On November 3, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell further, with an average price of 16. How will the trend of lithium price develop in November? Will 150,000 yuan be the bottom price of lithium carbonate products? Does the reappearance of low-price trading of lithium
carbonate indicate that the lithium carbonate market is difficult to recover in November?
According to the spot price on November 2, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate on that trading day was 163,000 yuan/ton; The transaction price of electric carbon in the market is concentrated at 15.7-16.
It can be seen that Lanke Lithium is shipping bulk lithium carbonate at a price lower than spot and market price.
Affected by this, on November 3, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell further, with an average price of 16.
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In the third quarter, the company's output of lithium carbonate products was 11,700 tons, compared with 6,300 tons in the first and second quarters.
The average selling price and average profit of the company's lithium carbonate products also declined: in the second quarter, the average selling price of the company's lithium carbonate was 204,200 yuan/ton, while in the third quarter, it fell to 162,500 yuan/ton; In terms of profit, the company earned a net profit of 115700 yuan for every ton of lithium carbonate sold in the second quarter, while the figure in the third quarter dropped to 9.
According to the data of Zangge Mining, which also disclosed specific production and marketing data in the third quarter, the average price of lithium carbonate in the third quarter was 21.
As of the end of the third quarter, the company's inventory of lithium carbonate products was 0. As a reference, the company's inventory at the end of the first quarter of this year was as high as 0.
However, from the point of view of the strength of destocking, the company only reduced its inventory by 0.16 million tons in the third quarter, compared with 0
in the second quarter. In the third quarter, the company chose to sacrifice product prices and profits, but did not exchange for the acceleration of inventory. This means that the demand of downstream material factories and battery factories has not been significantly mobilized, and the willingness to receive goods is not strong, which affects the operation of lithium salt enterprises.
As Lanke Lithium has resumed some production scheduling in the third quarter, the supply has been relaxed, and the price of products in the fourth quarter may continue to be under pressure.
From the above case analysis, we can catch a glimpse of the plight of domestic lithium salt enterprises this year. After sorting out the third quarter operation data of 19 lithium salt listed companies
, Gaogong Lithium Power found that the revenue of 12 companies showed a downward trend.
operating costs, the operating costs of Salt Lake shares doubled to 41 in the third quarter of this year. Before that, the peak cost of the company in the current downward cycle of lithium prices did not exceed 2 billion yuan.
In addition, more than half of the enterprises in the table, the cost side of the ring-to-ring change is significantly higher than revenue side, which is behind the lithium salt enterprises are still affected by the upstream high-priced raw materials. Lithium salt enterprises with high self-sufficiency of raw materials, such
as Tianqi Lithium Industry, Yongxing Materials, China Mineral Resources and Chuanneng Power, have relatively realized the reduction of the company's operating costs. Only in the combination of Tianqi Lithium Industry and Ganfeng Lithium Industry, the revenue scale of the former in the third quarter is higher than that of the latter, while the cost scale is much smaller than that of the latter. The reason for the general pressure on the performance and cost of lithium salt enterprises in the
third quarter is that the import cost of raw materials is high and the speed of change lags behind the decline of the transaction price of lithium carbonate in the domestic market. In this case, some enterprises even have the situation of cost inversion, and the transaction price of lithium carbonate has been unable to cover the cost of raw materials and processing.
Another agency monitoring found that as of November 2, the total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 2% to 59800 tons, 9% to 107000 tons in the middle and lower reaches, 7% to 125000 tons in other links, and 10% to 3
% in smelters. At present, the stock of lithium carbonate is concentrated in the lithium salt plant, and the continued easing of supply will not be conducive to the price tightening and negotiation of the lithium salt plant.
Compared with the Lanke lithium industry, the more common practice in the market is to raise the price.
Industry insiders pointed out that there were obvious differences in the price of lithium carbonate in October. The price of lithium salt manufacturers was maintained at around 180,000 yuan, while the price of traders was at 16-16.
The market sentiment was empty. Can price of lithium turn around in the fourth quarter? At that time, the batch of lithium carbonate was traded at 24.1-25. The next day, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate under different statistical calibers was 12,000 yuan-1.
From this point of view, the auction price of bulk lithium carbonate can also be regarded as a signal of short-term lithium salt price trend to a certain extent. This time, Lanke Lithium Industry conducted a single lithium carbonate auction at a price lower than market price, which reflects the continued bearish market on the price of lithium salt.
Looking back at the spot market of lithium carbonate in October, it was found that on October 16, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate once recovered to a range of 170000 yuan, but it quickly returned to a state of decline three days later. Since October 23rd, the average spot price of lithium carbonate has been fluctuating around 160 thousand yuan/ton.
Why was the rise in the price of lithium carbonate in mid-October just a flash in the pan? The purchasing mentality of material factories and battery factories in the middle and lower reaches has changed from "buying up and not buying down" in 2022 to "not preparing and not mining", and the demand for lithium carbonate decreased by 5% in October.
For example, the average lithium carbonate inventory level of iron lithium manufacturers is maintained in the range of 7 days to 10 days, while the finished product inventory is about half a month to one month.
At the same time, the real benign demand has not recovered significantly, such as the year-on-year growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in September is still less than high level in 2022.
Secondly, after the price of lithium carbonate rebounded, some lithium salt factories began to resume production marginally, coupled with the spread and fermentation of the market news that a salt lake enterprise in Qinghai planned to concentrate on selling again in the near future, all of the above revealed that there was no expected signal of tension in the spot market, and it was not surprising that the price of lithium fell again.
So in November, how will the trend of lithium price develop? Will 150000 yuan be the bottom price of lithium carbonate products? In terms of
overseas raw material supply, the efficiency of ore shipping at the Australian mining end has increased, the import level has increased, the superimposed pricing model may change (from Q-1 to M + 1, M + 2), and the transaction price of 6% spodumene CIF in China has accelerated since October. At present, it has fallen below 2100 US dollars/ton (about 1. This will help lithium salt plants to reduce the pressure on the cost side.
Demand-side signals are equally complex.
From the perspective of terminal new energy vehicles, the positive signals are as follows: in September, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.51, down 1 from the previous month.
However, negative signals also coexist. According to the latest forecast of the Riding Federation, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in October will be around 890000, up 32% year-on-year, and the growth rate is still lower than last year.
In addition, a number of overseas companies, including LG New Energy, Panasonic and other battery companies, Ford, Volkswagen and other car companies, have recently announced the decision to postpone the construction of battery capacity. The sentiment of bearish market demand is also permeating the global market.As a "quasi-commodity", the price fluctuation of lithium
carbonate will have a greater impact on profits than cost fluctuations. Therefore, whether the terminal consumption performance in the fourth quarter can exceed expectations will become the focus of lithium power upstream enterprises.
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