有力拉动经济增长。2009年固定资产投资同比增长41.20%,成为同年华北地区固投增速最高的省份,此增速亦较以前年增速不超过30%有显著提升。2009年固定资产投资大幅度提升的这支强心剂在2010年地区经济的回升过程中发挥了重大作用。在2011至2013年山西地区的固定资产投资增速高出同期华北平均水平6~10个百分点,显示山西地区巨大的固定资产投入,为未来地区经济的跨越式发展打下坚实的基础。

图2: 2011年起山西固投增速已高出华北平均水平6~10个百分点

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

1.3、2009年起掀起交通建设高潮,房地产投资稳中向好

  基础设施建设与房地产开发投资为固定资产投资中的大头,其为拉动水泥消费需求最主要的力量。从2010至2013年的基础设施建设及房地产开发投资占固定资产投资的比例来看,呈现逐步降低走势,占比已由2010年的43.28%降至2013年的38.59%。其中,基础设施建设投资占固定资产投资的比例从2010年的32.57%回落至2011年的28.39%之后,近两年此比例又进一步的下滑,2013年较2012年的26.98%回落0.57个百分点至26.41%;而房地产开发投资占比固定资产投资的比例呈现稳步提高的趋势,由2010年的10.72%逐步提升至2013年的12.18%,当地良好的房地产市场发展不断吸引房地产的开发投资。

图3:2010-2013年基建及房地产投资占固定资产投资的比例下降

 数据来源:国家统计局、中国水泥研究院

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