This year, China has arranged 3.9 trillion yuan of new special bonds, the largest scale in the past years. From January to October 2024, 1109 new special bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of about 3896.5 billion yuan, and the completion progress reached 99.9%. With the support of special debt, the local capital situation has been improving and the downstream construction has been accelerated. In addition, the self-discipline awareness of enterprises has been strengthened, the intensity of peak staggering and production restriction has been strengthened, and the national cement prices continued to rise in October due to the favorable macro and real estate policies. Can cement market continue this rise
in November? Li Kunming, a cement analyst at the Cement Big Data Research Institute of China Cement Network, said that on the supply side, the north has entered the heating season to stagger the peak, while many areas in the south continue to stagger the peak independently, and the supply side is expected to be relatively stable as a whole; On the demand side, after the issuance of special bonds, the capital situation continues to improve, and the downstream construction activities will continue to strengthen, but the weather is getting colder, and the improvement of demand is expected to be limited. In general, the supply-demand relationship in the cement market continued to improve in November, coupled with the enhanced self-discipline awareness of enterprises and the strong willingness to rise, it is expected that the cement price will show a strong trend in November.
Concrete and gravel are not so optimistic. In terms of
concrete, Lin Jiayi, a concrete analyst at the Cement Big Data Research Institute of China Cement Network, predicted that in November, the lowest temperature in most parts of the north would fall below zero, construction activities would gradually stagnate, and in the south, although the weather conditions were still acceptable, the new order index of the construction industry did not rise to the boom zone. The actual number of new projects is still lower than same period in previous years, dragging down the overall market demand, competition among enterprises is still fierce, and it is difficult to raise the price of concrete. In addition, due to the strong willingness of upstream raw material enterprises to support the price, the concrete cost support is strong. Overall, the supply and demand fundamentals of the domestic concrete market remained weak in November. Under the influence of cost pressure, the concrete price index was mainly in a narrow range. In terms of
sand and gravel, Liu Xiaodan, a sand and gravel analyst at China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, predicts that in November, the northern market will enter a low temperature period, projects will stagnate one after another, demand will gradually decrease, and the temperature in the southern region will be pleasant, but with the end of the year approaching, the pressure of repayment in the downstream concrete market will increase. There are certain restrictions on the delivery of sand and gravel. At the same time, the supply of sand and gravel has been released at an accelerated pace, many projects are nearing completion, and the inventory level of sand and gravel continues to be high, putting pressure on the price of sand and gravel. Although the willingness of enterprises to raise prices is still strong, the imbalance between supply and demand makes it difficult for the price of sand and gravel to rise. It is expected that the price of sand and gravel will be shaken in November, and it is difficult to form a clear upward trend. At 3:00 p.m.
on November 8, the senior researchers of Cement Big Data Research Institute of China Cement Network will interpret the market changes from the aspects of supply, demand, macro-economy and so on. For more details, please pay attention to the live broadcast of "Sharing Hui · Building Materials Observation" cement network APP video line. Welcome to scan code to make an appointment for live broadcast.
